2026
Week 6 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · Lambeau Field
vs
Cowboys offensevsPackers defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Cowboys, 8 for Packers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Packers won 23–13; their low point was 38% at Q1 13:13. The Cowboys had been 57% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 7:47: J.Love pass deep left to M.Golden pushed ob at DAL 9 for 37 yards (S.Revel). PENALTY on GB-M.Golden, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 9 (49% → 57%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 2:00, 14 points for the Packers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 2:00GBD.Prescott pass short left intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by B.Cisse at GB 18. B.Cisse ran ob at GB 23 for 5 yards (G.Pickens).65% → 78%
- 2Q1 1:53DALJ.Love pass short left intended for M.Golden INTERCEPTED by D.Winters at GB 42. D.Winters for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed…32% → 44%
- 3Q2 14:23GBD.Prescott pass short middle intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by E.Williams at GB 3. E.Williams to GB 20 for 17 yards (J.Ferguson).56% → 66%
- 4Q2 11:54GBJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson pushed ob at DAL 43 for 28 yards (C.Downs; A.Speed) [J.Barham].64% → 73%
- 5Q1 8:58GBJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson to DAL 46 for 27 yards.43% → 51%
- ★Q1 7:47GBJ.Love pass deep left to M.Golden pushed ob at DAL 9 for 37 yards (S.Revel). PENALTY on GB-M.Golden, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 9.turning point49% → 57%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
G.Pickens led the Cowboys at +4.0 EPA (6 catches for 73). J.Love led the Packers at +9.7 EPA (23 of 41 for 276).
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 34/54 | 258 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -8.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams73% | 11 | 73% | 41 | 1 | +2.4 |
| D.Prescott100% | 2 | 13% | 7 | -2.0 | |
| T.Goodson14% | 2 | 13% | 0 | -1.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Lamb88% | 18 | 33% | 9 | 70 | -14.3 | |
| G.Pickens88% | 11 | 20% | 6 | 73 | +4.0 | |
| R.Flournoy87% | 9 | 17% | 7 | 40 | 1 | +3.6 |
| B.Spann-Ford46% | 5 | 9% | 4 | 35 | +1.9 | |
| T.Goodson14% | 3 | 6% | 1 | 9 | -0.6 | |
| J.Ferguson54% | 3 | 6% | 2 | 13 | -0.5 | |
| H.Luepke14% | 3 | 6% | 3 | 9 | -0.4 | |
| J.Williams73% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 9 | -0.9 |
Defense D.Winters 1 INT, K.Clark 1 sack, Q.Williams 1 sack, E.Garcia 1 sack
Packers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Love100% | 23/41 | 276 | 1 | 1 | 3 | +6.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P.Strong55% | 11 | 42% | 28 | -2.0 | |
| M.Lloyd40% | 8 | 31% | 10 | -4.4 | |
| J.Love100% | 4 | 15% | 12 | 1 | +3.6 |
| S.Williams53% | 2 | 8% | 9 | -0.1 | |
| K.Johnson5% | 1 | 4% | -2 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Golden84% | 13 | 33% | 6 | 104 | 1 | +1.5 |
| C.Watson88% | 8 | 20% | 3 | 64 | +3.9 | |
| T.Kraft77% | 8 | 20% | 5 | 37 | +0.9 | |
| P.Strong55% | 6 | 15% | 5 | 39 | +3.9 | |
| S.Williams53% | 4 | 10% | 4 | 32 | +2.3 | |
| M.Lloyd40% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 |
Defense E.Williams 1 INT, B.Cisse 1 INT, L.Ness 1 sack · Kicking T.Smack 3/3 FG (long 44)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Cowboys
Cowboys convert 50% of third downs (3rd). Packers allow 44% (23rd).
Deep left is open
Packers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.61 EPA per attempt. Cowboys send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Packers give up 35 yards a game to tight ends (3rd), against a league average of 55. Cowboys' tight ends produce 32 (28th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Cowboys average +0.09 EPA per play (7th). Packers allow -0.07 (7th). League average is +0.00.
The Packers lead the series 12–4–1 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | DAL 13 at GB 23 |
| 2025 · Wk 4 · OT | GB 40 at DAL 40 |
| 2023 · Wk 19 · playoffs | GB 48 at DAL 32 |
| 2022 · Wk 10 · OT | DAL 28 at GB 31 |
| 2019 · Wk 5 | GB 34 at DAL 24 |
2026 records
| Cowboys | Packers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 5–3 |
| Division | 2–1 | 1–2 |
| Conference | 2–4 | 4–3 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 1–0 |
| Home | 1–3 | 3–1 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WLLWL | WWWLW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 1 |
| Points a game | 27.4 – 26.6 | 21.4 – 20.5 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cowboys' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DAL off | Favors DAL · Favors GB | GB def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#7 | -0.07#7 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 47%#9 | 44%#15 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#20 | 4.8#3 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#29 | 6%#3 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.15#7 | -0.06#5 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#2 | 7%#13 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.02#10 | -0.10#11 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#24 | 3.9#14 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 50%#3 | 44%#23 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#10 | 60%#13 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 207#2 | 152#22 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 32#28 | 35#3 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#26 | 6.1#4 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 17#30 | 34#19 | 32 | |
Cowboys: EPA per throw
Packers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.