2026
Week 16 · Friday 4:30 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Bills offensevsBroncos defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Bills, 8 for Broncos. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
Backs catch passes
Broncos give up 48 yards a game to running backs (31st), against a league average of 32. Bills' running backs produce 46 (7th).
Short middle is open
Broncos are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.27 EPA per attempt. Bills send 16% of their throws there.
Wideouts get blanketed
Broncos give up 131 yards a game to wide receivers (9th), against a league average of 147. Bills' wide receivers produce 145 (17th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Bills succeed on 49% of plays (4th) against a defense that allows 40% (6th).
Players to watch
Bills
Josh AllenQB · 135/205 · 1793 yds · 11 TD · 5 INTEPA per dropback +0.27 · 5th
James CookRB · 138 car · 707 yds · 7 TD · 12 recEPA per touch +0.08 · 11th
Khalil ShakirWR · 27 rec · 354 yds · 1 TD · 38 tgtEPA per target +0.40
Dalton KincaidTE · 27 rec · 401 yds · 2 TD · 35 tgtEPA per target +0.50 · 8thGreg RousseauWeakside Linebacker · 24 tackles · 7 sacks · 7 PD7 sacks · T-3rd in the NFLDavison IgbinosunRight Cornerback · 28 tackles · 1 INT · 8 PD1 INT
Broncos
Bo NixQB · 149/250 · 1493 yds · 9 TD · 3 INTEPA per dropback -0.01 · 23rd
Jonah ColemanRB · 30 car · 134 yds · 2 TD · 9 recEPA per touch +0.17 · 2nd
Jaylen WaddleWR · 29 rec · 315 yds · 2 TD · 51 tgtEPA per target +0.08
Courtland SuttonWR · 20 rec · 221 yds · 1 TD · 37 tgtEPA per target -0.15Ja'Quan McMillianNickel Back · 25 tackles · 2 sacks · 1 INT · 7 PD1 INTZach AllenLeft Defensive End · 25 tackles · 4.5 sacks · 3 PD4.5 sacks · T-16th in the NFLThe series is even at 6–6 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). Jan 17, 2026, at Empower Field at Mile High: the Broncos won 33–30 in overtime. Bo Nix started at quarterback for the Broncos and Josh Allen for the Bills; Sean Payton and Sean McDermott coached.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 20 · OT · playoffs | BUF 30 at DEN 33 |
| 2024 · Wk 19 · playoffs | DEN 7 at BUF 31 |
| 2023 · Wk 10 | DEN 24 at BUF 22 |
| 2020 · Wk 15 | BUF 48 at DEN 19 |
| 2019 · Wk 12 | DEN 3 at BUF 20 |
2026 records
| Bills | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–1 | 6–2 |
| Division | 0–1 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 3–1 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 3–1 |
| Home | 3–1 | 4–0 |
| Away | 3–0 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WLWWW | LWWWW |
| Streak | Won 3 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 33.3 – 25.9 | 21.5 – 20.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.
Bills offense · 3WR 1TE
- QBJosh Allen#17 · 135/205 · 1793 yds · 11 TD · 5 INT
- RBJames Cook III#4 · 138 car · 707 yds · 7 TD · 12 rec
- WRDJ Moore#2 · 16 rec · 260 yds · 2 TD · 27 tgt
- WRKhalil Shakir#10 · 27 rec · 354 yds · 1 TD · 38 tgt
- WRKeon Coleman#0 · 20 rec · 287 yds · 3 TD · 27 tgt
- TEDalton Kincaid#86 · 27 rec · 401 yds · 2 TD · 35 tgt
- LTDion Dawkins#73
- LGAlec Anderson#70
- CConnor McGovern#66
- RGO'Cyrus Torrence#64
- RTSpencer Brown#79
Broncos defense · Base 3-4 D
- RDEEyioma Uwazurike#96 · 15 tackles · 1 sack
- NTD.J. Jones#93 · 16 tackles · 1 sack · 1 PD
- LDEZach Allen#99 · 25 tackles · 4.5 sacks · 3 PD
- WLBJonathon Cooper#0 · 4 tackles
- SLBNik Bonitto#15 · 17 tackles · 3.5 sacks
- RILBJustin Strnad#40 · 38 tackles · 0.5 sacks · 2 PD
- LILBAlex Singleton#49 · 98 tackles · 2 sacks · 2 PD
- RCBRiley Moss#21 · 24 tackles · 1 INT · 7 PD
- LCBPat Surtain II#2 · 29 tackles · 2 PD
- NBJa'Quan McMillian#29 · 25 tackles · 2 sacks · 1 INT · 7 PD
- SSTalanoa Hufanga#9 · 22 tackles · 1 sack · 2 INT · 3 PD
- FSBrandon Jones#22 · 54 tackles · 2 INT · 5 PD
Starters from each team's current depth chart (nflverse, from ESPN), drawn in the offense's base three-receiver set against the defense's base front. The nickel back, the extra defensive back most teams use against three receivers, is drawn lighter. Left and right are as the offense sees the field. The toggle at the top flips which offense is drawn.
| Stat | BUF off | Favors BUF · Favors DEN | DEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.18#1 | -0.03#12 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 49%#4 | 40%#6 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.5#2 | 5.2#10 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 15%#1 | 9%#15 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.23#4 | -0.06#6 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#13 | 7%#14 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#6 | -0.02#26 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#7 | 4.4#22 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 47%#6 | 43%#22 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 72%#3 | 48%#8 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 145#17 | 131#9 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 64#9 | 68#26 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.1#19 | 8.8#27 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 46#7 | 48#31 | 32 | |
Bills: EPA per throw
Broncos: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.