Seahawks offensevs49ers defense

The 49ers won 32–29 from as low as 24% (Q3 5:01, down 23⁠–⁠21). The Seahawks had been 58% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 7:41: S.Darnold sacked at SF 22 for -5 yards (K.White) (47% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 7:24, 20 points for the Seahawks.

The plays that swung it

1. 1Q3 7:24SFB.Purdy pass short left intended for J.Cowing INTERCEPTED by N.Pritchett at SF 43. N.Pritchett pushed ob at SF 23 for 20 yards (C.Colby).35% → 55%+20 SEA
2. 2Q2 0:18SEAG.Holani left guard to SEA 0 for -4 yards (G.Halton). FUMBLES (G.Halton), touched at SEA 0, RECOVERED by SF-G.Halton at SEA -4. TOUCHDOWN.57% → 76%+20 SF
3. 3Q4 0:54SEAS.Darnold pass short left to C.Kupp pushed ob at SF 41 for 9 yards (M.Mustapha). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain…77% → 95%+19 SF
4. 4Q1 9:34SEAM.Dickson punts 39 yards to SF 35 J.Cowing MUFFS catch, touched at SF 33, RECOVERED by SEA-E.Saubert at SF 24.37% → 53%+16 SEA
5. 5Q3 5:06SFD.Samuel left end to SF 35 for no gain (D.Thomas). FUMBLES (D.Thomas), RECOVERED by SEA-J.Jobe at SF 36. SF-D.Samuel was injured during the play.…61% → 76%+15 SEA
6. ★Q4 7:41SEAS.Darnold sacked at SF 22 for -5 yards (K.White).turning point47% → 53%+7 SF

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.