2025
Week 3 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · New Era Field
vs
Dolphins offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Dolphins, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 31–21 and were favored the whole way, never below 64%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 3:06, 14 points for the Bills.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 3:06BUFT.Tagovailoa pass short right intended for J.Waddle INTERCEPTED by T.Bernard at BUF 17. T.Bernard pushed ob at BUF 41 for 24 yards (J.Waddle).83% → 97%
- 2Q4 10:20BUFC.Johnston punts 49 yards to MIA 2, downed by BUF-S.Franklin. PENALTY on MIA-Z.Sieler, Roughing the Kicker, 15 yards, enforced at BUF 49 - No Play.64% → 76%
- 3Q4 7:23BUFJ.Allen pass short left to K.Shakir for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.80% → 90%
- 4Q4 12:22MIAT.Tagovailoa pass short right to T.Hill for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.15% → 24%
- 5Q1 4:11BUFJ.Allen pass short left to D.Kincaid for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.78% → 86%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Hill led the Dolphins at +5.2 EPA (5 catches for 49). J.Allen led the Bills at +12.7 EPA (22 of 28 for 213).
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tagovailoa100% | 22/34 | 146 | 2 | 1 | +0.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane77% | 12 | 48% | 62 | +0.1 | |
| O.II25% | 9 | 36% | 38 | 1 | +2.3 |
| T.Tagovailoa100% | 2 | 8% | 10 | +0.3 | |
| M.Washington54% | 2 | 8% | 20 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Hill87% | 10 | 30% | 5 | 49 | 1 | +5.2 |
| D.Achane77% | 9 | 27% | 7 | 29 | -4.6 | |
| J.Waddle87% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 39 | 1 | +2.5 |
| M.Washington54% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 12 | -2.1 | |
| T.Conner43% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 13 | -0.1 | |
| J.Hill56% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.3 |
Defense B.Chubb 1 sack, T.Dodson 1 sack
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 22/28 | 213 | 3 | 2 | +10.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook67% | 19 | 70% | 108 | 1 | +2.4 |
| J.Allen100% | 4 | 15% | 25 | +2.1 | |
| T.Johnson25% | 3 | 11% | 13 | +0.5 | |
| E.Moore23% | 1 | 4% | 11 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Kincaid55% | 6 | 22% | 5 | 66 | 1 | +5.0 |
| K.Shakir70% | 4 | 15% | 4 | 45 | 1 | +4.0 |
| K.Coleman75% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 20 | +1.1 | |
| E.Moore23% | 3 | 11% | 2 | 30 | -0.3 | |
| J.Cook67% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 10 | -1.0 | |
| T.Johnson25% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 8 | -0.4 | |
| T.Shavers20% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 24 | +3.0 | |
| J.Palmer43% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | +0.2 | |
| R.Davis7% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| J.Hawes43% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 5 | 1 | +1.2 |
Defense T.Bernard 1 INT · Kicking M.Prater 1/2 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Dolphins average 4.8 yards per carry (3rd). Bills allow 4.9 (30th).
Deep middle is open
Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Dolphins send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Bills give up 4.6 targets a game to tight ends (1st), against a league average of 7.3. Dolphins' tight ends produce 6.0 (25th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Dolphins gain 5.5 yards per play (14th). Bills give up 5.4 (16th), with the league at 5.4.
The Bills lead the series 35–20 since 1999. Nov 9, 2025, at Hard Rock Stadium: the Dolphins won 30–13. Tua Tagovailoa started at quarterback for the Dolphins and Josh Allen for the Bills; Mike McDaniel and Sean McDermott coached.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 10 | BUF 13 at MIA 30 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | MIA 21 at BUF 31 |
| 2024 · Wk 9 | MIA 27 at BUF 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 2 | BUF 31 at MIA 10 |
| 2023 · Wk 18 | BUF 21 at MIA 14 |
2025 records
| Dolphins | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7–10 | 12–5 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Home | 5–4 | 7–2 |
| Away | 2–6 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WLLWL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 20.4 – 24.9 | 28.3 – 21.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Dolphins' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIA off | Favors MIA · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#21 | -0.01#13 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#26 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#14 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#9 | 11%#27 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#18 | -0.09#9 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#19 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.03#9 | +0.04#29 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#3 | 4.9#30 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#26 | 43%#24 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#23 | 59%#19 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 110#26 | 122#7 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 50#19 | 27#1 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.0#25 | 4.6#1 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#9 | 28#9 | 32 | |
Dolphins: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.