2025
Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium
vs
Steelers offensevsBrowns defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 18 games for Steelers, 17 for Browns. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Steelers won 23–9 and were favored the whole way, never below 67%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 14:55, 7 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 14:55PITS.A.Rodgers pass short right to D.Washington to CLE 36 for 36 yards (T.Campbell). FUMBLES (T.Campbell), ball out of bounds at CLE 27.70% → 77%
- 2Q1 6:50PITA.Rodgers pass deep right to D.Metcalf pushed ob at PIT 39 for 25 yards (T.Campbell).71% → 77%
- 3Q3 4:13CLEA.Szmyt 53 yard field goal is GOOD4% → 9%
- 4Q1 2:28PITD.Gabriel sacked at CLE 41 for -7 yards (J.Ramsey).67% → 71%
- 5Q3 11:59PITC.Waitman punts 46 yards to CLE 27 G.Larvadain to CLE 35 for 8 yards (J.Pierre; B.Skowronek). PENALTY on CLE-C.Thomas, Running Into the Kicker, 5…81% → 85%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
H.Jr. led the Browns at +1.6 EPA (7 catches for 81). A.Rodgers led the Steelers at +9.2 EPA (21 of 30 for 235).
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Gabriel100% | 29/52 | 221 | 6 | -13.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Judkins40% | 12 | 71% | 36 | -0.8 | |
| D.Sampson18% | 3 | 18% | 12 | -0.4 | |
| J.Ford40% | 2 | 12% | 17 | +1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jeudy89% | 13 | 25% | 5 | 43 | -2.3 | |
| H.Jr.80% | 10 | 20% | 7 | 81 | +1.6 | |
| D.Njoku44% | 6 | 12% | 3 | 28 | -0.5 | |
| J.Ford40% | 6 | 12% | 5 | 13 | -1.8 | |
| I.Bond87% | 5 | 10% | 2 | 9 | -0.1 | |
| G.Larvadain16% | 4 | 8% | 2 | 22 | +0.3 | |
| J.Thrash45% | 3 | 6% | 2 | 13 | -0.4 | |
| D.Sampson18% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 12 | +0.3 | |
| B.Whiteheart27% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| Q.Judkins40% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking A.Szmyt 3/3 FG (long 53)
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers95% | 21/30 | 235 | 2 | +9.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren53% | 11 | 39% | 52 | -0.5 | |
| K.Gainwell34% | 6 | 21% | 22 | -0.3 | |
| K.Johnson19% | 6 | 21% | 15 | -1.8 | |
| M.Rudolph5% | 3 | 11% | 0 | 0.0 | |
| A.Rodgers95% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.4 | |
| J.Smith69% | 1 | 4% | 10 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Metcalf83% | 9 | 31% | 4 | 95 | 1 | +4.5 |
| K.Gainwell34% | 6 | 21% | 6 | 14 | -4.3 | |
| D.Washington80% | 5 | 17% | 3 | 62 | +4.5 | |
| J.Smith69% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 18 | +0.4 | |
| J.Warren53% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 11 | +0.9 | |
| P.Freiermuth36% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +0.7 | |
| C.Heyward10% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 12 | 1 | +2.2 |
| R.Wilson25% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 12 | +1.2 |
Defense J.Ramsey 2 sacks, N.Herbig 2 sacks, D.Harmon 1 sack, T.Watt 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Boswell 3/4 FG (long 50)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Browns give up 7.1 targets a game to tight ends (14th), against a league average of 7.3. Steelers' tight ends produce 8.9 (4th).
Deep middle is open
Browns are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Steelers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Browns give up 110 yards a game to wide receivers (1st), against a league average of 140. Steelers' wide receivers produce 101 (29th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Steelers create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (23rd). Browns give them up at 9% (13th).
The Steelers lead the series 43–14–1 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Acrisure Stadium: the Steelers won 27–6. Aaron Rodgers started at quarterback for the Steelers and Deshaun Watson for the Browns; Mike McCarthy and Todd Monken coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | CLE 6 at PIT 27 |
| 2026 · Wk 4 | PIT 24 at CLE 27 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | PIT 6 at CLE 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 6 | CLE 9 at PIT 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | CLE 14 at PIT 27 |
2025 records
| Browns | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 10–7 |
| Division | 2–4 | 4–2 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 8–4 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Home | 3–6 | 6–3 |
| Away | 2–6 | 4–4 |
| Last 5 | LLLWW | WWWLW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 16.4 – 22.3 | 23.4 – 22.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Browns' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PIT off | Favors PIT · Favors CLE | CLE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | 0.00#18 | -0.09#4 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 43%#19 | 40%#4 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#21 | 4.9#5 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#23 | 9%#13 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#21 | -0.13#3 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#12 | 10%#3 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#7 | -0.07#15 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.4#12 | 4.2#17 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#17 | 37%#8 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#15 | 63%#22 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 101#29 | 110#1 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 62#7 | 52#16 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#4 | 7.1#14 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 48#3 | 27#8 | 32 | |
Steelers: EPA per throw
Browns: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.