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2025

2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

Week 3 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Soldier Field

Cowboys offensevsBears defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cowboys, 19 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

DAL offense CHI offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · DAL 14 · CHI 31

The Bears won 31–14; their low point was 35% at Q1 13:13. The Cowboys had been 54% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 4:19: C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD (46% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 4:21, 15 points for the Bears.

At kickoffDAL 54%DAL by 1.5 on the line

CHI low point35%Q1 13:13 · tied 0⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%5times the favorite changed

Biggest swing15 ptsCHI · Q1 4:21

CHI wins50%DAL wins

12345Turning pointCHI low 35%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q1 4:21CHIC.Williams pass deep left to L.Burden for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.56% → 71%+15 CHI
2Q2 6:27CHIC.Williams pass short left to D.Swift to DAL 23 for 41 yards (S.Williams).40% → 54%+14 CHI
3Q1 10:40CHIC.Williams pass deep left to R.Odunze for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.45% → 59%+13 CHI
4Q2 0:43CHIC.Williams pass deep middle to L.Burden to DAL 10 for 29 yards (D.Wilson; K.Elam).62% → 74%+12 CHI
5Q1 12:40DALJ.Williams left end to CHI 28 for 22 yards (T.Stevenson). FUMBLES (T.Stevenson), RECOVERED by CHI-T.Stevenson at CHI 28. T.Stevenson pushed ob at…36% → 44%+8 CHI
★Q2 4:19CHIC.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOODturning point46% → 52%+5 CHI

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 3

R.Flournoy led the Cowboys at +2.8 EPA (2 catches for 21). C.Williams led the Bears at +17.8 EPA (19 of 28 for 298).

Cowboys

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
D.Prescott86%	31/40	251	1	2	2	-1.9
J.III14%	3/5	41		1		-0.7

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
J.Williams59%	10	50%	76	-0.2
M.Sanders36%	9	45%	41	+0.3
K.Turpin66%	1	5%	4	-0.2

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
J.Ferguson57%	14	32%	13	82		0.0
G.Pickens82%	9	20%	5	68	1	+0.1
J.Tolbert88%	6	14%	3	24		-0.6
J.Williams59%	5	11%	5	16		-0.2
M.Sanders36%	3	7%	3	12		-1.0
K.Turpin66%	3	7%	2	64		+0.7
R.Flournoy32%	3	7%	2	21		+2.8
L.Schoonmaker36%	1	2%	1	5		-0.1

Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking B.Aubrey 2/2 FG (long 53)

Bears

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
C.Williams100%	19/28	298	4			+18.0

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
D.Swift61%	13	45%	33	-0.1
K.Monangai29%	6	21%	16	-1.9
C.Williams100%	5	17%	12	-0.2
D.Moore90%	3	10%	7	-1.2
O.Zaccheaus58%	1	3%	12	+0.6
L.III29%	1	3%	7	+1.3

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
R.Odunze90%	7	25%	3	62	1	+2.6
D.Moore90%	5	18%	4	21	1	+4.6
O.Zaccheaus58%	4	14%	3	24		+0.6
D.Swift61%	4	14%	3	45		+1.5
C.Loveland10%	3	11%	1	31		+0.6
L.III29%	3	11%	3	101	1	+5.3
C.Kmet93%	1	4%	1	10	1	+3.3
K.Monangai29%	1	4%	1	4		-0.5

Defense T.Edmunds 2 INT, K.Byard 1 INT, M.Sweat 1 sack, D.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 1/1 FG (long 30)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Wideouts feast

Bears give up 163 yards a game to wide receivers (26th), against a league average of 140. Cowboys' wide receivers produce 212 (1st).

Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Bears are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Cowboys send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Checkdowns go nowhere

Bears give up 27 yards a game to running backs (6th), against a league average of 32. Cowboys' running backs produce 18 (32nd).

Wash

Explosive play rate

Call this one even. Cowboys create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (17th). Bears give them up at 12% (29th).

The series · Cowboys and Bears since 1999, and this season's records10 meetings

The series is even at 5–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). This game is the latest meeting.

Cowboys at home3–2the Cowboys' record

In Chicago2–3the Cowboys' record

Most pointsCowboys 49 · Bears 452022 · 2013

Biggest winCowboys by 24 · Bears by 172007 · 2013

The last 5

2025 · Wk 3	DAL 14 at CHI 31
2022 · Wk 8	CHI 29 at DAL 49
2019 · Wk 14	DAL 24 at CHI 31
2016 · Wk 3	CHI 17 at DAL 31
2014 · Wk 14	DAL 41 at CHI 28

2025 records

	Cowboys	Bears
Overall	7–9–1	11–6
Division	4–2	2–4
Conference	4–7–1	7–5
Other conference	3–2	4–1
Home	4–3–1	6–2
Away	3–6	5–4
Last 5	LLLWL	LWWLL
Streak	Lost 1	Lost 2
Points a game	27.7 – 30.1	25.9 – 24.4

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cowboys' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · DAL offense against CHI defense

Stat	DAL off	CHI def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	+0.10#4	+0.03#21	+0.01
Success rate	47%#5	46%#25	44%
Yards per play	6.1#2	5.9#27	5.4
Explosive play rate	9%#17	12%#29	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	+0.16#6	+0.05#19	+0.01
Sack rate	5%#6	6%#23	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	0.00#8	-0.03#19	-0.05
Yards per carry	4.6#6	4.7#29	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	43%#8	41%#15	40%
Red zone TD rate	58%#18	59%#17	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	212#1	163#26	140
TE yards per game	48#20	52#14	53
TE targets per game	8.1#10	7.4#18	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	18#32	27#6	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Cowboys: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.577% of throws

+0.774% of throws

+0.827% of throws

Short

+0.1734% of throws

+0.4315% of throws

-0.0432% of throws

Bears: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.3742 throws

+0.9327 throws

+0.1654 throws