2025
Week 3 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Soldier Field
vs
Bears offensevsCowboys defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bears, 17 for Cowboys. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 31–14; their low point was 35% at Q1 13:13. The Cowboys had been 54% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 4:19: C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD (46% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 4:21, 15 points for the Bears.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 4:21CHIC.Williams pass deep left to L.Burden for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN.56% → 71%
- 2Q2 6:27CHIC.Williams pass short left to D.Swift to DAL 23 for 41 yards (S.Williams).40% → 54%
- 3Q1 10:40CHIC.Williams pass deep left to R.Odunze for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.45% → 59%
- 4Q2 0:43CHIC.Williams pass deep middle to L.Burden to DAL 10 for 29 yards (D.Wilson; K.Elam).62% → 74%
- 5Q1 12:40CHIJ.Williams left end to CHI 28 for 22 yards (T.Stevenson). FUMBLES (T.Stevenson), RECOVERED by CHI-T.Stevenson at CHI 28. T.Stevenson pushed ob at…36% → 44%
- ★Q2 4:19CHIC.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOODturning point46% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
R.Flournoy led the Cowboys at +2.8 EPA (2 catches for 21). C.Williams led the Bears at +17.8 EPA (19 of 28 for 298).
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott86% | 31/40 | 251 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1.9 |
| J.III14% | 3/5 | 41 | 1 | -0.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams59% | 10 | 50% | 76 | -0.2 | |
| M.Sanders36% | 9 | 45% | 41 | +0.3 | |
| K.Turpin66% | 1 | 5% | 4 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Ferguson57% | 14 | 32% | 13 | 82 | 0.0 | |
| G.Pickens82% | 9 | 20% | 5 | 68 | 1 | +0.1 |
| J.Tolbert88% | 6 | 14% | 3 | 24 | -0.6 | |
| J.Williams59% | 5 | 11% | 5 | 16 | -0.2 | |
| M.Sanders36% | 3 | 7% | 3 | 12 | -1.0 | |
| K.Turpin66% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 64 | +0.7 | |
| R.Flournoy32% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 21 | +2.8 | |
| L.Schoonmaker36% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 5 | -0.1 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking B.Aubrey 2/2 FG (long 53)
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 19/28 | 298 | 4 | +18.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift61% | 13 | 45% | 33 | -0.1 | |
| K.Monangai29% | 6 | 21% | 16 | -1.9 | |
| C.Williams100% | 5 | 17% | 12 | -0.2 | |
| D.Moore90% | 3 | 10% | 7 | -1.2 | |
| O.Zaccheaus58% | 1 | 3% | 12 | +0.6 | |
| L.III29% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Odunze90% | 7 | 25% | 3 | 62 | 1 | +2.6 |
| D.Moore90% | 5 | 18% | 4 | 21 | 1 | +4.6 |
| O.Zaccheaus58% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 24 | +0.6 | |
| D.Swift61% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 45 | +1.5 | |
| C.Loveland10% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 31 | +0.6 | |
| L.III29% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 101 | 1 | +5.3 |
| C.Kmet93% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 10 | 1 | +3.3 |
| K.Monangai29% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 4 | -0.5 |
Defense T.Edmunds 2 INT, K.Byard 1 INT, M.Sweat 1 sack, D.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 1/1 FG (long 30)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Bears
Bears convert 44% of third downs (6th). Cowboys allow 48% (32nd).
Deep middle is open
Cowboys are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.41 EPA per attempt. Bears send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Cowboys give up 6.8 targets a game to tight ends (12th), against a league average of 7.3. Bears' tight ends produce 8.9 (5th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Bears succeed on 45% of plays (11th) against a defense that allows 49% (32nd).
The series is even at 5–5 since 1999 (they first met in 2004). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 3 | DAL 14 at CHI 31 |
| 2022 · Wk 8 | CHI 29 at DAL 49 |
| 2019 · Wk 14 | DAL 24 at CHI 31 |
| 2016 · Wk 3 | CHI 17 at DAL 31 |
| 2014 · Wk 14 | DAL 41 at CHI 28 |
2025 records
| Cowboys | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7–9–1 | 11–6 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 4–7–1 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Home | 4–3–1 | 6–2 |
| Away | 3–6 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | LLLWL | LWWLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 27.7 – 30.1 | 25.9 – 24.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cowboys' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors DAL | DAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.07#8 | +0.17#32 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#11 | 49%#32 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#10 | 6.3#31 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#5 | 12%#31 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.09#9 | +0.22#31 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#2 | 6%#24 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#6 | +0.05#30 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#10 | 4.7#27 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#6 | 48%#32 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#17 | 67%#29 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 143#16 | 171#32 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 70#3 | 52#15 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#5 | 6.8#12 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#17 | 43#31 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Cowboys: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.