2026
Week 4 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Lumen Field
vs
Chargers offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Chargers, 8 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Seahawks won 30–23 and were favored the whole way, never below 65%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 10:13, 16 points for the Seahawks.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 10:13SEAM.Dickson punts 45 yards to LAC 23 D.Davis MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 25, RECOVERED by SEA-C.O'Toole at LAC 23.65% → 81%
- 2Q1 10:23SEAS.Darnold pass incomplete short left [T.Tuipulotu]. PENALTY on SEA-S.Darnold, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 42.29% → 36%
- 3Q2 8:55SEAS.Darnold pass deep right to J.Smith-Njigba to LAC 43 for 28 yards (G.Smith) [T.Tart].82% → 88%
- 4Q4 1:03LACJ.Herbert sacked at LAC 20 for -9 yards (U.Nwosu). FUMBLES (U.Nwosu) [U.Nwosu], RECOVERED by SEA-D.Hall at LAC 20. PENALTY on LAC-C.Strange,…95% → 100%
- 5Q1 14:03LACJ.Herbert pass short left to K.Mitchell to SEA 41 for 8 yards (N.Emmanwori).24% → 29%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
O.Hampton led the Chargers at +6.4 EPA (9 carries for 45). J.Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks at +3.5 EPA (5 catches for 76).
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 19/31 | 189 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8.0 |
| T.Harris93% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Mitchell37% | 10 | 31% | 39 | -0.5 | |
| O.Hampton35% | 9 | 28% | 45 | 1 | +3.4 |
| J.Herbert100% | 6 | 19% | 40 | +0.2 | |
| K.Vidal35% | 5 | 16% | 25 | +1.0 | |
| Q.Johnston75% | 1 | 3% | -4 | -1.2 | |
| O.II55% | 1 | 3% | 2 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.II55% | 8 | 26% | 5 | 36 | -4.9 | |
| K.Mitchell37% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 24 | +3.7 | |
| T.Harris93% | 5 | 16% | 3 | 60 | +2.4 | |
| K.Vidal35% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 11 | 1 | +1.3 |
| Q.Johnston75% | 2 | 6% | 1 | 44 | +3.1 | |
| L.McConkey34% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -6.2 | |
| O.Hampton35% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 8 | +3.0 | |
| M.Valdes-Scantling37% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.2 | |
| J.Herbert100% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| D.Davis4% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.1 |
Defense T.Tuipulotu 0.5 sacks and 1 INT, K.Mack 1 sack, T.Dye 1 sack, J.Eboigbe 0.5 sacks · Kicking C.Dicker 3/3 FG, 2/2 XP, 11 pts
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 13/22 | 168 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -5.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Wilson60% | 21 | 64% | 81 | 1 | +0.2 |
| G.Holani37% | 7 | 21% | 18 | -4.0 | |
| S.Darnold100% | 3 | 9% | 6 | -2.9 | |
| R.Shaheed60% | 2 | 6% | 33 | 1 | +3.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba88% | 6 | 30% | 5 | 76 | +3.5 | |
| E.Wilson60% | 4 | 20% | 3 | 39 | 1 | -2.9 |
| R.Shaheed60% | 3 | 15% | 1 | 20 | -1.0 | |
| A.Barner90% | 3 | 15% | 1 | 12 | -1.0 | |
| C.Kupp57% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 13 | +0.3 | |
| G.Holani37% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 2 | -0.6 | |
| T.Horton17% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 6 | 1 | +1.6 |
Defense E.Jones 1 sack and 1 INT, D.Thomas 1 INT, U.Nwosu 1 sack, B.II 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 1/1 FG, 3/4 XP, 6 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Chargers score a touchdown on 50% of red zone trips (29th). Seahawks allow 88% (32nd).
Deep middle is open
Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.88 EPA per attempt. Chargers send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Chargers gain -0.30 EPA per dropback (32nd). Seahawks allow -0.10 (4th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Chargers create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (25th). Seahawks give them up at 5% (2nd).
The Seahawks lead the series 8–5 since 1999. They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | LAC 23 at SEA 30 |
| 2022 · Wk 7 | SEA 37 at LAC 23 |
| 2018 · Wk 9 | LAC 25 at SEA 17 |
| 2014 · Wk 2 | SEA 21 at LAC 30 |
| 2010 · Wk 3 | LAC 20 at SEA 27 |
2026 records
| Chargers | Seahawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0–7 | 4–4 |
| Division | 0–3 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 0–4 | 1–3 |
| Other conference | 0–3 | 3–1 |
| Home | 0–3 | 3–2 |
| Away | 0–4 | 1–2 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 7 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 14.1 – 25.0 | 23.1 – 19.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chargers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | LAC off | Favors LAC · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.26#32 | -0.09#5 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 35%#32 | 39%#2 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.7#30 | 4.2#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#25 | 5%#2 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.30#32 | -0.10#4 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#28 | 7%#15 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.23#31 | -0.11#10 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#23 | 3.4#3 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 37%#26 | 34%#7 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#29 | 88%#32 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 122#27 | 100#1 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 47#22 | 38#3 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.4#17 | 6.9#11 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#15 | 31#14 | 32 | |
Chargers: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.