DOWN X DOWN › week 17 › Broncos at Patriots
Updated Nov 3, 7:02 AM ET
2026
2026this season2025final

Week 17 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium

DENvsNE

Broncos offensevsPatriots defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Broncos, 8 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

DEN offenseNE offense
Keys to the game · where this matchup tilts, from the season numbers4 reads
01
Biggest edge

Backs catch passes

Patriots give up 31 yards a game to running backs (15th), against a league average of 32. Broncos' running backs produce 53 (3rd).

02
Opportunity

Deep left is open

Patriots are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.96 EPA per attempt. Broncos send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

03
Watch out

Third downs favor Patriots

Broncos convert 31% of third downs (32nd). Patriots allow 38% (10th).

04
Wash

EPA per play

Call this one even. Broncos average -0.03 EPA per play (21st). Patriots allow +0.01 (18th). League average is +0.00.

Players to watch

DEN Broncos

10Bo NixQB · 149/250 · 1493 yds · 9 TD · 3 INTEPA per dropback -0.01 · 23rd20Jonah ColemanRB · 30 car · 134 yds · 2 TD · 9 recEPA per touch +0.17 · 2nd17Jaylen WaddleWR · 29 rec · 315 yds · 2 TD · 51 tgtEPA per target +0.0814Courtland SuttonWR · 20 rec · 221 yds · 1 TD · 37 tgtEPA per target -0.1529Ja'Quan McMillianNickel Back · 25 tackles · 2 sacks · 1 INT · 7 PD1 INT99Zach AllenLeft Defensive End · 25 tackles · 4.5 sacks · 3 PD4.5 sacks · T-17th in the NFL

NE Patriots

10Drake MayeQB · 157/234 · 1983 yds · 15 TD · 8 INTEPA per dropback +0.21 · 9th38Rhamondre StevensonRB · 96 car · 367 yds · 3 TD · 23 recEPA per touch 0.00 · 18th3DeMario DouglasWR · 26 rec · 332 yds · 4 TD · 37 tgtEPA per target +0.57 · 13th85Hunter HenryTE · 29 rec · 326 yds · 2 TD · 34 tgtEPA per target +0.55 · 5th91Elijah PonderWeakside Linebacker · 23 tackles · 6 sacks · 1 PD6 sacks · T-7th in the NFL25Marcus JonesNickel Back · 39 tackles · 1 sack · 1 INT · 6 PD1 INT
The series · Broncos and Patriots since 1999, and this season's records23 meetings

The Patriots lead the series 13–10 since 1999. They have won the last 2. Jan 25, 2026, at Empower Field at Mile High: the Patriots won 10–7. Jarrett Stidham started at quarterback for the Broncos and Drake Maye for the Patriots; Sean Payton and Mike Vrabel coached.

Broncos at home7–7the Broncos' record
In New England3–6the Broncos' record
Most pointsBroncos 31 · Patriots 452001 · 2011
Biggest winBroncos by 14 · Patriots by 352005 · 2011
Playoffs3–2the Broncos' record

The last 5

2025 · Wk 21 · playoffsNE 10 at DEN 7
2023 · Wk 16NE 26 at DEN 23
2020 · Wk 6DEN 18 at NE 12
2017 · Wk 10NE 41 at DEN 16
2016 · Wk 15NE 16 at DEN 3

2026 records

BroncosPatriots
Overall6–25–3
Division2–13–0
Conference3–15–1
Other conference3–10–2
Home4–03–0
Away2–22–3
Last 5LWWWWWWWLW
StreakWon 4Won 1
Points a game21.5 – 20.623.0 – 20.3

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Broncos' side. Records are this regular season.

The lineups · Broncos offense against the Patriots defenseDepth charts
Patriots defense · 3-4 DBroncos offense · 3WR 1TE72Bolles74Powers60Wattenberg77Meinerz69McGlinchey1Engram10Nix20Coleman17Waddle11Franklin14Sutton97Williams94Durden90Barmore91Ponder5Jones14Spillane53Elliss0Gonzalez7Davis25Jones4Woodson31Byard

Broncos offense · 3WR 1TE

  • QBBo Nix#10 · 149/250 · 1493 yds · 9 TD · 3 INT
  • RBJonah Coleman#20 · 30 car · 134 yds · 2 TD · 9 rec
  • WRJaylen Waddle#17 · 29 rec · 315 yds · 2 TD · 51 tgt
  • WRCourtland Sutton#14 · 20 rec · 221 yds · 1 TD · 37 tgt
  • WRTroy Franklin#11 · 6 rec · 69 yds · 0 TD · 11 tgt
  • TEEvan Engram#1 · 13 rec · 136 yds · 1 TD · 25 tgt
  • LTGarett Bolles#72
  • LGBen Powers#74
  • CLuke Wattenberg#60
  • RGQuinn Meinerz#77
  • RTMike McGlinchey#69

Patriots defense · Base 3-4 D

  • RDEMilton Williams#97 · 20 tackles · 1 sack
  • NTCory Durden#94 · 19 tackles · 1.5 sacks
  • LDEChristian Barmore#90 · 7 tackles · 3.5 sacks
  • WLBElijah Ponder#91 · 23 tackles · 6 sacks · 1 PD
  • SLBDre'Mont Jones#5 · 14 tackles · 1 sack
  • RILBRobert Spillane#14 · 47 tackles · 2 PD
  • LILBChristian Elliss#53 · 58 tackles · 1.5 sacks · 1 PD
  • RCBChristian Gonzalez#0 · 21 tackles · 5 PD
  • LCBCarlton Davis III#7 · 25 tackles · 1 PD
  • NBMarcus Jones#25 · 39 tackles · 1 sack · 1 INT · 6 PD
  • SSCraig Woodson#4 · 36 tackles · 1 INT · 3 PD
  • FSKevin Byard#31 · 40 tackles · 1 INT · 3 PD

Starters from each team's current depth chart (nflverse, from ESPN), drawn in the offense's base three-receiver set against the defense's base front. The nickel back, the extra defensive back most teams use against three receivers, is drawn lighter. Left and right are as the offense sees the field. The toggle at the top flips which offense is drawn.

Head to head · DEN offense against NE defense
StatDEN DEN offFavors DEN · Favors NENE NE def allowsNFL avg
Overall
EPA per play
-0.03#21
+0.01#18+0.00
Success rate
38%#29
44%#1644%
Yards per play
4.9#26
5.3#125.4
Explosive play rate
7%#27
9%#169%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback
-0.02#22
+0.08#22+0.03
Sack rate
4%#6
8%#57%
Running
Run EPA per carry
-0.06#15
-0.09#14-0.08
Yards per carry
3.7#25
3.8#114.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion
31%#32
38%#1041%
Red zone TD rate
68%#8
57%#1261%
Targets by position
WR yards per game
107#29
152#23147
TE yards per game
28#31
52#1555
TE targets per game
4.9#31
7.9#207.6
RB receiving yards per game
53#3
31#1532
Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Broncos: EPA per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
-0.037% of throws
4too few
+0.026% of throws
Short
+0.0435% of throws
-0.209% of throws
+0.0442% of throws

Patriots: EPA allowed per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.9619 throws
+0.788 throws
+0.8111 throws
Short
+0.0483 throws
+0.4342 throws
+0.0693 throws

Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.