2025
Week 4 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Buccaneers offensevsEagles defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Buccaneers, 18 for Eagles. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Eagles won 31–25 and were favored the whole way, never below 63%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 7:57, 14 points for the Eagles.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 7:57TBB.Mayfield pass short right intended for C.Godwin INTERCEPTED by J.Campbell (R.Blankenship) at PHI 0. Touchback. Penalty on TB-G.Barton,…78% → 92%
- 2Q1 12:59TBR.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by C.Latu, RECOVERED by PHI-S.Brown at TB 35. S.Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.69% → 78%
- 3Q3 10:04TBB.Mayfield pass deep right to E.Egbuka for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.3% → 9%
- 4Q4 1:02TBB.Mayfield pass short middle to C.Otton to PHI 35 for 2 yards (P.Nickerson). FUMBLES (P.Nickerson), ball out of bounds at PHI 32. The Replay…94% → 100%
- 5Q4 10:58TBB.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to S.Shepard [Z.Smith]. PENALTY on PHI-K.Ringo, Defensive Pass Interference, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 42 -…15% → 20%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Smith led the Eagles at +4.5 EPA (2 catches for 29). R.White led the Buccaneers at +2.5 EPA (6 carries for 17).
Eagles
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Hurts100% | 15/24 | 130 | 2 | 2 | -1.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Barkley84% | 19 | 59% | 43 | 1 | -2.2 |
| J.Hurts100% | 9 | 28% | 62 | +1.5 | |
| A.Dillon14% | 3 | 9% | 17 | -0.4 | |
| B.Mann | 1 | 3% | -34 | -2.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Brown96% | 9 | 38% | 2 | 7 | -6.1 | |
| D.Goedert75% | 4 | 17% | 4 | 37 | 2 | +4.1 |
| S.Barkley84% | 4 | 17% | 4 | 31 | +0.4 | |
| D.Smith91% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 29 | +4.5 | |
| G.Calcaterra49% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 16 | +0.5 | |
| J.III9% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 10 | +0.5 | |
| W.Shipley5% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -1.7 |
Defense J.Campbell 1 INT, Z.Baun 1 sack, M.Ojomo 1 sack · Kicking J.Elliott 1/1 FG (long 39)
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 22/40 | 289 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -5.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving61% | 15 | 58% | 63 | -5.8 | |
| R.White42% | 6 | 23% | 17 | +1.2 | |
| B.Mayfield100% | 2 | 8% | 13 | +1.5 | |
| S.Shepard62% | 1 | 4% | 6 | +0.1 | |
| E.Egbuka89% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -1.6 | |
| T.Johnson32% | 1 | 4% | 5 | +0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Jr.81% | 10 | 26% | 3 | 26 | -4.5 | |
| E.Egbuka89% | 10 | 26% | 4 | 101 | 1 | +0.4 |
| R.White42% | 5 | 13% | 4 | 29 | +1.3 | |
| B.Irving61% | 5 | 13% | 5 | 102 | 1 | +7.5 |
| S.Shepard62% | 4 | 10% | 2 | 14 | -5.1 | |
| C.Otton96% | 4 | 10% | 3 | 9 | -2.7 | |
| T.Johnson32% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.7 |
Defense V.Vea 2 sacks · Kicking C.McLaughlin 3/3 FG (long 65)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Eagles give up 41 yards a game to running backs (28th), against a league average of 32. Buccaneers' running backs produce 31 (13th).
Deep middle is open
Eagles are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.93 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Eagles give up 29 yards a game to tight ends (2nd), against a league average of 53. Buccaneers' tight ends produce 35 (32nd).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Buccaneers create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (15th). Eagles give them up at 9% (18th).
The Buccaneers lead the series 10–9 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 4 | PHI 31 at TB 25 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | PHI 16 at TB 33 |
| 2023 · Wk 19 · playoffs | PHI 9 at TB 32 |
| 2023 · Wk 3 | PHI 25 at TB 11 |
| 2021 · Wk 19 · playoffs | PHI 15 at TB 31 |
2025 records
| Eagles | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11–6 | 8–9 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Home | 5–3 | 4–4 |
| Away | 6–3 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | LWWWL | LLLLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 22.3 – 19.1 | 22.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Eagles' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors PHI | PHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#19 | -0.07#9 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#24 | 42%#10 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#24 | 5.1#10 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#15 | 9%#18 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | -0.11#8 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 7%#14 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#24 | -0.10#6 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#27 | 4.1#12 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#12 | 43%#23 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#24 | 55%#9 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#9 | 138#17 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#32 | 29#2 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#32 | 6.2#6 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#13 | 41#28 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Eagles: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.