2025
Week 15 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium
vs
Buccaneers offensevsFalcons defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Buccaneers, 17 for Falcons. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Falcons won 29–28 from as low as 3% (Q4 11:03, down 28–14). The Buccaneers had been 71% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:04: Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD (43% → 100%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:04ATLZ.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOODturning point43% → 100%
- 2Q4 0:49ATLK.Cousins pass deep right to D.Sills to TB 36 for 21 yards (A.Winfield).16% → 47%
- 3Q4 3:40ATLK.Cousins pass short right to K.Pitts for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld.…14% → 30%
- 4Q2 1:32ATLK.Cousins pass deep right to K.Pitts to TB 17 for 36 yards (A.Winfield; C.Izien).33% → 45%
- 5Q4 2:00TBR.Dixon punts 45 yards to ATL 20 D.Thompkins ran ob at ATL 30 for 10 yards (M.Watts).18% → 28%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Cousins led the Falcons at +17.3 EPA (30 of 44 for 373). B.Mayfield led the Buccaneers at +3.6 EPA (19 of 34 for 277).
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Cousins100% | 30/44 | 373 | 3 | 1 | +17.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson90% | 19 | 90% | 93 | 1 | +1.7 |
| T.Allgeier17% | 2 | 10% | 18 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Pitts96% | 12 | 29% | 11 | 166 | 3 | +13.5 |
| B.Robinson90% | 11 | 27% | 8 | 82 | -0.2 | |
| D.Sills94% | 10 | 24% | 6 | 78 | +2.5 | |
| D.Mooney92% | 6 | 15% | 3 | 35 | +1.3 | |
| C.Woerner59% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 12 | +0.1 |
Defense J.Jr. 2 sacks, D.Alford 1 INT, L.London 1 sack, B.Dorlus 1 sack · Kicking Z.Gonzalez 1/1 FG (long 43)
Buccaneers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Mayfield100% | 19/34 | 277 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +4.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Irving54% | 16 | 73% | 60 | -1.5 | |
| S.Tucker12% | 4 | 18% | 7 | 1 | +0.1 |
| B.Mayfield100% | 1 | 5% | 1 | -0.8 | |
| R.White42% | 1 | 5% | 20 | +1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Evans55% | 12 | 38% | 6 | 132 | +2.2 | |
| E.Egbuka64% | 7 | 22% | 4 | 64 | +3.5 | |
| C.Jr.96% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 20 | 1 | +2.5 |
| B.Irving54% | 3 | 9% | 1 | 11 | -0.7 | |
| J.McMillan46% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 38 | +2.7 | |
| R.White42% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.3 | |
| D.Culp29% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | 1 | +1.7 |
| T.Johnson22% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.4 |
Defense H.Reddick 1 sack · Kicking C.McLaughlin 2/2 FG (long 52)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Falcons give up 144 yards a game to wide receivers (20th), against a league average of 140. Buccaneers' wide receivers produce 155 (9th).
Deep middle is open
Falcons are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.79 EPA per attempt. Buccaneers send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Falcons give up 6.0 targets a game to tight ends (5th), against a league average of 7.3. Buccaneers' tight ends produce 5.1 (32nd).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Buccaneers average -0.01 EPA per play (19th). Falcons allow -0.01 (15th). League average is +0.01.
The Buccaneers lead the series 26–25 since 1999. Nov 1, 2026, at Raymond James Stadium: the Buccaneers won 16–0. Baker Mayfield started at quarterback for the Buccaneers and Michael Penix Jr. for the Falcons; Todd Bowles and Raheem Morris coached.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | ATL 0 at TB 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 15 | ATL 29 at TB 28 |
| 2025 · Wk 1 | TB 23 at ATL 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | ATL 31 at TB 26 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 · OT | TB 30 at ATL 36 |
2025 records
| Falcons | Buccaneers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 8–9 |
| Division | 3–3 | 3–3 |
| Conference | 7–5 | 6–6 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 2–3 |
| Home | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Away | 4–5 | 4–5 |
| Last 5 | LWWWW | LLLLW |
| Streak | Won 4 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 20.8 – 23.6 | 22.4 – 24.2 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Falcons' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | TB off | Favors TB · Favors ATL | ATL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#19 | -0.01#15 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 42%#24 | 45%#18 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.2#24 | 5.3#15 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#15 | 10%#20 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | -0.03#13 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#16 | 10%#4 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#24 | -0.02#24 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.8#27 | 4.4#23 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 42%#12 | 41%#16 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 56%#24 | 53%#4 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 155#9 | 144#20 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 35#32 | 46#8 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#32 | 6.0#5 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 31#13 | 30#17 | 32 | |
Buccaneers: EPA per throw
Falcons: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.