2025
Week 14 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium
vs
Jets offensevsDolphins defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Jets, 17 for Dolphins. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Dolphins won 34–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 59%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 13:42, 9 points for the Dolphins.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 13:42MIAD.Achane left guard to NYJ 3 for 39 yards (F.Mauigoa).64% → 73%
- 2Q1 8:54MIAD.Achane left tackle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-T.Baron was injured during the play.84% → 89%
- 3Q1 11:44MIAT.Tagovailoa pass short left to G.Dulcich to MIA 43 for 23 yards (I.Oliver).75% → 80%
- 4Q1 14:22MIAJ.Waddle right end ran ob at NYJ 42 for 21 yards (J.Sherwood).60% → 64%
- 5Q2 1:25NYJB.Cook pass incomplete deep left to I.Williams. PENALTY on MIA-M.Fitzpatrick, Defensive Pass Interference, 39 yards, enforced at NYJ 45 - No Play.7% → 11%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Achane led the Dolphins at +7.5 EPA (7 carries for 92). I.Davis led the Jets at +4.1 EPA (2 carries for 22).
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tagovailoa89% | 13/21 | 127 | 1 | 1 | +1.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Wright52% | 24 | 59% | 107 | 1 | +2.7 |
| D.Achane34% | 7 | 17% | 92 | 1 | +6.0 |
| O.II25% | 5 | 12% | 17 | 1 | +1.2 |
| Z.Wilson11% | 2 | 5% | -2 | 0.0 | |
| D.Waller37% | 1 | 2% | 4 | +0.4 | |
| T.Tagovailoa89% | 1 | 2% | 0 | -0.9 | |
| J.Waddle78% | 1 | 2% | 21 | +1.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Waddle78% | 7 | 33% | 5 | 50 | 1 | +3.6 |
| M.Washington52% | 4 | 19% | 3 | 10 | -1.9 | |
| D.Waller37% | 3 | 14% | 1 | 13 | -1.3 | |
| G.Dulcich54% | 3 | 14% | 3 | 41 | +3.4 | |
| J.Wright52% | 3 | 14% | 0 | 0 | -1.8 | |
| D.Achane34% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 13 | +1.5 |
Defense Z.Sieler 2.5 sacks, R.Douglas 1 INT, T.Dodson 1 INT, E.Bonner 1 INT · Kicking R.Patterson 2/2 FG (long 53)
Jets
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Cook90% | 14/30 | 163 | 2 | 6 | -17.8 | |
| T.Taylor10% | 1/4 | 6 | 1 | -6.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Hall76% | 14 | 82% | 43 | -3.5 | |
| I.Davis24% | 2 | 12% | 22 | +4.1 | |
| B.Cook90% | 1 | 6% | 0 | -2.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.III97% | 8 | 25% | 4 | 34 | -4.1 | |
| M.Taylor66% | 8 | 25% | 5 | 51 | -2.2 | |
| A.Mitchell91% | 6 | 19% | 1 | 24 | -8.3 | |
| J.Ruckert53% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 19 | +0.3 | |
| I.Williams57% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 24 | +1.4 | |
| A.Lazard | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| A.Beck12% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 17 | +1.1 | |
| S.Smartt5% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| B.Hall76% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 |
Defense Q.Williams 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 1/1 FG (long 31)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
Dolphins give up 37 yards a game to running backs (25th), against a league average of 32. Jets' running backs produce 35 (12th).
Deep middle is open
Dolphins are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.54 EPA per attempt. Jets send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Wideouts get blanketed
Dolphins give up 127 yards a game to wide receivers (9th), against a league average of 140. Jets' wide receivers produce 92 (31st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Jets succeed on 40% of plays (29th) against a defense that allows 48% (29th).
The Dolphins lead the series 29–26 since 1999. They have won the last 3. Oct 25, 2026, at MetLife Stadium: the Dolphins won 28–25. Geno Smith started at quarterback for the Jets and Malik Willis for the Dolphins; Aaron Glenn and Jeff Hafley coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 | MIA 28 at NYJ 25 |
| 2025 · Wk 14 | MIA 34 at NYJ 10 |
| 2025 · Wk 4 | NYJ 21 at MIA 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | MIA 20 at NYJ 32 |
| 2024 · Wk 14 · OT | NYJ 26 at MIA 32 |
2025 records
| Dolphins | Jets | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7–10 | 3–14 |
| Division | 3–3 | 0–6 |
| Conference | 3–9 | 2–10 |
| Other conference | 4–1 | 1–4 |
| Home | 5–4 | 2–7 |
| Away | 2–6 | 1–7 |
| Last 5 | WLLWL | LLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 5 |
| Points a game | 20.4 – 24.9 | 17.6 – 29.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Dolphins' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYJ off | Favors NYJ · Favors MIA | MIA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.13#29 | +0.09#26 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 40%#29 | 48%#29 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#29 | 5.9#26 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#28 | 11%#25 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.19#28 | +0.13#26 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 11%#30 | 7%#13 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.11#28 | -0.03#20 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#15 | 4.6#25 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#27 | 41%#17 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 44%#31 | 65%#26 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 92#31 | 127#9 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#31 | 66#29 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.2#20 | 8.2#25 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 35#12 | 37#25 | 32 | |
Jets: EPA per throw
Dolphins: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.