2026
Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
vs
Falcons offensevsBears defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Falcons, 7 for Bears. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Bears won 31–23 and were favored the whole way, never below 57%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 1:52, 11 points for the Bears.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 1:52CHIT.Taylor punts 50 yards to ATL 10 Z.Branch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-J.Blackwell at ATL 10.78% → 89%
- 2Q2 5:49ATLM.Penix pass short left to J.Dotson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.14% → 22%
- 3Q1 11:24CHIC.Williams pass short right to R.Odunze to ATL 40 for 2 yards. Lateral to R.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 28 for 12 yards (H.Perkins).57% → 66%
- 4Q1 5:15CHIC.Williams pass deep middle to R.Odunze to ATL 43 for 23 yards (M.Hughes).73% → 80%
- 5Q1 8:25CHIC.Williams pass short right to C.Loveland for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.66% → 72%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
R.Odunze led the Bears at +6.6 EPA (3 catches for 39). J.Dotson led the Falcons at +6.6 EPA (3 catches for 87).
Bears
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Williams100% | 30/36 | 305 | 1 | 4 | +10.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Swift58% | 16 | 48% | 44 | 2 | -2.1 |
| R.Johnson40% | 13 | 39% | 51 | 1 | -3.2 |
| C.Williams100% | 4 | 12% | 3 | -7.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L.III39% | 8 | 24% | 8 | 95 | +3.1 | |
| C.Loveland88% | 7 | 21% | 6 | 65 | 1 | +4.4 |
| D.Swift58% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 26 | +0.6 | |
| R.Odunze96% | 4 | 12% | 3 | 39 | +6.6 | |
| Z.Thomas13% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 25 | +1.8 | |
| K.Raymond47% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 18 | +0.2 | |
| C.Kmet74% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 3 | -0.3 | |
| R.Johnson40% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 34 | +2.4 |
Defense K.Gordon 3 sacks, D.Hardy 1 sack, D.Thieneman 1 sack · Kicking C.Santos 1/2 FG (long 50)
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.100% | 19/33 | 225 | 3 | 5 | -9.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson78% | 9 | 75% | 61 | -0.5 | |
| B.Robinson18% | 2 | 17% | 1 | -2.3 | |
| M.Jr.100% | 1 | 8% | 1 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.London100% | 10 | 30% | 4 | 62 | -2.3 | |
| K.Pitts78% | 7 | 21% | 5 | 60 | 2 | +6.2 |
| J.Dotson85% | 5 | 15% | 3 | 87 | 1 | +6.6 |
| O.Zaccheaus55% | 4 | 12% | 0 | 0 | -5.3 | |
| B.Robinson18% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 9 | -0.4 | |
| B.Robinson78% | 2 | 6% | 2 | -8 | -2.7 | |
| Z.Branch35% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 9 | -1.7 | |
| A.Hooper13% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.1 |
Defense Z.Smith 1 sack, L.London 1 sack, G.Sr. 1 sack, B.Dorlus 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Falcons average 4.7 yards per carry (5th). Bears allow 4.2 (19th).
Deep left is open
Bears are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Third downs favor Bears
Falcons convert 35% of third downs (29th). Bears allow 26% (1st).
Success rate
Call this one even. Falcons succeed on 43% of plays (15th) against a defense that allows 41% (7th).
The Bears lead the series 8–4 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | CHI 31 at ATL 23 |
| 2023 · Wk 17 | ATL 17 at CHI 37 |
| 2022 · Wk 11 | CHI 24 at ATL 27 |
| 2020 · Wk 3 | CHI 30 at ATL 26 |
| 2017 · Wk 1 | ATL 23 at CHI 17 |
2026 records
| Bears | Falcons | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 3–5 |
| Division | 0–2 | 1–2 |
| Conference | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 0–2 |
| Home | 3–1 | 1–3 |
| Away | 2–1 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WWLWW | WLLWL |
| Streak | Won 2 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 25.7 – 20.4 | 21.4 – 23.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bears' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ATL off | Favors ATL · Favors CHI | CHI def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.10#29 | -0.01#15 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 43%#15 | 41%#7 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#13 | 6.3#32 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#17 | 11%#26 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.18#29 | +0.01#15 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#18 | 9%#2 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.02#9 | -0.08#15 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.7#5 | 4.2#19 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#29 | 26%#1 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#14 | 69%#25 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#21 | 149#19 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 37#26 | 57#21 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.5#25 | 6.6#7 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#19 | 35#21 | 32 | |
Falcons: EPA per throw
Bears: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.