2025
Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
vs
Patriots offensevsRaiders defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 21 games for Patriots, 17 for Raiders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Raiders won 20–13 from as low as 21% (Q2 1:36, down 10–7). The Patriots had been 56% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q3 11:34: G.Smith pass short middle to J.Meyers to NE 29 for 19 yards (A.Austin, K.Dugger). PENALTY on NE-J.Hawkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards,… (40% → 50%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 1:36, 12 points for the Raiders.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 1:36LVA.Cole punts 56 yards to NE 29 M.Jones to NE 39 for 10 yards (C.Snowden; J.Bobenmoyer). PENALTY on NE-J.Gibbens, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10…21% → 33%
- 2Q2 4:05NED.Maye pass incomplete deep left to M.Hollins. PENALTY on LV-K.Kelly, Defensive Pass Interference, 22 yards, enforced at LV 47 - No Play.58% → 70%
- 3Q3 11:34LVG.Smith pass short middle to J.Meyers to NE 29 for 19 yards (A.Austin, K.Dugger). PENALTY on NE-J.Hawkins, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards,…turning point40% → 50%
- 4Q1 3:34NED.Maye pass deep middle to K.Boutte to LV 22 for 24 yards (D.White; E.Stokes). NE-K.Boutte was injured during the play.39% → 49%
- 5Q3 3:56LVG.Smith pass short middle to B.Bowers pushed ob at NE 35 for 38 yards (C.Woodson).64% → 74%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
G.Smith led the Raiders at +15.1 EPA (24 of 34 for 362). K.Boutte led the Patriots at +8.6 EPA (6 catches for 103).
Raiders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Smith100% | 24/34 | 362 | 1 | 1 | 4 | +15.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jeanty86% | 19 | 79% | 38 | 1 | -5.8 |
| Z.White14% | 3 | 13% | 8 | -1.7 | |
| G.Smith100% | 2 | 8% | 10 | +0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Meyers94% | 10 | 30% | 8 | 97 | +5.2 | |
| B.Bowers51% | 8 | 24% | 5 | 103 | +1.1 | |
| M.Mayer63% | 4 | 12% | 4 | 38 | +5.0 | |
| D.Jr.60% | 4 | 12% | 2 | 45 | +2.5 | |
| T.Tucker90% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 54 | 1 | +5.2 |
| A.Jeanty86% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 2 | -1.2 | |
| A.Bachman3% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| J.Bech6% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 23 | +3.0 |
Defense I.Pola-Mao 1 INT, M.Crosby 1 sack, M.Koonce 1 sack, T.Wilson 1 sack · Kicking D.Carlson 2/3 FG (long 51)
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 30/46 | 287 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -0.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson65% | 7 | 39% | 15 | -3.1 | |
| T.Henderson35% | 5 | 28% | 27 | +0.4 | |
| D.Maye100% | 4 | 22% | 11 | -1.0 | |
| A.Gibson7% | 1 | 6% | 3 | -0.3 | |
| D.Douglas63% | 1 | 6% | 4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Henry93% | 8 | 18% | 4 | 66 | +2.9 | |
| K.Boutte82% | 8 | 18% | 6 | 103 | +8.6 | |
| S.Diggs41% | 7 | 16% | 6 | 57 | +0.6 | |
| D.Douglas63% | 7 | 16% | 2 | -2 | 1 | -3.7 |
| T.Henderson35% | 6 | 13% | 6 | 24 | -3.0 | |
| R.Stevenson65% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 12 | -0.5 | |
| M.Hollins56% | 2 | 4% | 1 | 3 | +1.0 | |
| A.Hooper32% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 10 | +0.8 | |
| A.Gibson7% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| D.Maye100% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 2 | -1.3 | |
| K.Williams10% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 12 | +0.8 |
Defense H.III 2.5 sacks, J.Hawkins 1 sack and 1 INT, K.Chaisson 0.5 sacks · Kicking A.Borregales 2/3 FG (long 44)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Patriots
Patriots convert 41% of third downs (13th). Raiders allow 47% (31st).
Deep middle is open
Raiders are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.56 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Raiders give up 5.7 targets a game to tight ends (3rd), against a league average of 7.3. Patriots' tight ends produce 6.4 (19th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Patriots create explosive plays on 12% of snaps (4th). Raiders give them up at 8% (7th).
The Patriots lead the series 8–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). Oct 11, 2026, at Gillette Stadium: the Patriots won 45–17. Drake Maye started at quarterback for the Patriots and Kirk Cousins for the Raiders; Mike Vrabel and Klint Kubliak coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | LV 17 at NE 45 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | LV 20 at NE 13 |
| 2023 · Wk 6 | NE 17 at LV 21 |
| 2022 · Wk 15 | NE 24 at LV 30 |
| 2020 · Wk 3 | LV 20 at NE 36 |
2025 records
| Raiders | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–14 | 14–3 |
| Division | 1–5 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 0–5 | 5–0 |
| Home | 2–7 | 6–3 |
| Away | 1–7 | 8–0 |
| Last 5 | LLLLW | WLWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 14.2 – 25.4 | 28.8 – 18.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Raiders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors LV | LV def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#5 | +0.03#19 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#7 | 45%#21 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#3 | 5.2#11 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#4 | 8%#7 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#5 | +0.08#22 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 7%#18 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.10#27 | -0.07#14 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#16 | 4.0#10 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#13 | 47%#31 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#11 | 59%#18 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#7 | 147#21 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#14 | 39#3 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.4#19 | 5.7#3 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#10 | 28#10 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Raiders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.