2025
Week 4 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · New Era Field
vs
Saints offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Saints, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 31–19 and were favored the whole way, never below 76%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 3:42, 8 points for the Saints.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 3:42NOJ.Allen sacked at BUF 7 for -9 yards (C.Granderson).15% → 24%
- 2Q4 12:56NOJ.Allen pass short middle to K.Shakir to 50 for -1 yards (C.Granderson).8% → 16%
- 3Q2 3:02BUFC.Johnston punts 43 yards to 50 R.Shaheed to BUF 40 for 10 yards (J.Solomon; C.Lewis).76% → 84%
- 4Q1 6:54NOK.Miller left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9% → 16%
- 5Q4 8:01BUFJ.Allen scrambles up the middle to NO 28 for 27 yards (D.Davis).86% → 92%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Miller led the Saints at +2.9 EPA (11 carries for 65). J.Allen led the Bills at +7.5 EPA (16 of 22 for 209).
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Rattler100% | 18/27 | 126 | 1 | 3 | -8.4 | |
| C.Olave85% | 0/1 | 0 | 1 | -3.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Kamara73% | 15 | 44% | 70 | -1.9 | |
| K.Miller31% | 11 | 32% | 65 | 1 | +2.9 |
| S.Rattler100% | 6 | 18% | 49 | +5.3 | |
| R.Shaheed70% | 2 | 6% | 5 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave85% | 6 | 24% | 3 | 20 | 1 | +0.8 |
| A.Kamara73% | 5 | 20% | 4 | 2 | -5.0 | |
| R.Shaheed70% | 5 | 20% | 4 | 47 | +0.4 | |
| B.Cooks90% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 22 | +1.3 | |
| J.Johnson90% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 28 | +1.0 | |
| J.Stoll36% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.5 | |
| S.Rattler100% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -3.6 |
Defense J.Sanker 1 INT, C.Jordan 1 sack, C.Granderson 1 sack, B.Bresee 1 sack · Kicking B.Grupe 2/2 FG (long 54)
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 16/22 | 209 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +4.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook73% | 22 | 69% | 117 | 1 | +3.2 |
| J.Allen100% | 7 | 22% | 45 | 1 | +2.6 |
| T.Johnson20% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -1.6 | |
| E.Moore31% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -0.5 | |
| R.Davis8% | 1 | 3% | 3 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir53% | 5 | 23% | 5 | 69 | 1 | +2.6 |
| J.Cook73% | 4 | 18% | 3 | 18 | -0.8 | |
| K.Coleman73% | 4 | 18% | 3 | 45 | +2.1 | |
| J.Palmer25% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 25 | +1.7 | |
| C.Samuel34% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 9 | +0.6 | |
| D.Kincaid37% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 28 | 1 | +2.5 |
| D.Knox41% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| J.Hawes53% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 15 | +0.8 |
Defense C.Bishop 1 INT, D.Jones 1 sack, J.Bosa 1 sack, A.Epenesa 1 sack · Kicking M.Prater 1/1 FG (long 35)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Saints
Saints convert 40% of third downs (19th). Bills allow 43% (24th).
Deep middle is open
Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Saints send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Saints gain -0.07 EPA per dropback (27th). Bills allow -0.09 (9th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Saints create explosive plays on 6% of snaps (32nd). Bills give them up at 11% (27th).
The Saints lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). The Bills have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 4 | NO 19 at BUF 31 |
| 2021 · Wk 12 | BUF 31 at NO 6 |
| 2017 · Wk 10 | NO 47 at BUF 10 |
| 2013 · Wk 8 | BUF 17 at NO 35 |
| 2009 · Wk 3 | NO 27 at BUF 7 |
2025 records
| Saints | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 12–5 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 3–5 | 7–2 |
| Away | 3–6 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 18.0 – 22.5 | 28.3 – 21.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Saints' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NO off | Favors NO · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#27 | -0.01#13 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#25 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.0#27 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 6%#32 | 11%#27 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.07#27 | -0.09#9 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#22 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.15#31 | +0.04#29 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.5#31 | 4.9#30 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#19 | 43%#24 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 43%#32 | 59%#19 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 146#15 | 122#7 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 60#9 | 27#1 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#15 | 4.6#1 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 25#24 | 28#9 | 32 | |
Saints: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.