2026
Week 3 · Sunday 4:05 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Buccaneers offensevsVikings defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Buccaneers, 7 for Vikings. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 23–16 and were favored the whole way, never below 51%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 4:17, 15 points for the Vikings.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 4:17MINK.Murray pass deep left to J.Addison for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [V.Vea].61% → 77%
- 2Q4 3:15MINW.Reichard 56 yard field goal is GOOD63% → 78%
- 3Q4 10:49TBB.Mayfield pass short right to E.Egbuka to TB 46 for 10 yards (J.Metellus; B.Murphy). PENALTY on MIN-J.Metellus, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards,…26% → 40%
- 4Q1 9:00MINR.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14 M.Price for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.65% → 78%
- 5Q3 8:41TBK.Murray pass short middle intended for J.Addison INTERCEPTED by A.Robinson (V.Vea) at MIN 22. A.Robinson to MIN 22 for no gain (B.Brandel).22% → 34%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Jefferson led the Vikings at +1.7 EPA (2 catches for 32). C.Otton led the Buccaneers at +3.5 EPA (3 catches for 56).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Murray100% | 15/29 | 168 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jones80% | 17 | 74% | 58 | -1.4 | |
| D.Claiborne5% | 3 | 13% | 1 | -2.1 | |
| K.Murray100% | 2 | 9% | 17 | +1.8 | |
| D.Dallas15% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Addison98% | 9 | 36% | 5 | 90 | 1 | +0.5 |
| A.Jones80% | 6 | 24% | 5 | 34 | -1.2 | |
| T.Hockenson85% | 4 | 16% | 2 | 11 | -1.2 | |
| J.Jennings80% | 2 | 8% | 1 | 1 | -2.5 | |
| J.Jefferson12% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 32 | +1.7 | |
| T.Felton54% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 |
Defense A.Ginkel 0.5 sacks and 1 INT, K.Noy 1.5 sacks, E.Wilson 1.5 sacks, I.Rodgers 1 INT · Kicking W.Reichard 3/3 FG (long 56)
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield94% | 17/34 | 217 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10.9 |
| J.Daniels6% | 0/3 | 0 | 1 | -0.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving52% | 15 | 71% | 46 | -2.7 | |
| K.Gainwell46% | 3 | 14% | -4 | -2.4 | |
| B.Mayfield94% | 2 | 10% | 6 | +0.6 | |
| J.Daniels6% | 1 | 5% | 9 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Egbuka74% | 9 | 26% | 5 | 62 | -0.5 | |
| C.Otton94% | 6 | 17% | 3 | 56 | +3.5 | |
| K.Gainwell46% | 5 | 14% | 2 | 14 | -3.0 | |
| C.Jr.62% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 25 | -1.5 | |
| B.Irving52% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 12 | -0.4 | |
| T.III75% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 40 | 1 | +2.5 |
| T.Johnson23% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 8 | -0.1 | |
| P.Durham55% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| J.McMillan3% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 |
Defense A.Robinson 1 INT, A.Anzalone 1 sack, A.Nelson 1 sack, D.Walker 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 3/3 FG (long 54)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Buccaneers average 5.0 yards per carry (3rd). Vikings allow 4.5 (25th).
Deep middle is open
Vikings are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Buccaneers gain -0.23 EPA per dropback (31st). Vikings allow -0.24 (1st).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Buccaneers create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (11th). Vikings give them up at 9% (14th).
The Buccaneers lead the series 10–6 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | MIN 23 at TB 16 |
| 2023 · Wk 1 | TB 20 at MIN 17 |
| 2020 · Wk 14 | MIN 14 at TB 26 |
| 2017 · Wk 3 | TB 17 at MIN 34 |
| 2014 · Wk 8 · OT | MIN 19 at TB 13 |
2026 records
| Vikings | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–1 | 3–5 |
| Division | 2–1 | 2–0 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 0–3 |
| Home | 3–0 | 1–4 |
| Away | 3–1 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | LWLWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 2 |
| Points a game | 20.0 – 13.3 | 22.3 – 18.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors MIN | MIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.09#26 | -0.17#1 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 41%#25 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#25 | 4.7#2 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#11 | 9%#14 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.23#31 | -0.24#1 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#30 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.01#8 | -0.11#9 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.0#3 | 4.5#25 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#14 | 31%#2 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 52%#26 | 27%#1 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 104#31 | 123#6 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 27#32 | 39#4 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 4.1#32 | 6.3#6 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 17#29 | 18#3 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Vikings: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.