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DOWN X DOWN › week 15 › Bears at Bills
Updated Nov 2, 5:48 PM ET
2026
2026this season2025final

Week 15 · Saturday 8:20 PM ET · Highmark Stadium

BUFvsCHI

Bills offensevsBears defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Bills, 7 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

CHI offenseBUF offense
Keys to the game · where this matchup tilts, from the season numbers4 reads
01
Biggest edge

Red zone touchdowns

Bills score a touchdown on 72% of red zone trips (3rd). Bears allow 69% (25th).

02
Opportunity

Deep left is open

Bears are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Bills send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

03
Watch out

Tight ends go quiet

Bears give up 6.6 targets a game to tight ends (7th), against a league average of 7.6. Bills' tight ends produce 7.1 (19th).

04
Wash

Success rate

Call this one even. Bills succeed on 49% of plays (4th) against a defense that allows 41% (7th).

Players to watch

CHI Bears

18Caleb WilliamsQB · 88/124 · 1020 yds · 5 TD · 1 INTEPA per dropback +0.31 · 2nd4D'Andre SwiftRB · 116 car · 476 yds · 7 TD · 22 recEPA per touch -0.02 · 24th10Luther Burden IIIWR · 35 rec · 491 yds · 2 TD · 47 tgtEPA per target +0.3184Colston LovelandTE · 26 rec · 244 yds · 2 TD · 42 tgtEPA per target -0.0499Jeffery SimmonsRight Defensive Tackle · 38 tackles · 4 sacks · 3 PD4 sacks · T-22nd in the NFL31Dillon ThienemanStrong Safety · 46 tackles · 1.5 sacks · 1 INT · 5 PD1 INT

BUF Bills

17Josh AllenQB · 135/205 · 1793 yds · 11 TD · 5 INTEPA per dropback +0.27 · 5th4James CookRB · 138 car · 707 yds · 7 TD · 12 recEPA per touch +0.08 · 11th10Khalil ShakirWR · 27 rec · 354 yds · 1 TD · 38 tgtEPA per target +0.4086Dalton KincaidTE · 27 rec · 401 yds · 2 TD · 35 tgtEPA per target +0.50 · 8th15Greg RousseauWeakside Linebacker · 24 tackles · 7 sacks · 7 PD7 sacks · T-3rd in the NFL21Davison IgbinosunRight Cornerback · 28 tackles · 1 INT · 8 PD1 INT
The series · Bears and Bills since 1999, and this season's records7 meetings

The Bills lead the series 4–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). Dec 24, 2022, at Soldier Field: the Bills won 35–13. Justin Fields started at quarterback for the Bears and Josh Allen for the Bills; Matt Eberflus and Sean McDermott coached.

Bears at home1–2the Bears' record
In Buffalo2–2the Bears' record
Most pointsBears 41 · Bills 352018 · 2022
Biggest winBears by 33 · Bills by 222006 · 2022

The last 5

2022 · Wk 16BUF 35 at CHI 13
2018 · Wk 9CHI 41 at BUF 9
2014 · Wk 1 · OTBUF 23 at CHI 20
2010 · Wk 9CHI 22 at BUF 19
2006 · Wk 5BUF 7 at CHI 40

2026 records

BearsBills
Overall5–26–1
Division0–20–1
Conference3–24–1
Other conference2–02–0
Home3–13–1
Away2–13–0
Last 5WWLWWWLWWW
StreakWon 2Won 3
Points a game25.7 – 20.433.3 – 25.9

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.

The lineups · Bills offense against the Bears defenseDepth charts
Bears defense · 4-3 DBills offense · 3WR 1TE73Dawkins70Anderson66McGovern64Torrence79Brown86Kincaid17Allen4Cook2Moore0Coleman10Shakir97Lynch99Simmons50Jarrett98Sweat12Bush53Edwards48Jackson29Stevenson1Johnson6Gordon31Thieneman21Lewis

Bills offense · 3WR 1TE

  • QBJosh Allen#17 · 135/205 · 1793 yds · 11 TD · 5 INT
  • RBJames Cook III#4 · 138 car · 707 yds · 7 TD · 12 rec
  • WRDJ Moore#2 · 16 rec · 260 yds · 2 TD · 27 tgt
  • WRKhalil Shakir#10 · 27 rec · 354 yds · 1 TD · 38 tgt
  • WRKeon Coleman#0 · 20 rec · 287 yds · 3 TD · 27 tgt
  • TEDalton Kincaid#86 · 27 rec · 401 yds · 2 TD · 35 tgt
  • LTDion Dawkins#73
  • LGAlec Anderson#70
  • CConnor McGovern#66
  • RGO'Cyrus Torrence#64
  • RTSpencer Brown#79

Bears defense · Base 4-3 D

  • RDEJames Lynch#97 · 16 tackles · 1 PD
  • RDTJeffery Simmons#99 · 38 tackles · 4 sacks · 3 PD
  • LDTGrady Jarrett#50 · 12 tackles
  • LDEMontez Sweat#98 · 7 tackles · 2 sacks
  • WLBDevin Bush#12 · 38 tackles · 1 sack · 1 PD
  • MLBT.J. Edwards#53 · 15 tackles · 1 INT · 3 PD
  • SLBD'Marco Jackson#48 · 21 tackles · 1 INT · 1 PD
  • RCBTyrique Stevenson#29 · 23 tackles · 3 PD
  • LCBJaylon Johnson#1 · 19 tackles · 2 PD
  • NBKyler Gordon#6 · 7 tackles · 4 sacks
  • SSDillon Thieneman#31 · 46 tackles · 1.5 sacks · 1 INT · 5 PD
  • FSCam Lewis#21 · 27 tackles

Starters from each team's current depth chart (nflverse, from ESPN), drawn in the offense's base three-receiver set against the defense's base front. The nickel back, the extra defensive back most teams use against three receivers, is drawn lighter. Left and right are as the offense sees the field. The toggle at the top flips which offense is drawn.

Head to head · BUF offense against CHI defense
StatBUF BUF offFavors BUF · Favors CHICHI CHI def allowsNFL avg
Overall
EPA per play
+0.18#1
-0.01#15+0.00
Success rate
49%#4
41%#744%
Yards per play
6.5#2
6.3#325.4
Explosive play rate
15%#1
11%#269%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback
+0.23#4
+0.01#15+0.03
Sack rate
6%#13
9%#27%
Running
Run EPA per carry
+0.02#6
-0.08#15-0.08
Yards per carry
4.5#7
4.2#194.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion
47%#6
26%#141%
Red zone TD rate
72%#3
69%#2561%
Targets by position
WR yards per game
145#17
149#19147
TE yards per game
64#9
57#2155
TE targets per game
7.1#19
6.6#77.6
RB receiving yards per game
46#7
35#2132
Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Bills: EPA per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
-0.138% of throws
+1.408% of throws
+1.215% of throws
Short
+0.4627% of throws
-0.1216% of throws
+0.2236% of throws

Bears: EPA allowed per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.5016 throws
+1.408 throws
+0.4815 throws
Short
-0.0958 throws
+0.2333 throws
+0.0863 throws

Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.