2026
Week 3 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
vs
Colts offensevsTexans defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Colts, 7 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Colts won 19–17; their low point was 36% at Q1 11:17. The Texans had been 57% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 1:43: D.Jones pass deep middle to L.Treadwell to HOU 45 for 20 yards (C.Bullock) (40% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:21, 27 points for the Colts.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:21INDS.Shrader 53 yard field goal is GOOD58% → 85%
- 2Q4 0:01INDC.Stroud pass incomplete deep right.82% → 100%
- 3Q1 11:28HOUD.Jones sacked at IND 39 for -8 yards (W.Anderson). FUMBLES (W.Anderson), touched at IND 44, RECOVERED by HOU-W.Anderson at IND 42. W.Anderson to…48% → 64%
- 4Q4 4:45HOUD.Jones sacked at HOU 45 for -6 yards (W.Anderson). FUMBLES (W.Anderson) [W.Anderson], RECOVERED by HOU-T.Togiai at HOU 46. Fumble Forced by D.Hunter.11% → 27%
- 5Q4 1:43INDD.Jones pass deep middle to L.Treadwell to HOU 45 for 20 yards (C.Bullock).turning point40% → 53%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Boutte led the Texans at +1.5 EPA (2 catches for 21). K.Allen led the Colts at +5.3 EPA (6 catches for 63).
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 16/27 | 167 | 1 | 3 | -3.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Montgomery63% | 11 | 52% | 33 | -5.8 | |
| W.Marks37% | 5 | 24% | 15 | 1 | +1.4 |
| X.Hutchinson54% | 2 | 10% | 4 | -0.5 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 2 | 10% | 10 | +2.2 | |
| J.Noel26% | 1 | 5% | 8 | +1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| X.Hutchinson54% | 6 | 24% | 3 | 51 | +0.4 | |
| F.Moreau57% | 4 | 16% | 2 | 7 | 1 | -0.6 |
| J.Wayne61% | 4 | 16% | 1 | 20 | +0.1 | |
| D.Schultz54% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 30 | -1.0 | |
| D.Montgomery63% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 15 | +1.5 | |
| K.Boutte69% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 21 | +1.5 | |
| J.Noel26% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 17 | +0.3 | |
| W.Marks37% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 6 | 0.0 | |
| L.Bond17% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 |
Defense W.Jr. 2.5 sacks, R.Blankenship 1 INT, S.Rankins 1 sack, D.Hunter 0.5 sacks · Kicking K.Fairbairn 1/1 FG (long 24)
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones100% | 24/36 | 235 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor85% | 23 | 74% | 68 | -4.1 | |
| S.McGowan15% | 4 | 13% | 14 | -0.2 | |
| D.Jones100% | 3 | 10% | 5 | +2.6 | |
| T.Warren94% | 1 | 3% | 2 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Downs68% | 11 | 31% | 5 | 77 | +1.5 | |
| T.Warren94% | 10 | 29% | 9 | 55 | +1.9 | |
| K.Allen73% | 9 | 26% | 6 | 63 | 1 | +5.3 |
| J.Taylor85% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 4 | -1.0 | |
| L.Treadwell79% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 20 | +1.5 | |
| M.Alie-Cox38% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 16 | +1.0 |
Defense D.Buckner 1.5 sacks, A.Adebawore 1.5 sacks · Kicking S.Shrader 4/4 FG (long 58)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Colts' run game is 5th in EPA per carry (+0.02). Texans allow -0.03 (25th).
Deep right is open
Texans are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.32 EPA per attempt. Colts send 6% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Colts take a sack on 8% of dropbacks (23rd). Texans get home on 8% (6th). League average is 7%.
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Colts create explosive plays on 9% of snaps (22nd). Texans give them up at 10% (22nd).
The Colts lead the series 34–15–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 3 | HOU 17 at IND 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | IND 30 at HOU 38 |
| 2025 · Wk 13 | HOU 20 at IND 16 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | IND 20 at HOU 23 |
| 2024 · Wk 1 | HOU 29 at IND 27 |
2026 records
| Texans | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–5 | 2–6 |
| Division | 2–1 | 1–2 |
| Conference | 2–3 | 1–5 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Home | 0–4 | 1–2 |
| Away | 2–1 | 1–4 |
| Last 5 | LLWWL | WLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 4 |
| Points a game | 23.6 – 24.3 | 20.1 – 27.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Texans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | IND off | Favors IND · Favors HOU | HOU def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#30 | +0.03#22 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#21 | 41%#8 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#31 | 5.4#18 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#22 | 10%#22 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.22#30 | +0.07#20 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#23 | 8%#6 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | -0.03#25 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#15 | 3.8#12 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#18 | 42%#19 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#13 | 68%#24 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#24 | 196#32 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#25 | 46#10 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.4#9 | 6.3#5 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#22 | 21#6 | 32 | |
Colts: EPA per throw
Texans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.