2026
Week 6 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
vs
Chiefs offensevsChargers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Chiefs, 7 for Chargers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Chiefs won 22–6 and were favored the whole way, never below 71%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 10:59, 10 points for the Chiefs.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 10:59KCJ.Herbert pass short right intended for K.Lambert-Smith INTERCEPTED by J.Cochrane [A.Gillotte] at KC 35. J.Cochrane pushed ob at LAC 17 for 48…80% → 90%
- 2Q2 8:37LACP.Mahomes pass short right intended for A.Armstrong INTERCEPTED by C.Hart [T.Tart] at LAC -9. Touchback.9% → 19%
- 3Q1 7:29KCK.Walker up the middle for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.82% → 88%
- 4Q1 12:37LACP.Mahomes pass short left to T.Kelce to LAC 27 for 5 yards (D.Henley). PENALTY on KC-Tr.Smith, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 32 -…22% → 27%
- 5Q1 12:10KCP.Mahomes pass short middle to N.Gray to LAC 26 for 16 yards (T.Jefferson; E.Molden).71% → 76%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
Q.Johnston led the Chargers at +4.6 EPA (1 catches for 57). P.Mahomes led the Chiefs at +3.5 EPA (23 of 30 for 272).
Chargers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Herbert100% | 22/37 | 204 | 1 | 4 | -14.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Vidal37% | 7 | 32% | 21 | -1.3 | |
| O.Hampton50% | 7 | 32% | 18 | -2.6 | |
| J.Herbert100% | 5 | 23% | 26 | +1.2 | |
| K.Mitchell25% | 2 | 9% | 4 | -1.0 | |
| D.Davis7% | 1 | 5% | 4 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Lambert-Smith87% | 9 | 25% | 5 | 32 | -16.0 | |
| C.Kolar66% | 6 | 17% | 3 | 20 | -1.9 | |
| O.II49% | 5 | 14% | 3 | 17 | -3.3 | |
| K.Vidal37% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 19 | +1.6 | |
| O.Hampton50% | 4 | 11% | 4 | 21 | -0.2 | |
| Q.Johnston82% | 3 | 8% | 1 | 57 | +4.6 | |
| T.Jr.47% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 21 | +2.8 | |
| K.Mitchell25% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| L.McConkey12% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 17 | +1.2 |
Defense C.Hart 1 INT · Kicking C.Dicker 2/2 FG (long 30)
Chiefs
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Mahomes100% | 23/30 | 272 | 1 | +2.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.III74% | 19 | 70% | 128 | 2 | +2.9 |
| P.Mahomes100% | 5 | 19% | 16 | +0.7 | |
| E.Johnson30% | 3 | 11% | 6 | -1.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| X.Worthy84% | 7 | 24% | 7 | 73 | +3.3 | |
| T.Kelce66% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 53 | +3.2 | |
| J.Royals74% | 4 | 14% | 2 | 24 | -1.1 | |
| N.Gray64% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 53 | +2.7 | |
| K.III74% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 11 | -0.4 | |
| E.Johnson30% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 18 | -0.2 | |
| A.Armstrong69% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 13 | -4.9 | |
| C.Allen15% | 2 | 7% | 2 | 27 | +0.6 |
Defense J.Cochrane 1 INT, G.Karlaftis 1 sack, C.Conner 1 sack, A.Gillotte 1 sack · Kicking H.Butker 3/4 FG (long 50)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Chiefs' run game is 2nd in EPA per carry (+0.09). Chargers allow -0.06 (23rd).
Deep left is open
Chargers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.21 EPA per attempt. Chiefs send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Chargers give up 133 yards a game to wide receivers (12th), against a league average of 147. Chiefs' wide receivers produce 118 (28th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Chiefs average +0.13 EPA per play (4th). Chargers allow -0.04 (9th). League average is +0.00.
The Chiefs lead the series 32–23 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | LAC 6 at KC 22 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | LAC 16 at KC 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | KC 21 at LAC 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 | LAC 17 at KC 19 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | KC 17 at LAC 10 |
2026 records
| Chargers | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 0–7 | 5–2 |
| Division | 0–3 | 3–1 |
| Conference | 0–4 | 5–1 |
| Other conference | 0–3 | 0–1 |
| Home | 0–3 | 3–0 |
| Away | 0–4 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | LLLLL | WWWLL |
| Streak | Lost 7 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 14.1 – 25.0 | 23.9 – 18.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Chargers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | KC off | Favors KC · Favors LAC | LAC def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.13#4 | -0.04#9 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 48%#6 | 44%#19 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.4#3 | 5.6#20 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#9 | 10%#17 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.14#9 | -0.02#10 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#4 | 6%#23 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.09#2 | -0.06#23 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.3#1 | 4.3#21 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#13 | 31%#3 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#18 | 52%#10 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 118#28 | 133#12 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 85#3 | 52#15 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.7#6 | 6.0#3 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 53#1 | 22#7 | 32 | |
Chiefs: EPA per throw
Chargers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.