2025
Week 10 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
vs
Dolphins offensevsBills defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Dolphins, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Dolphins won 30–13 from as low as 17% (Q1 14:22, tied 0–0). The Bills had been 75% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 9:13: J.Cook left tackle to MIA 25 for 9 yards (D.Trader, J.Jones). FUMBLES (J.Jones), touched at MIA 17, RECOVERED by MIA-J.Brents at MIA 5 (50% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 15:00, 15 points for the Dolphins.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 15:00MIAD.T.Tagovailoa pass deep right to J.Waddle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BUF-M.Hairston, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.38% → 54%
- 2Q3 6:05MIAJ.Allen pass short left intended for D.Knox INTERCEPTED by I.Melifonwu at MIA -2. Touchback.74% → 88%
- 3Q4 7:19MIAJ.Allen left tackle to MIA 44 for 15 yards (J.Brooks; J.Jones). FUMBLES (J.Brooks), RECOVERED by MIA-M.Fitzpatrick at MIA 38.81% → 93%
- 4Q2 2:00MIAJ.Allen sacked at BUF 28 for -6 yards (Z.Sieler).63% → 74%
- 5Q4 12:44BUFJ.Allen pass deep left to K.Coleman for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.9% → 20%
- ★Q2 9:13MIAJ.Cook left tackle to MIA 25 for 9 yards (D.Trader, J.Jones). FUMBLES (J.Jones), touched at MIA 17, RECOVERED by MIA-J.Brents at MIA 5.turning point50% → 54%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Shakir led the Bills at +3.8 EPA (7 catches for 58). D.Achane led the Dolphins at +10.0 EPA (22 carries for 174).
Bills
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Allen96% | 28/40 | 306 | 2 | 1 | 3 | +4.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Cook50% | 13 | 59% | 53 | -5.5 | |
| J.Allen96% | 4 | 18% | 31 | -0.8 | |
| R.Davis10% | 2 | 9% | -2 | -1.0 | |
| M.Trubisky4% | 1 | 5% | 4 | -0.6 | |
| T.Johnson40% | 1 | 5% | 2 | -0.1 | |
| E.Moore37% | 1 | 5% | -1 | -1.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Shakir66% | 9 | 23% | 7 | 58 | +3.8 | |
| K.Coleman62% | 8 | 21% | 3 | 46 | 1 | +0.1 |
| J.Cook50% | 5 | 13% | 5 | 24 | +0.2 | |
| D.Knox68% | 4 | 10% | 3 | 37 | -3.1 | |
| D.Kincaid26% | 3 | 8% | 2 | 37 | +2.0 | |
| T.Johnson40% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 24 | +0.7 | |
| E.Moore37% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 9 | -0.1 | |
| R.Davis10% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 0 | -1.5 | |
| J.Hawes43% | 2 | 5% | 1 | 26 | 1 | -0.7 |
| C.Samuel35% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 21 | +3.1 | |
| T.Shavers35% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 24 | +2.3 |
Defense C.Bishop 1 INT, M.Hairston 1 INT
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tagovailoa100% | 15/21 | 173 | 2 | 2 | +9.0 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Achane89% | 22 | 69% | 174 | 2 | +8.6 |
| J.Wright19% | 5 | 16% | 17 | -1.2 | |
| T.Tagovailoa100% | 2 | 6% | -1 | 0.0 | |
| A.Ingold40% | 1 | 3% | 6 | +0.7 | |
| M.Washington45% | 1 | 3% | 4 | -0.1 | |
| O.II6% | 1 | 3% | -3 | -1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Waddle83% | 7 | 33% | 5 | 84 | 1 | +4.6 |
| D.Achane89% | 6 | 29% | 6 | 51 | +1.4 | |
| G.Dulcich58% | 4 | 19% | 1 | 22 | +0.3 | |
| M.Washington45% | 3 | 14% | 2 | 9 | 1 | +1.3 |
| N.Westbrook-Ikhine47% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 7 | +1.6 |
Defense I.Melifonwu 1 INT, Z.Sieler 1 sack, B.Chubb 1 sack, W.Jr. 1 sack · Kicking R.Patterson 1/1 FG (long 46)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Dolphins average 4.8 yards per carry (3rd). Bills allow 4.9 (30th).
Deep middle is open
Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Dolphins send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Bills give up 4.6 targets a game to tight ends (1st), against a league average of 7.3. Dolphins' tight ends produce 6.0 (25th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Dolphins gain 5.5 yards per play (14th). Bills give up 5.4 (16th), with the league at 5.4.
The Bills lead the series 35–20 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 10 | BUF 13 at MIA 30 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | MIA 21 at BUF 31 |
| 2024 · Wk 9 | MIA 27 at BUF 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 2 | BUF 31 at MIA 10 |
| 2023 · Wk 18 | BUF 21 at MIA 14 |
2025 records
| Bills | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12–5 | 7–10 |
| Division | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 9–3 | 3–9 |
| Other conference | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Home | 7–2 | 5–4 |
| Away | 5–3 | 2–6 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | WLLWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 28.3 – 21.5 | 20.4 – 24.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIA off | Favors MIA · Favors BUF | BUF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.02#21 | -0.01#13 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#26 | 43%#13 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.5#14 | 5.4#16 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#9 | 11%#27 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#18 | -0.09#9 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#19 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.03#9 | +0.04#29 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.8#3 | 4.9#30 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#26 | 43%#24 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#23 | 59%#19 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 110#26 | 122#7 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 50#19 | 27#1 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.0#25 | 4.6#1 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#9 | 28#9 | 32 | |
Dolphins: EPA per throw
Bills: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.