2025
Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Jets offensevsBuccaneers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Jets, 17 for Buccaneers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Buccaneers won 29–27 and were favored the whole way, never below 57%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 2:00, 36 points for the Jets.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:00NYJC.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (W.McDonald), RECOVERED by NYJ-W.McDonald at 50. W.McDonald for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.2% → 38%
- 2Q4 0:03TBC.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD72% → 100%
- 3Q4 1:36TBB.Mayfield pass deep left to E.Egbuka pushed ob at NYJ 38 for 28 yards (A.Cisco).60% → 77%
- 4Q4 1:41TBB.Mayfield pass short right to S.Shepard to NYJ 18 for 20 yards (M.McCrary-Ball). ** Injury Update: NYJ-A.Gardner has returned to the game.72% → 84%
- 5Q1 5:30TBB.Mayfield pass incomplete deep right to M.Evans. PENALTY on NYJ-A.Gardner, Defensive Pass Interference, 26 yards, enforced at TB 49 - No Play.68% → 79%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Johnson led the Jets at +1.3 EPA (2 catches for 32). B.Mayfield led the Buccaneers at +14.0 EPA (19 of 29 for 233).
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Taylor100% | 26/36 | 197 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -7.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall55% | 9 | 39% | 21 | -3.4 | |
| T.Taylor100% | 8 | 35% | 48 | +2.2 | |
| B.Allen33% | 6 | 26% | 30 | -2.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Wilson100% | 13 | 37% | 10 | 84 | 1 | -1.3 |
| B.Hall55% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 31 | -0.2 | |
| M.Taylor74% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 18 | -1.7 | |
| A.Lazard | 3 | 9% | 2 | 13 | 1 | +0.9 |
| T.Johnson70% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 32 | +1.3 | |
| B.Allen33% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 17 | +1.1 | |
| A.Smith78% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 2 | -0.6 |
Defense H.Phillips 0.5 sacks, Q.Williams 0.5 sacks · Kicking N.Folk 2/2 FG (long 42)
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 19/29 | 233 | 1 | 1 | +8.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving74% | 25 | 74% | 66 | -10.2 | |
| R.White28% | 5 | 15% | 12 | -2.4 | |
| B.Mayfield100% | 4 | 12% | 44 | +5.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Evans72% | 9 | 31% | 4 | 33 | 1 | +0.3 |
| E.Egbuka64% | 8 | 28% | 6 | 85 | +4.3 | |
| S.Shepard61% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 80 | +6.2 | |
| B.Irving74% | 4 | 14% | 4 | 33 | +0.9 | |
| R.White28% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.4 | |
| R.Miller25% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| T.Johnson29% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.3 |
Defense J.Dean 1 INT, L.David 1 sack, A.Jr. 1 sack, Y.Diaby 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 5/6 FG (long 55)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Buccaneers give up 51 yards a game to running backs (32nd), against a league average of 32. Jets' running backs produce 35 (12th).
Deep middle is open
Buccaneers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.01 EPA per attempt. Jets send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Jets' run game is 28th in EPA per carry (-0.11). Buccaneers allow -0.11 (5th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Jets gain 4.5 yards per play (29th). Buccaneers give up 5.8 (24th), with the league at 5.4.
The Jets lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). The Buccaneers have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 3 | NYJ 27 at TB 29 |
| 2021 · Wk 17 | TB 28 at NYJ 24 |
| 2017 · Wk 10 | NYJ 10 at TB 15 |
| 2013 · Wk 1 | TB 17 at NYJ 18 |
| 2009 · Wk 14 | NYJ 26 at TB 3 |
2025 records
| Jets | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 8–9 |
| Division | 0–6 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 2–10 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Home | 2–7 | 4–4 |
| Away | 1–7 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | LLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 5 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 17.6 – 29.6 | 22.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jets' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors TB | TB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.13#29 | +0.02#17 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 40%#29 | 45%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#29 | 5.8#24 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#28 | 10%#19 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#28 | +0.07#20 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#30 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#28 | -0.11#5 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#15 | 4.1#15 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#27 | 40%#13 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 44%#31 | 65%#27 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 92#31 | 148#22 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#31 | 57#22 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.2#20 | 7.5#21 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 35#12 | 51#32 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Buccaneers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.