DOWN X DOWN › week 13 › Bills at Patriots
Updated Nov 3, 9:16 AM ET
2026
2026this season2025final

Week 13 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Gillette Stadium

BUFvsNE

Bills offensevsPatriots defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Bills, 8 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

BUF offenseNE offense
Keys to the game · where this matchup tilts, from the season numbers4 reads
01
Biggest edge

Throw it

Bills gain +0.23 EPA per dropback (4th). Patriots allow +0.08 (22nd).

02
Opportunity

Deep left is open

Patriots are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.96 EPA per attempt. Bills send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

03
Watch out

Pressure problem

Bills take a sack on 6% of dropbacks (13th). Patriots get home on 8% (5th). League average is 7%.

04
Wash

Yards per play

Call this one even. Bills gain 6.5 yards per play (2nd). Patriots give up 5.3 (12th), with the league at 5.4.

Players to watch

BUF Bills

17Josh AllenQB · 135/205 · 1793 yds · 11 TD · 5 INTEPA per dropback +0.27 · 5th4James CookRB · 138 car · 707 yds · 7 TD · 12 recEPA per touch +0.08 · 11th10Khalil ShakirWR · 27 rec · 354 yds · 1 TD · 38 tgtEPA per target +0.4086Dalton KincaidTE · 27 rec · 401 yds · 2 TD · 35 tgtEPA per target +0.50 · 8th15Greg RousseauWeakside Linebacker · 24 tackles · 7 sacks · 7 PD7 sacks · T-3rd in the NFL21Davison IgbinosunRight Cornerback · 28 tackles · 1 INT · 8 PD1 INT

NE Patriots

10Drake MayeQB · 157/234 · 1983 yds · 15 TD · 8 INTEPA per dropback +0.21 · 9th38Rhamondre StevensonRB · 96 car · 367 yds · 3 TD · 23 recEPA per touch 0.00 · 18th3DeMario DouglasWR · 26 rec · 332 yds · 4 TD · 37 tgtEPA per target +0.57 · 13th85Hunter HenryTE · 29 rec · 326 yds · 2 TD · 34 tgtEPA per target +0.55 · 5th91Elijah PonderWeakside Linebacker · 23 tackles · 6 sacks · 1 PD6 sacks · T-7th in the NFL25Marcus JonesNickel Back · 39 tackles · 1 sack · 1 INT · 6 PD1 INT
The series · Bills and Patriots since 1999, and this season's records56 meetings

The Patriots lead the series 40–16 since 1999. Oct 4, 2026, at Highmark Stadium: the Patriots won 29–26. Josh Allen started at quarterback for the Bills and Drake Maye for the Patriots; Sean McDermott and Mike Vrabel coached.

Bills at home8–21the Bills' record
In New England8–19the Bills' record
Most pointsBills 47 · Patriots 562021 · 2007
Biggest winBills by 31 · Patriots by 462003 · 2007
Playoffs1–0the Bills' record

The last 5

2026 · Wk 4NE 29 at BUF 26
2025 · Wk 15BUF 35 at NE 31
2025 · Wk 5NE 23 at BUF 20
2024 · Wk 18BUF 16 at NE 23
2024 · Wk 16NE 21 at BUF 24

2026 records

BillsPatriots
Overall6–15–3
Division0–13–0
Conference4–15–1
Other conference2–00–2
Home3–13–0
Away3–02–3
Last 5WLWWWWWWLW
StreakWon 3Won 1
Points a game33.3 – 25.923.0 – 20.3

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.

The lineups · Bills offense against the Patriots defenseDepth charts
Patriots defense · 3-4 DBills offense · 3WR 1TE73Dawkins70Anderson66McGovern64Torrence79Brown86Kincaid17Allen4Cook2Moore0Coleman10Shakir97Williams94Durden90Barmore91Ponder5Jones14Spillane53Elliss0Gonzalez7Davis25Jones4Woodson31Byard

Bills offense · 3WR 1TE

  • QBJosh Allen#17 · 135/205 · 1793 yds · 11 TD · 5 INT
  • RBJames Cook III#4 · 138 car · 707 yds · 7 TD · 12 rec
  • WRDJ Moore#2 · 16 rec · 260 yds · 2 TD · 27 tgt
  • WRKhalil Shakir#10 · 27 rec · 354 yds · 1 TD · 38 tgt
  • WRKeon Coleman#0 · 20 rec · 287 yds · 3 TD · 27 tgt
  • TEDalton Kincaid#86 · 27 rec · 401 yds · 2 TD · 35 tgt
  • LTDion Dawkins#73
  • LGAlec Anderson#70
  • CConnor McGovern#66
  • RGO'Cyrus Torrence#64
  • RTSpencer Brown#79

Patriots defense · Base 3-4 D

  • RDEMilton Williams#97 · 20 tackles · 1 sack
  • NTCory Durden#94 · 19 tackles · 1.5 sacks
  • LDEChristian Barmore#90 · 7 tackles · 3.5 sacks
  • WLBElijah Ponder#91 · 23 tackles · 6 sacks · 1 PD
  • SLBDre'Mont Jones#5 · 14 tackles · 1 sack
  • RILBRobert Spillane#14 · 47 tackles · 2 PD
  • LILBChristian Elliss#53 · 58 tackles · 1.5 sacks · 1 PD
  • RCBChristian Gonzalez#0 · 21 tackles · 5 PD
  • LCBCarlton Davis III#7 · 25 tackles · 1 PD
  • NBMarcus Jones#25 · 39 tackles · 1 sack · 1 INT · 6 PD
  • SSCraig Woodson#4 · 36 tackles · 1 INT · 3 PD
  • FSKevin Byard#31 · 40 tackles · 1 INT · 3 PD

Starters from each team's current depth chart (nflverse, from ESPN), drawn in the offense's base three-receiver set against the defense's base front. The nickel back, the extra defensive back most teams use against three receivers, is drawn lighter. Left and right are as the offense sees the field. The toggle at the top flips which offense is drawn.

Head to head · BUF offense against NE defense
StatBUF BUF offFavors BUF · Favors NENE NE def allowsNFL avg
Overall
EPA per play
+0.18#1
+0.01#18+0.00
Success rate
49%#4
44%#1644%
Yards per play
6.5#2
5.3#125.4
Explosive play rate
15%#1
9%#169%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback
+0.23#4
+0.08#22+0.03
Sack rate
6%#13
8%#57%
Running
Run EPA per carry
+0.02#6
-0.09#14-0.08
Yards per carry
4.5#7
3.8#114.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion
47%#6
38%#1041%
Red zone TD rate
72%#3
57%#1261%
Targets by position
WR yards per game
145#17
152#23147
TE yards per game
64#9
52#1555
TE targets per game
7.1#19
7.9#207.6
RB receiving yards per game
46#7
31#1532
Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Bills: EPA per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
-0.138% of throws
+1.408% of throws
+1.215% of throws
Short
+0.4627% of throws
-0.1216% of throws
+0.2236% of throws

Patriots: EPA allowed per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.9619 throws
+0.788 throws
+0.8111 throws
Short
+0.0483 throws
+0.4342 throws
+0.0693 throws

Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.