DOWN X DOWN › week 6 › Bears at Falcons
Updated Nov 3, 5:29 AM ET
2026
2026this season2025final

Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

CHIvsATL

Bears offensevsFalcons defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Bears, 8 for Falcons. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

CHI offenseATL offense
How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · CHI 31 · ATL 23

The Bears won 31–23 and were favored the whole way, never below 57%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 1:52, 11 points for the Bears.

At kickoffCHI 57%CHI by 1.5 on the line
CHI low point57%Q1 15:00 · tied 0⁠–⁠0
Swings past 50%0times the favorite changed
Biggest swing11 ptsCHI · Q2 1:52
ATL wins50%CHI wins
Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 1:52CHIT.Taylor punts 50 yards to ATL 10 Z.Branch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-J.Blackwell at ATL 10.78% → 89%+11
  2. 2Q2 5:49ATLM.Penix pass short left to J.Dotson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.14% → 22%+9
  3. 3Q1 11:24CHIC.Williams pass short right to R.Odunze to ATL 40 for 2 yards. Lateral to R.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 28 for 12 yards (H.Perkins).57% → 66%+8
  4. 4Q1 5:15CHIC.Williams pass deep middle to R.Odunze to ATL 43 for 23 yards (M.Hughes).73% → 80%+7
  5. 5Q1 8:25CHIC.Williams pass short right to C.Loveland for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.66% → 72%+6

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 6

R.Odunze led the Bears at +6.6 EPA (3 catches for 39). J.Dotson led the Falcons at +6.6 EPA (3 catches for 87).

CHI Bears

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
C.Williams100%30/3630514+10.6
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
D.Swift58%1648%442-2.1
R.Johnson40%1339%511-3.2
C.Williams100%412%3-7.8
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
L.III39%824%895+3.1
C.Loveland88%721%6651+4.4
D.Swift58%515%426+0.6
R.Odunze96%412%339+6.6
Z.Thomas13%39%325+1.8
K.Raymond47%26%218+0.2
C.Kmet74%26%23-0.3
R.Johnson40%26%234+2.4

Defense K.Gordon 3 sacks, D.Hardy 1 sack, D.Thieneman 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 1/2 FG (long 50)

ATL Falcons

PassingC/AYdsTDINTSkEPA
M.Jr.100%19/3322535-9.8
RushingCarShareYdsTDEPA
B.Robinson78%975%61-0.5
B.Robinson18%217%1-2.3
M.Jr.100%18%1-0.7
ReceivingTgtShareRecYdsTDEPA
D.London100%1030%462-2.3
K.Pitts78%721%5602+6.2
J.Dotson85%515%3871+6.6
O.Zaccheaus55%412%00-5.3
B.Robinson18%26%29-0.4
B.Robinson78%26%2-8-2.7
Z.Branch35%26%29-1.7
A.Hooper13%13%16+0.1

Defense Z.Smith 1 sack, L.London 1 sack, G.Sr. 1 sack, B.Dorlus 1 sack

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads
01
Biggest edge

Ground game edge

Bears average 4.3 yards per carry (11th). Falcons allow 4.6 (26th).

02
Opportunity

Deep left is open

Falcons are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.17 EPA per attempt. Bears send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

03
Watch out

Tight ends go quiet

Falcons give up 55 yards a game to tight ends (18th), against a league average of 55. Bears' tight ends produce 54 (18th).

04
Wash

Yards per play

Call this one even. Bears gain 5.5 yards per play (15th). Falcons give up 5.3 (13th), with the league at 5.4.

The series · Bears and Falcons since 1999, and this season's records12 meetings

The Bears lead the series 8–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.

Bears at home3–1the Bears' record
In Atlanta5–3the Bears' record
Most pointsBears 37 · Falcons 272023 · 2022
Biggest winBears by 28 · Falcons by 72001 · 2009

The last 5

2026 · Wk 6CHI 31 at ATL 23
2023 · Wk 17ATL 17 at CHI 37
2022 · Wk 11CHI 24 at ATL 27
2020 · Wk 3CHI 30 at ATL 26
2017 · Wk 1ATL 23 at CHI 17

2026 records

BearsFalcons
Overall6–23–5
Division0–21–2
Conference4–23–3
Other conference2–00–2
Home3–11–3
Away3–12–2
Last 5WLWWWWLLWL
StreakWon 3Lost 1
Points a game26.8 – 20.021.4 – 23.6

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · CHI offense against ATL defense
StatCHI CHI offFavors CHI · Favors ATLATL ATL def allowsNFL avg
Overall
EPA per play
+0.06#8
-0.04#11+0.00
Success rate
47%#8
44%#1844%
Yards per play
5.5#15
5.3#135.4
Explosive play rate
10%#10
9%#139%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback
+0.11#12
+0.00#15+0.03
Sack rate
6%#17
6%#207%
Running
Run EPA per carry
-0.02#11
-0.08#15-0.08
Yards per carry
4.3#11
4.6#264.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion
44%#7
42%#1841%
Red zone TD rate
59%#18
63%#1861%
Targets by position
WR yards per game
166#8
150#20147
TE yards per game
54#18
55#1855
TE targets per game
8.8#6
7.6#167.6
RB receiving yards per game
34#11
33#1732
Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Bears: EPA per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+1.015% of throws
+0.215% of throws
-0.088% of throws
Short
+0.0924% of throws
+0.4024% of throws
+0.1434% of throws

Falcons: EPA allowed per throw

Left
Middle
Right
Deep
+0.1727 throws
+1.598 throws
-0.0521 throws
Short
+0.1293 throws
-0.1533 throws
+0.06106 throws

Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.