2025
Week 4 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · New Era Field
vs
Bills offensevsSaints defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bills, 17 for Saints. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bills won 31–19 and were favored the whole way, never below 76%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 3:42, 8 points for the Saints.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 3:42NOJ.Allen sacked at BUF 7 for -9 yards (C.Granderson).15% → 24%
- 2Q4 12:56NOJ.Allen pass short middle to K.Shakir to 50 for -1 yards (C.Granderson).8% → 16%
- 3Q2 3:02BUFC.Johnston punts 43 yards to 50 R.Shaheed to BUF 40 for 10 yards (J.Solomon; C.Lewis).76% → 84%
- 4Q1 6:54NOK.Miller left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9% → 16%
- 5Q4 8:01BUFJ.Allen scrambles up the middle to NO 28 for 27 yards (D.Davis).86% → 92%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Miller led the Saints at +2.9 EPA (11 carries for 65). J.Allen led the Bills at +7.5 EPA (16 of 22 for 209).
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Rattler100% | 18/27 | 126 | 1 | 3 | -8.4 | |
| C.Olave85% | 0/1 | 0 | 1 | -3.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Kamara73% | 15 | 44% | 70 | -1.9 | |
| K.Miller31% | 11 | 32% | 65 | 1 | +2.9 |
| S.Rattler100% | 6 | 18% | 49 | +5.3 | |
| R.Shaheed70% | 2 | 6% | 5 | -0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave85% | 6 | 24% | 3 | 20 | 1 | +0.8 |
| A.Kamara73% | 5 | 20% | 4 | 2 | -5.0 | |
| R.Shaheed70% | 5 | 20% | 4 | 47 | +0.4 | |
| B.Cooks90% | 4 | 16% | 3 | 22 | +1.3 | |
| J.Johnson90% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 28 | +1.0 | |
| J.Stoll36% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.5 | |
| S.Rattler100% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -3.6 |
Defense J.Sanker 1 INT, C.Jordan 1 sack, C.Granderson 1 sack, B.Bresee 1 sack · Kicking B.Grupe 2/2 FG (long 54)
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen100% | 16/22 | 209 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +4.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook73% | 22 | 69% | 117 | 1 | +3.2 |
| J.Allen100% | 7 | 22% | 45 | 1 | +2.6 |
| T.Johnson20% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -1.6 | |
| E.Moore31% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -0.5 | |
| R.Davis8% | 1 | 3% | 3 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir53% | 5 | 23% | 5 | 69 | 1 | +2.6 |
| J.Cook73% | 4 | 18% | 3 | 18 | -0.8 | |
| K.Coleman73% | 4 | 18% | 3 | 45 | +2.1 | |
| J.Palmer25% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 25 | +1.7 | |
| C.Samuel34% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 9 | +0.6 | |
| D.Kincaid37% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 28 | 1 | +2.5 |
| D.Knox41% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| J.Hawes53% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 15 | +0.8 |
Defense C.Bishop 1 INT, D.Jones 1 sack, J.Bosa 1 sack, A.Epenesa 1 sack · Kicking M.Prater 1/1 FG (long 35)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Saints give up 51 yards a game to tight ends (13th), against a league average of 53. Bills' tight ends produce 73 (2nd).
Deep middle is open
Saints are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.24 EPA per attempt. Bills send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Saints give up 122 yards a game to wide receivers (6th), against a league average of 140. Bills' wide receivers produce 130 (20th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Bills gain 6.0 yards per play (5th). Saints give up 5.0 (7th), with the league at 5.4.
The Saints lead the series 5–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). The Bills have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 4 | NO 19 at BUF 31 |
| 2021 · Wk 12 | BUF 31 at NO 6 |
| 2017 · Wk 10 | NO 47 at BUF 10 |
| 2013 · Wk 8 | BUF 17 at NO 35 |
| 2009 · Wk 3 | NO 27 at BUF 7 |
2025 records
| Saints | Bills | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–11 | 12–5 |
| Division | 3–3 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 3–2 |
| Home | 3–5 | 7–2 |
| Away | 3–6 | 5–3 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 18.0 – 22.5 | 28.3 – 21.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Saints' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors NO | NO def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.14#2 | -0.06#10 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 49%#2 | 42%#7 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#5 | 5.0#7 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#1 | 9%#16 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#3 | -0.05#12 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#18 | 8%#7 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.07#1 | -0.12#4 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#4 | 3.9#9 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 48%#3 | 36%#4 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#4 | 55%#11 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 130#20 | 122#6 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 73#2 | 51#13 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#16 | 7.4#17 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#11 | 24#3 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Saints: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.