2026
Week 6 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Levi's Stadium
vs
49ers offensevsCommanders defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for 49ers, 7 for Commanders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The 49ers won 23–17 and were favored the whole way, never below 73%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 2:00, 16 points for the 49ers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:00SFJ.Daniels pass incomplete deep right to T.Burks (M.Mustapha).82% → 98%
- 2Q4 3:01WASJ.Daniels sacked at SF 40 for -11 yards (sack split by R.Height and J.Dugger). PENALTY on SF-A.Davis, Illegal Contact, 5 yards, enforced at SF 29…12% → 25%
- 3Q4 1:00WASC.Waitman punts 49 yards to WAS 31, fair catch by L.McCaffrey. PENALTY on SF-S.Neal, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 31.2% → 10%
- 4Q4 5:03WASJ.Daniels pass deep left to T.Burks to SF 31 for 30 yards (A.Davis).14% → 22%
- 5Q4 0:21SFJ.Daniels pass incomplete short right [R.Height]. PENALTY on WAS-J.Daniels, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at SF 28. 10-second runoff.88% → 95%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Williams led the Commanders at +4.3 EPA (3 catches for 50). B.Purdy led the 49ers at +11.3 EPA (21 of 29 for 264).
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels100% | 29/40 | 300 | 2 | 4 | +2.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.White69% | 7 | 41% | 27 | -0.3 | |
| J.McNichols18% | 5 | 29% | 13 | -1.6 | |
| J.Daniels100% | 4 | 24% | 10 | -1.2 | |
| A.Ekeler10% | 1 | 6% | 3 | -0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Diggs61% | 7 | 20% | 6 | 44 | 1 | +4.3 |
| C.Okonkwo76% | 7 | 20% | 7 | 69 | +2.7 | |
| T.Burks55% | 6 | 17% | 4 | 66 | +0.1 | |
| R.White69% | 5 | 14% | 4 | 30 | 1 | +1.7 |
| A.Williams67% | 4 | 11% | 3 | 50 | +4.3 | |
| A.Ekeler10% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 4 | -0.8 | |
| T.McLaurin10% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 27 | +1.9 | |
| D.Brown49% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.3 | |
| J.Bates37% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 4 | -0.3 | |
| L.McCaffrey12% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 |
Defense S.Tuttle 1 sack, O.Oweh 1 sack · Kicking D.Stevens 1/1 FG (long 51)
49ers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Purdy100% | 21/29 | 264 | 1 | 2 | +3.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey85% | 16 | 55% | 64 | 2 | +5.4 |
| K.Black23% | 8 | 28% | 34 | +1.0 | |
| B.Purdy100% | 5 | 17% | 28 | +7.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.McCaffrey85% | 10 | 34% | 9 | 53 | -6.0 | |
| G.Kittle89% | 8 | 28% | 5 | 69 | 1 | +0.8 |
| M.Evans40% | 5 | 17% | 3 | 94 | +5.7 | |
| K.Juszczyk56% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 10 | -0.2 | |
| B.Cooks52% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 13 | -0.9 | |
| J.Watkins76% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 22 | +2.2 | |
| K.Black23% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 3 | -0.2 |
Defense O.Odighizuwa 1 sack, M.Williams 1 sack, G.Halton 1 sack, K.White 0.5 sacks · Kicking E.Pineiro 1/1 FG (long 33)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
49ers score a touchdown on 87% of red zone trips (1st). Commanders allow 79% (29th).
Deep right is open
Commanders are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.19 EPA per attempt. 49ers send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
49ers average 4.5 yards per carry (9th). Commanders allow 3.5 (5th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. 49ers create explosive plays on 13% of snaps (2nd). Commanders give them up at 8% (8th).
The 49ers lead the series 9–5 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | WAS 17 at SF 23 |
| 2023 · Wk 17 | SF 27 at WAS 10 |
| 2022 · Wk 16 | WAS 20 at SF 37 |
| 2020 · Wk 14 | WAS 23 at SF 15 |
| 2019 · Wk 7 | SF 9 at WAS 0 |
2026 records
| Commanders | 49ers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–4–1 | 6–1 |
| Division | 1–2–1 | 3–0 |
| Conference | 2–3–1 | 4–1 |
| Other conference | 0–1 | 2–0 |
| Home | 2–1–1 | 4–0 |
| Away | 0–3 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WLTLW | WWWWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 22.7 – 26.0 | 28.1 – 19.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | SF off | Favors SF · Favors WAS | WAS def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.18#2 | +0.03#21 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 53%#1 | 46%#27 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.5#1 | 5.4#17 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 13%#2 | 8%#8 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.24#3 | +0.02#17 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 3%#1 | 6%#19 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#4 | -0.08#16 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.5#9 | 3.5#5 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 50%#2 | 44%#26 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 87%#1 | 79%#29 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 135#20 | 149#18 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 65#7 | 75#30 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.3#18 | 8.0#22 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 49#4 | 36#22 | 32 | |
49ers: EPA per throw
Commanders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.