2026
Week 6 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Levi's Stadium
vs
Commanders offensevs49ers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Commanders, 7 for 49ers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 23–17 and were favored the whole way, never below 73%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 2:00, 16 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:00SFJ.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to T.Burks (M.Mustapha).82% → 98%
- 2Q4 3:01WASJ.Daniels sacked at SF 40 for -11 yards (sack split by R.Height and J.Dugger). PENALTY on SF-A.Davis, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at SF 29…12% → 25%
- 3Q4 1:00WASC.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 31, fair catch by L.McCaffrey. PENALTY on SF-S.Neal, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.2% → 10%
- 4Q4 5:03WASJ.Daniels pass deep left to T.Burks to SF 31 for 30 yards (A.Davis).14% → 22%
- 5Q4 0:21SFJ.Daniels pass incomplete short right [R.Height]. PENALTY on WAS-J.Daniels, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at SF 28. 10-second runoff.88% → 95%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Williams led the Commanders at +4.3 EPA (3 catches for 50). B.Purdy led the 49ers at +11.3 EPA (21 of 29 for 264).
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels100% | 29/40 | 300 | 2 | 4 | +2.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.White69% | 7 | 41% | 27 | -0.3 | |
| J.McNichols18% | 5 | 29% | 13 | -1.6 | |
| J.Daniels100% | 4 | 24% | 10 | -1.2 | |
| A.Ekeler10% | 1 | 6% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Diggs61% | 7 | 20% | 6 | 44 | 1 | +4.3 |
| C.Okonkwo76% | 7 | 20% | 7 | 69 | +2.7 | |
| T.Burks55% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 66 | +0.1 | |
| R.White69% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 30 | 1 | +1.7 |
| A.Williams67% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 50 | +4.3 | |
| A.Ekeler10% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 4 | -0.8 | |
| T.McLaurin10% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 27 | +1.9 | |
| D.Brown49% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.3 | |
| J.Bates37% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.3 | |
| L.McCaffrey12% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense S.Tuttle 1 sack, O.Oweh 1 sack · Kicking D.Stevens 1/1 FG (long 51)
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy100% | 21/29 | 264 | 1 | 2 | +3.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey85% | 16 | 55% | 64 | 2 | +5.4 |
| K.Black23% | 8 | 28% | 34 | +1.0 | |
| B.Purdy100% | 5 | 17% | 28 | +7.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey85% | 10 | 34% | 9 | 53 | -6.0 | |
| G.Kittle89% | 8 | 28% | 5 | 69 | 1 | +0.8 |
| M.Evans40% | 5 | 17% | 3 | 94 | +5.7 | |
| K.Juszczyk56% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 10 | -0.2 | |
| B.Cooks52% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 13 | -0.9 | |
| J.Watkins76% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 22 | +2.2 | |
| K.Black23% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.2 |
Defense O.Odighizuwa 1 sack, M.Williams 1 sack, G.Halton 1 sack, K.White 0.5 sacks · Kicking E.Pineiro 1/1 FG (long 33)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Backs catch passes
49ers give up 49 yards a game to running backs (32nd), against a league average of 32. Commanders' running backs produce 24 (24th).
Short left is open
49ers are worst against short left throws, allowing +0.36 EPA per attempt. Commanders send 26% of their throws there.
Tight ends go quiet
49ers give up 44 yards a game to tight ends (7th), against a league average of 55. Commanders' tight ends produce 33 (27th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Commanders succeed on 41% of plays (24th) against a defense that allows 44% (20th).
The 49ers lead the series 9–5 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | WAS 17 at SF 23 |
| 2023 · Wk 17 | SF 27 at WAS 10 |
| 2022 · Wk 16 | WAS 20 at SF 37 |
| 2020 · Wk 14 | WAS 23 at SF 15 |
| 2019 · Wk 7 | SF 9 at WAS 0 |
2026 records
| Commanders | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–4–1 | 6–1 |
| Division | 1–2–1 | 3–0 |
| Conference | 2–3–1 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 0–1 | 2–0 |
| Home | 2–1–1 | 4–0 |
| Away | 0–3 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WLTLW | WWWWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 22.7 – 26.0 | 28.1 – 19.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | WAS off | Favors WAS · Favors SF | SF def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.01#18 | -0.05#8 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 41%#24 | 44%#20 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.3#21 | 4.8#4 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#14 | 4%#1 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.01#20 | +0.04#18 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#18 | 6%#22 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.12#21 | -0.18#2 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#18 | 3.6#7 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 32%#31 | 38%#11 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 55%#21 | 48%#7 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 156#13 | 132#11 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 33#27 | 44#7 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#28 | 7.9#19 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 24#24 | 49#32 | 32 | |
Commanders: EPA per throw
49ers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.