2025
Week 18 · Saturday 4:30 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Buccaneers offensevsPanthers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Buccaneers, 18 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 16–14 and were favored the whole way, never below 59%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 11:15, 13 points for the Buccaneers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 11:15CARR.Dowdle FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 24, RECOVERED by TB-L.David at TB 29.78% → 90%
- 2Q4 3:10CARB.Young pass deep middle to T.McMillan to TB 8 for 40 yards (J.Parrish).4% → 16%
- 3Q4 0:03CARB.Young pass short middle to J.Coker to CAR 34 for 13 yards. Lateral to T.McMillan to CAR 36 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, touched at CAR 35, RECOVERED by…90% → 100%
- 4Q2 0:31TBB.Mayfield pass short left to C.Otton pushed ob at CAR 31 for 22 yards (N.Scott) [A.Robinson].67% → 75%
- 5Q4 2:12TBB.Mayfield pass short right to C.Otton to CAR 45 for 20 yards (T.Moehrig).84% → 92%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
B.Young led the Panthers at +4.9 EPA (24 of 35 for 266). B.Mayfield led the Buccaneers at +9.3 EPA (16 of 22 for 203).
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young100% | 24/35 | 266 | 2 | 1 | +6.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Dowdle53% | 7 | 50% | 10 | -7.1 | |
| C.Hubbard45% | 5 | 36% | 10 | +1.2 | |
| B.Young100% | 2 | 14% | -1 | -1.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Coker92% | 7 | 23% | 6 | 47 | 1 | 0.0 |
| T.McMillan88% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 85 | +4.5 | |
| T.Tremble90% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 38 | 1 | +4.0 |
| X.Legette31% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 22 | +0.3 | |
| R.Dowdle53% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 20 | +0.9 | |
| C.Hubbard45% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 7 | -0.9 | |
| B.Tremayne14% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 27 | +0.6 | |
| M.Evans45% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 5 | -0.9 | |
| J.Jr.31% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 15 | +0.7 |
Defense C.Rozeboom 1 INT, T.Moehrig 1 sack, K.Barnes 0.5 sacks, N.Scourton 0.5 sacks · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 0/1 FG
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 16/22 | 203 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +6.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving63% | 26 | 62% | 85 | -3.4 | |
| R.White33% | 7 | 17% | 23 | -2.2 | |
| B.Mayfield100% | 4 | 10% | 31 | +2.6 | |
| S.Tucker7% | 4 | 10% | -4 | -3.2 | |
| T.Johnson13% | 1 | 2% | 5 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Otton96% | 9 | 41% | 7 | 94 | 1 | +4.1 |
| E.Egbuka58% | 3 | 14% | 1 | 8 | -4.8 | |
| M.Evans75% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 34 | +3.2 | |
| R.White33% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 18 | +2.1 | |
| B.Irving63% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 13 | +0.6 | |
| C.Jr.70% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 8 | +0.9 | |
| P.Durham27% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| J.McMillan55% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 11 | +1.8 | |
| T.Johnson13% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 17 | +1.4 |
Defense J.Parrish 1 INT · Kicking C.McLaughlin 3/4 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Buccaneers
Buccaneers convert 42% of third downs (12th). Panthers allow 47% (30th).
Deep left is open
Panthers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.57 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Panthers give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (11th), against a league average of 7.3. Buccaneers' tight ends produce 5.1 (32nd).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Buccaneers gain 5.2 yards per play (24th). Panthers give up 5.6 (20th), with the league at 5.4.
The Panthers lead the series 25–24 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). The Buccaneers have won the last 2. Oct 25, 2026, at Bank of America Stadium: the Buccaneers won 43–13. Bryce Young started at quarterback for the Panthers and Baker Mayfield for the Buccaneers; Dave Canales and Todd Bowles coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | TB 43 at CAR 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | CAR 14 at TB 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 16 | TB 20 at CAR 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 17 | CAR 14 at TB 48 |
| 2024 · Wk 13 · OT | TB 26 at CAR 23 |
2025 records
| Panthers | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Away | 3–6 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | LLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 18.3 – 22.4 | 22.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Panthers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors CAR | CAR def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#19 | +0.07#23 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#24 | 45%#19 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#24 | 5.6#20 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#15 | 9%#10 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | +0.11#24 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 5%#27 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#24 | +0.01#27 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#27 | 4.4#21 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#12 | 47%#30 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#24 | 57%#14 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#9 | 130#13 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#32 | 61#25 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#32 | 6.7#11 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#13 | 29#13 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Panthers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.