2025
Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium
vs
Ravens offensevsBrowns defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Ravens, 17 for Browns. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Ravens won 41–17 and were favored the whole way, never below 81%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 12:12, 7 points for the Ravens.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 12:12BALC.Bojorquez punt is BLOCKED by J.Hummel, RECOVERED by BAL-S.Kane at CLE 29. S.Kane to CLE 24 for 5 yards (R.Hickman).87% → 94%
- 2Q3 11:46BALJ.Flacco pass deep right intended for D.Njoku INTERCEPTED by N.Wiggins [R.Smith] at BAL 34. N.Wiggins to CLE 5 for 61 yards (J.Bitonio).92% → 98%
- 3Q1 6:57BALC.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to BAL 28 L.Wester to CLE 49 for 23 yards (R.Jenkins).85% → 90%
- 4Q1 11:36CLEC.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 11, fair catch by L.Wester.13% → 17%
- 5Q1 10:03BALL.Jackson pass short left to T.Wallace to BAL 24 for 10 yards (G.Delpit).81% → 85%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Gabriel led the Browns at +3.4 EPA (3 of 3 for 19). L.Jackson led the Ravens at +10.2 EPA (19 of 29 for 225).
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Flacco90% | 25/45 | 199 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -26.7 |
| D.Gabriel10% | 3/3 | 19 | 1 | +3.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Judkins27% | 10 | 45% | 61 | +1.3 | |
| J.Ford48% | 6 | 27% | 31 | +1.6 | |
| D.Sampson23% | 4 | 18% | 6 | -0.8 | |
| J.Flacco90% | 1 | 5% | 8 | +1.3 | |
| I.Bond38% | 1 | 5% | 9 | +0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jeudy88% | 8 | 20% | 4 | 51 | -1.4 | |
| C.Tillman95% | 7 | 17% | 2 | 22 | 1 | -0.4 |
| J.Ford48% | 6 | 15% | 5 | 23 | -2.1 | |
| D.Njoku82% | 5 | 12% | 4 | 40 | -5.2 | |
| H.Jr.63% | 5 | 12% | 5 | 48 | +1.6 | |
| D.Sampson23% | 3 | 7% | 3 | 13 | 1 | +1.8 |
| I.Bond38% | 3 | 7% | 1 | 6 | -1.4 | |
| Q.Judkins27% | 3 | 7% | 3 | 10 | -1.1 | |
| J.Thrash27% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 5 | +1.0 |
Defense M.Garrett 1.5 sacks, D.Bush 1 sack, C.Thomas 0.5 sacks · Kicking A.Szmyt 1/1 FG (long 38)
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.Jackson95% | 19/29 | 225 | 4 | 3 | +9.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry61% | 11 | 52% | 23 | -2.8 | |
| C.Rush5% | 3 | 14% | -4 | 0.0 | |
| J.Hill39% | 3 | 14% | 7 | -1.5 | |
| L.Jackson95% | 2 | 10% | 13 | +0.8 | |
| M.Andrews80% | 1 | 5% | 2 | +0.7 | |
| Z.Flowers79% | 1 | 5% | 4 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers79% | 11 | 39% | 7 | 75 | +3.7 | |
| R.Bateman59% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 15 | -1.3 | |
| M.Andrews80% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 2 | -3.7 | |
| J.Hill39% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 18 | -1.8 | |
| D.Hopkins18% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 64 | 1 | +6.7 |
| T.Wallace50% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 25 | 1 | +3.7 |
| D.Walker23% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 26 | 2 | +7.2 |
| Z.Mitchell-Paden25% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.2 |
Defense N.Wiggins 1 INT, N.Madubuike 1 sack, T.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 2/2 FG (long 43)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Ravens average 5.2 yards per carry (1st). Browns allow 4.2 (17th).
Deep middle is open
Browns are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Ravens send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Browns give up 110 yards a game to wide receivers (1st), against a league average of 140. Ravens' wide receivers produce 114 (25th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Ravens gain 5.9 yards per play (6th). Browns give up 4.9 (5th), with the league at 5.4.
The Ravens lead the series 39–16 since 1999. Oct 18, 2026, at Huntington Bank Field: the Browns won 13–10. Deshaun Watson started at quarterback for the Browns and Tyler Huntley for the Ravens; Todd Monken and Jesse Minter coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | BAL 10 at CLE 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | BAL 23 at CLE 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 2 | CLE 17 at BAL 41 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | CLE 10 at BAL 35 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | BAL 24 at CLE 29 |
2025 records
| Browns | Ravens | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 8–9 |
| Division | 2–4 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 5–7 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 3–2 |
| Home | 3–6 | 3–6 |
| Away | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | LLLWW | LWLWL |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 16.4 – 22.3 | 24.9 – 23.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Browns' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BAL off | Favors BAL · Favors CLE | CLE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.03#11 | -0.09#4 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#14 | 40%#4 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.9#6 | 4.9#5 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#2 | 9%#13 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.04#24 | -0.13#3 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#27 | 10%#3 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.05#3 | -0.07#15 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.2#1 | 4.2#17 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#15 | 37%#8 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 49%#27 | 63%#22 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 114#25 | 110#1 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#17 | 52#16 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.2#17 | 7.1#14 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#22 | 27#8 | 32 | |
Ravens: EPA per throw
Browns: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.