2025
Week 12 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Soldier Field
vs
Bears offensevsSteelers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 19 games for Bears, 18 for Steelers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 31–28; their low point was 26% at Q2 11:07. The game turned for good at Q3 9:17: C.Williams pass short left to D.Swift to PIT 25 for 14 yards (K.Benton) (48% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 1:32, 22 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 1:32PITDirect snap to Co.Heyward. K.Gainwell right end for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the…47% → 69%
- 2Q2 14:54PITC.Williams sacked at CHI -2 for -12 yards (T.Watt). FUMBLES (T.Watt) [T.Watt], RECOVERED by PIT-N.Herbig at CHI -1. TOUCHDOWN.48% → 64%
- 3Q3 4:04CHIM.Rudolph sacked at CHI 45 for -8 yards (M.Sweat). FUMBLES (M.Sweat) [M.Sweat], touched at CHI 45, RECOVERED by CHI-M.Sweat at CHI 46. ** Injury…60% → 75%
- 4Q3 8:33CHIC.Williams pass deep right to D.Moore for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-J.Sawyer, Defensive Offside, declined.51% → 65%
- 5Q1 12:41CHIM.Rudolph pass deep left intended for D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by N.Wright at CHI 44. N.Wright pushed ob at CHI 44 for no gain (D.Metcalf).49% → 60%
- ★Q3 9:17CHIC.Williams pass short left to D.Swift to PIT 25 for 14 yards (K.Benton).turning point48% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Gainwell led the Steelers at +5.8 EPA (10 carries for 92). C.Williams led the Bears at +3.5 EPA (19 of 35 for 239).
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Rudolph100% | 24/31 | 171 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -5.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren50% | 18 | 50% | 68 | 1 | +0.5 |
| K.Gainwell51% | 10 | 28% | 92 | +6.1 | |
| M.Rudolph100% | 3 | 8% | 7 | +1.3 | |
| J.Smith49% | 2 | 6% | 7 | -0.2 | |
| D.Metcalf85% | 2 | 6% | 12 | 1 | +1.7 |
| C.Heyward6% | 1 | 3% | 0 | -3.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Metcalf85% | 8 | 26% | 5 | 22 | -4.7 | |
| K.Gainwell51% | 6 | 19% | 6 | 30 | -0.2 | |
| C.III46% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 36 | +1.9 | |
| J.Smith49% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 21 | +0.9 | |
| P.Freiermuth47% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 19 | 1 | +2.2 |
| R.Wilson28% | 3 | 10% | 0 | 0 | -2.3 | |
| D.Washington68% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 22 | +1.5 | |
| B.Skowronek36% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 21 | +1.4 |
Defense T.Watt 1 sack
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 19/35 | 239 | 3 | 1 | +0.5 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Monangai54% | 12 | 48% | 48 | 1 | +3.2 |
| D.Swift45% | 8 | 32% | 15 | -7.1 | |
| C.Williams100% | 4 | 16% | 21 | +3.0 | |
| L.III51% | 1 | 4% | 15 | +1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Odunze78% | 9 | 30% | 3 | 53 | +0.4 | |
| D.Moore77% | 7 | 23% | 5 | 64 | 2 | +2.9 |
| C.Loveland65% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 49 | 1 | +2.8 |
| L.III51% | 5 | 17% | 3 | 46 | +2.2 | |
| D.Smythe29% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.3 | |
| O.Zaccheaus35% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.0 | |
| D.Swift45% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 14 | +0.9 | |
| C.Kmet63% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.3 |
Defense M.Sweat 2 sacks, N.Wright 1 INT · Kicking C.Santos 1/1 FG (long 47)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Tight ends feast
Steelers give up 64 yards a game to tight ends (28th), against a league average of 53. Bears' tight ends produce 70 (3rd).
Deep middle is open
Steelers are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Bears send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Field goals, not touchdowns
Bears score a touchdown on 58% of red zone trips (17th). Steelers allow 54% (7th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Bears succeed on 45% of plays (11th) against a defense that allows 44% (15th).
The Bears lead the series 4–2 since 1999 (they first met in 2005). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 12 | PIT 28 at CHI 31 |
| 2021 · Wk 9 | CHI 27 at PIT 29 |
| 2017 · Wk 3 · OT | PIT 17 at CHI 23 |
| 2013 · Wk 3 | CHI 40 at PIT 23 |
| 2009 · Wk 2 | PIT 14 at CHI 17 |
2025 records
| Steelers | Bears | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10–7 | 11–6 |
| Division | 4–2 | 2–4 |
| Conference | 8–4 | 7–5 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 4–1 |
| Home | 6–3 | 6–2 |
| Away | 4–4 | 5–4 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LWWLL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 2 |
| Points a game | 23.4 – 22.8 | 25.9 – 24.4 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Steelers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CHI off | Favors CHI · Favors PIT | PIT def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.07#8 | +0.02#18 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 45%#11 | 44%#15 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.7#10 | 5.6#19 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#5 | 9%#15 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.09#9 | +0.03#17 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#2 | 7%#10 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | 0.00#6 | -0.01#26 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#10 | 4.3#19 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#6 | 44%#28 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#17 | 54%#7 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 143#16 | 167#29 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 70#3 | 64#28 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.9#5 | 8.3#28 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 29#17 | 30#16 | 32 | |
Bears: EPA per throw
Steelers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.