2026
Week 4 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Soldier Field
vs
Bears offensevsJets defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Bears, 8 for Jets. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 23–12 and were favored the whole way, never below 59%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 11:52, 9 points for the Jets.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 11:52NYJT.Bagent pass deep middle intended for C.Loveland INTERCEPTED by M.Fitzpatrick at NYJ 39. M.Fitzpatrick ran ob at CHI 34 for 27 yards (S.Roush).20% → 29%
- 2Q1 9:14NYJD.Swift left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was REVERSED. D.Swift left…32% → 39%
- 3Q1 2:56CHID.Swift right end to NYJ 8 for 13 yards (M.Fitzpatrick).66% → 73%
- 4Q1 0:27CHIK.Monangai right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.68% → 75%
- 5Q2 0:27CHIT.Bagent pass deep middle to R.Odunze to NYJ 16 for 37 yards (M.Fitzpatrick).79% → 85%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
I.Williams led the Jets at +5.4 EPA (2 catches for 73). R.Odunze led the Bears at +6.7 EPA (6 catches for 94).
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 8/15 | 119 | 1 | 3 | -4.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Allen94% | 14 | 100% | 59 | +0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Wilson100% | 4 | 27% | 3 | 27 | -1.2 | |
| K.Sadiq69% | 4 | 27% | 0 | 0 | -3.0 | |
| I.Williams94% | 3 | 20% | 2 | 73 | 1 | +5.4 |
| B.Allen94% | 2 | 13% | 2 | 8 | +0.1 | |
| S.Shepard53% | 1 | 7% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 | |
| J.Woods38% | 1 | 7% | 1 | 11 | +0.9 |
Defense M.Fitzpatrick 1 INT, D.Davis 1 sack · Kicking J.Sanders 2/2 FG (long 36)
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Bagent100% | 25/34 | 268 | 1 | 1 | +7.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Monangai54% | 30 | 56% | 146 | 2 | +3.4 |
| D.Swift35% | 15 | 28% | 58 | -7.4 | |
| T.Bagent100% | 4 | 7% | 1 | -3.9 | |
| R.Johnson11% | 4 | 7% | 16 | +0.5 | |
| L.III56% | 1 | 2% | 11 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Loveland92% | 9 | 29% | 6 | 57 | -4.1 | |
| R.Odunze89% | 7 | 23% | 6 | 94 | +6.7 | |
| L.III56% | 6 | 19% | 4 | 63 | +3.3 | |
| K.Raymond51% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 6 | -0.4 | |
| D.Swift35% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 16 | +0.3 | |
| C.Kmet73% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 13 | +1.8 | |
| R.Johnson11% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +1.4 | |
| K.Monangai54% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.3 | |
| S.Roush25% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +0.6 |
Defense D.Bush 1 sack, D.Odeyingbo 1 sack, A.Booker 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 3/3 FG (long 30)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Bears gain +0.11 EPA per dropback (12th). Jets allow +0.12 (25th).
Deep left is open
Jets are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.53 EPA per attempt. Bears send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Bears take a sack on 6% of dropbacks (17th). Jets get home on 8% (8th). League average is 7%.
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Bears create explosive plays on 10% of snaps (10th). Jets give them up at 9% (11th).
The Bears lead the series 6–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | NYJ 12 at CHI 23 |
| 2022 · Wk 12 | CHI 10 at NYJ 31 |
| 2018 · Wk 8 | NYJ 10 at CHI 24 |
| 2014 · Wk 3 | CHI 27 at NYJ 19 |
| 2010 · Wk 16 | NYJ 34 at CHI 38 |
2026 records
| Jets | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–6 | 6–2 |
| Division | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Conference | 2–3 | 4–2 |
| Other conference | 0–3 | 2–0 |
| Home | 1–3 | 3–1 |
| Away | 1–3 | 3–1 |
| Last 5 | LWLLL | WLWWW |
| Streak | Lost 3 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 21.3 – 23.5 | 26.8 – 20.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jets' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors NYJ | NYJ def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.06#8 | +0.02#19 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 47%#8 | 45%#24 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#15 | 5.1#9 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#10 | 9%#11 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.11#12 | +0.12#25 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#17 | 8%#8 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.02#11 | -0.14#7 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#11 | 3.9#15 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#7 | 41%#16 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#18 | 64%#20 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 166#8 | 121#5 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 54#18 | 60#24 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.8#6 | 7.8#17 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 34#11 | 27#11 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Jets: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.