2026
Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium
vs
Vikings offensevsColts defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Vikings, 8 for Colts. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 16–10; their low point was 35% at Q3 3:45. The game turned for good at Q4 15:00: K.Murray scrambles right tackle pushed ob at IND 5 for 35 yards (C.Bynum). IND-C.Taylor-Britt was injured during the play (48% → 63%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 4:27, 19 points for the Vikings.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 4:27MINS.Shrader 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right65% → 84%
- 2Q4 1:15MIND.Jones pass short right intended for W.Mallory INTERCEPTED by H.Smith at MIN 44. H.Smith to IND 41 for 15 yards (K.Allen).85% → 99%
- 3Q4 15:00MINK.Murray scrambles right tackle pushed ob at IND 5 for 35 yards (C.Bynum). IND-C.Taylor-Britt was injured during the play.turning point48% → 63%
- 4Q1 9:20INDJ.Taylor left tackle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.38% → 51%
- 5Q3 2:19MINS.Shrader 56 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left40% → 52%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Allen led the Colts at +5.0 EPA (3 catches for 31). K.Murray led the Vikings at +2.3 EPA (14 of 24 for 150).
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones100% | 13/22 | 108 | 1 | 4 | -7.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor67% | 18 | 55% | 95 | 1 | +0.0 |
| S.McGowan33% | 11 | 33% | 46 | -2.1 | |
| D.Jones100% | 4 | 12% | 13 | +3.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Downs85% | 4 | 19% | 2 | 18 | -0.8 | |
| K.Allen49% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 31 | +5.0 | |
| J.Taylor67% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 15 | +0.1 | |
| W.Mallory34% | 3 | 14% | 0 | 0 | -6.4 | |
| L.Treadwell74% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 19 | +2.0 | |
| M.Alie-Cox64% | 2 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 | |
| A.Ogletree57% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 12 | +0.7 | |
| S.McGowan33% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 2 | -0.7 | |
| D.Burks11% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 11 | +2.2 |
Defense A.Adebawore 2 sacks, C.Taylor-Britt 1 sack · Kicking S.Shrader 1/3 FG (long 43)
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Murray100% | 14/24 | 150 | 1 | 3 | -0.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Mason64% | 15 | 52% | 68 | -2.4 | |
| A.Jones25% | 8 | 28% | 26 | -6.3 | |
| K.Murray100% | 5 | 17% | 39 | +2.4 | |
| J.Addison83% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson93% | 7 | 29% | 4 | 44 | +1.1 | |
| T.Hockenson76% | 5 | 21% | 4 | 35 | 1 | +1.4 |
| J.Jennings56% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 34 | +2.1 | |
| J.Addison83% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 20 | +0.2 | |
| J.Mason64% | 2 | 8% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 | |
| A.Jones25% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| T.Felton7% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| G.Bartholomew12% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 17 | +1.6 | |
| M.Bredeson19% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 |
Defense H.Smith 0.5 sacks and 1 INT, B.Cashman 2 sacks, E.Wilson 0.5 sacks, J.Redmond 0.5 sacks · Kicking W.Reichard 3/4 FG (long 52)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Vikings average 3.8 yards per carry (21st). Colts allow 4.8 (29th).
Deep left is open
Colts are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.73 EPA per attempt. Vikings send 11% of their throws there.
Wideouts get blanketed
Colts give up 130 yards a game to wide receivers (8th), against a league average of 147. Vikings' wide receivers produce 105 (30th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Vikings average -0.10 EPA per play (28th). Colts allow +0.07 (24th). League average is +0.00.
The Colts lead the series 6–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). The Vikings have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | IND 10 at MIN 16 |
| 2024 · Wk 9 | IND 13 at MIN 21 |
| 2022 · Wk 15 · OT | IND 36 at MIN 39 |
| 2020 · Wk 2 | MIN 11 at IND 28 |
| 2016 · Wk 15 | IND 34 at MIN 6 |
2026 records
| Colts | Vikings | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–6 | 6–1 |
| Division | 1–2 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 1–5 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 2–0 |
| Home | 1–2 | 3–0 |
| Away | 1–4 | 3–1 |
| Last 5 | WLLLL | WWWWL |
| Streak | Lost 4 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 20.1 – 27.8 | 20.0 – 13.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Colts' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIN off | Favors MIN · Favors IND | IND def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.10#28 | +0.07#24 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 37%#31 | 43%#14 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#24 | 6.1#30 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#15 | 10%#20 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.08#24 | +0.06#19 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 7%#17 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.21#28 | +0.02#30 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#21 | 4.8#29 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#20 | 33%#4 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#16 | 62%#17 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 105#30 | 130#8 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#13 | 51#13 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.6#14 | 6.8#10 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 19#28 | 43#27 | 32 | |
Vikings: EPA per throw
Colts: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.