2025
Week 4 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · State Farm Stadium
vs
Cardinals offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Cardinals, 20 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 23–20; their low point was 48% at Q1 7:47. The game turned for good at Q1 6:21: PENALTY on ARI-J.Williams, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 10 - No Play (49% → 52%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:23, 22 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:23SEAS.Darnold pass deep left to J.Smith-Njigba to ARI 38 for 22 yards (M.Melton). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was inbounds ruling, and the…65% → 87%
- 2Q4 0:04SEAJ.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD83% → 100%
- 3Q4 0:33ARIK.Murray pass short left to E.Demercado for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.25% → 36%
- 4Q4 1:16ARIK.Murray pass deep left to M.Harrison to SEA 7 for 18 yards (D.Witherspoon).14% → 24%
- 5Q4 3:01ARIK.Murray pass short left to Mi.Wilson to SEA 46 for 5 yards (J.Jobe).8% → 16%
- ★Q1 6:21SEAPENALTY on ARI-J.Williams, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at SEA 10 - No Play.turning point49% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
S.Darnold led the Seahawks at +11.4 EPA (18 of 26 for 242). E.Demercado led the Cardinals at +2.5 EPA (2 carries for 8).
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 18/26 | 242 | 1 | 3 | +9.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III50% | 19 | 54% | 81 | -5.5 | |
| Z.Charbonnet47% | 12 | 34% | 39 | 1 | -2.2 |
| J.Smith-Njigba80% | 3 | 9% | 11 | -0.2 | |
| S.Darnold100% | 1 | 3% | 24 | +1.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Kupp74% | 5 | 21% | 4 | 26 | -0.1 | |
| J.Smith-Njigba80% | 5 | 21% | 4 | 79 | +7.3 | |
| E.Arroyo55% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 44 | +1.8 | |
| A.Barner86% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 32 | 1 | +3.2 |
| K.III50% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 29 | +2.0 | |
| Z.Charbonnet47% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 5 | -1.3 | |
| T.Horton36% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 10 | -0.4 | |
| J.Bobo15% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 17 | +1.6 |
Defense U.Nwosu 2 sacks, E.Jones 0.5 sacks and 1 INT, L.Williams 1.5 sacks, C.Bryant 1 INT · Kicking J.Myers 3/4 FG (long 52)
Cardinals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Murray100% | 27/41 | 200 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -3.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Benson55% | 8 | 47% | 35 | -0.4 | |
| K.Murray100% | 5 | 29% | 41 | +0.1 | |
| E.Demercado39% | 2 | 12% | 8 | -0.2 | |
| G.Dortch64% | 1 | 6% | 4 | -0.3 | |
| M.Carter6% | 1 | 6% | 1 | -1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McBride96% | 11 | 28% | 7 | 52 | +1.5 | |
| M.Jr.100% | 10 | 25% | 6 | 66 | 1 | +1.2 |
| M.Wilson97% | 6 | 15% | 3 | 15 | +0.5 | |
| G.Dortch64% | 5 | 13% | 4 | 35 | +0.4 | |
| T.Benson55% | 5 | 13% | 5 | 19 | +0.1 | |
| E.Demercado39% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 13 | 1 | +2.7 |
| X.Weaver21% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense C.Campbell 1 sack, J.Sweat 1 sack, D.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking C.Ryland 2/2 FG (long 57)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Seahawks give up 63 yards a game to tight ends (27th), against a league average of 53. Cardinals' tight ends produce 93 (1st).
Deep middle is open
Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.37 EPA per attempt. Cardinals send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Nowhere to run
Cardinals' run game is 29th in EPA per carry (-0.11). Seahawks allow -0.19 (1st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Cardinals succeed on 43% of plays (21st) against a defense that allows 40% (3rd).
The Seahawks lead the series 31–17–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 10. Sep 20, 2026, at State Farm Stadium: the Seahawks won 31–7. Jacoby Brissett started at quarterback for the Cardinals and Drew Lock for the Seahawks; Jonathan Gannon and Mike Macdonald coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | SEA 31 at ARI 7 |
| 2025 · Wk 10 | ARI 22 at SEA 44 |
| 2025 · Wk 4 | SEA 23 at ARI 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | SEA 30 at ARI 18 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 | ARI 6 at SEA 16 |
2025 records
| Seahawks | Cardinals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14–3 | 3–14 |
| Division | 4–2 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 5–0 | 0–5 |
| Home | 6–2 | 1–7 |
| Away | 8–1 | 2–7 |
| Last 5 | WWWWW | LLLLL |
| Streak | Won 7 | Lost 9 |
| Points a game | 28.4 – 17.2 | 20.9 – 28.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Seahawks' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ARI off | Favors ARI · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#22 | -0.12#2 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#21 | 40%#3 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#23 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#29 | 8%#2 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.00#15 | -0.12#5 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#23 | 7%#11 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#29 | -0.19#1 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#24 | 3.5#1 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#9 | 34%#1 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 57%#22 | 54%#6 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 125#23 | 118#5 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 93#1 | 63#27 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 12.8#1 | 8.3#27 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 38#6 | 41#27 | 32 | |
Cardinals: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.