DOWN X DOWN › week 6 › Cowboys at Packers

Updated Nov 3, 9:16 AM ET

2026

Week 6 · Sunday 8:20 PM ET · Lambeau Field

Packers offensevsCowboys defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Packers, 8 for Cowboys. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

DAL offense GB offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · DAL 13 · GB 23

The Packers won 23–13; their low point was 38% at Q1 13:13. The Cowboys had been 57% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 7:47: J.Love pass deep left to M.Golden pushed ob at DAL 9 for 37 yards (S.Revel). PENALTY on GB-M.Golden, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 9 (49% → 57%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 2:00, 14 points for the Packers.

At kickoffDAL 57%DAL by 1.5 on the line

GB low point38%Q1 13:13 · tied 0⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%3times the favorite changed

Biggest swing14 ptsGB · Q2 2:00

GB wins50%DAL wins

12345Turning pointGB low 38%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q2 2:00DALD.Prescott pass short left intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by B.Cisse at GB 18. B.Cisse ran ob at GB 23 for 5 yards (G.Pickens).65% → 78%+14 GB
2Q1 1:53GBJ.Love pass short left intended for M.Golden INTERCEPTED by D.Winters at GB 42. D.Winters for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed…32% → 44%+12 DAL
3Q2 14:23DALD.Prescott pass short middle intended for C.Lamb INTERCEPTED by E.Williams at GB 3. E.Williams to GB 20 for 17 yards (J.Ferguson).56% → 66%+11 GB
4Q2 11:54GBJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson pushed ob at DAL 43 for 28 yards (C.Downs; A.Speed) [J.Barham].64% → 73%+9 GB
5Q1 8:58GBJ.Love pass deep middle to C.Watson to DAL 46 for 27 yards.43% → 51%+9 GB
★Q1 7:47GBJ.Love pass deep left to M.Golden pushed ob at DAL 9 for 37 yards (S.Revel). PENALTY on GB-M.Golden, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 9.turning point49% → 57%+8 GB

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 6

G.Pickens led the Cowboys at +4.0 EPA (6 catches for 73). J.Love led the Packers at +9.7 EPA (23 of 41 for 276).

Cowboys

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
D.Prescott100%	34/54	258	1	2	1	-8.4

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
J.Williams73%	11	73%	41	1	+2.4
D.Prescott100%	2	13%	7		-2.0
T.Goodson14%	2	13%	0		-1.4

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
C.Lamb88%	18	33%	9	70		-14.3
G.Pickens88%	11	20%	6	73		+4.0
R.Flournoy87%	9	17%	7	40	1	+3.6
B.Spann-Ford46%	5	9%	4	35		+1.9
T.Goodson14%	3	6%	1	9		-0.6
J.Ferguson54%	3	6%	2	13		-0.5
H.Luepke14%	3	6%	3	9		-0.4
J.Williams73%	2	4%	2	9		-0.9

Defense D.Winters 1 INT, K.Clark 1 sack, Q.Williams 1 sack, E.Garcia 1 sack · Kicking B.Aubrey 1/1 XP, 1 pt

Packers

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
J.Love100%	23/41	276	1	1	3	+6.1

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
P.Strong55%	11	42%	28		-2.0
M.Lloyd40%	8	31%	10		-4.4
J.Love100%	4	15%	12	1	+3.6
S.Williams53%	2	8%	9		-0.1
K.Johnson5%	1	4%	-2		-0.9

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
M.Golden84%	13	33%	6	104	1	+1.5
C.Watson88%	8	20%	3	64		+3.9
T.Kraft77%	8	20%	5	37		+0.9
P.Strong55%	6	15%	5	39		+3.9
S.Williams53%	4	10%	4	32		+2.3
M.Lloyd40%	1	3%	0	0		-0.9

Defense E.Williams 1 INT, B.Cisse 1 INT, L.Ness 1 sack · Kicking T.Smack 3/3 FG, 2/2 XP, 11 pts

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Wideouts feast

Cowboys give up 164 yards a game to wide receivers (26th), against a league average of 147. Packers' wide receivers produce 193 (3rd).

Opportunity

Short middle is open

Cowboys are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.59 EPA per attempt. Packers send 20% of their throws there.

Watch out

Checkdowns go nowhere

Cowboys give up 27 yards a game to running backs (10th), against a league average of 32. Packers' running backs produce 28 (20th).

Wash

Success rate

Call this one even. Packers succeed on 40% of plays (27th) against a defense that allows 46% (28th).

The series · Cowboys and Packers since 1999, and this season's records17 meetings

The Packers lead the series 12–4–1 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.

Cowboys at home2–5–1the Cowboys' record

In Green Bay2–7the Cowboys' record

Most pointsCowboys 40 · Packers 482025 · 2023

Biggest winCowboys by 14 · Packers by 381999 · 2010

Playoffs0–3the Cowboys' record

The last 5

2026 · Wk 6	DAL 13 at GB 23
2025 · Wk 4 · OT	GB 40 at DAL 40
2023 · Wk 19 · playoffs	GB 48 at DAL 32
2022 · Wk 10 · OT	DAL 28 at GB 31
2019 · Wk 5	GB 34 at DAL 24

2026 records

	Cowboys	Packers
Overall	3–5	5–3
Division	2–1	1–2
Conference	2–4	4–3
Other conference	1–1	1–0
Home	1–3	3–1
Away	2–2	2–2
Last 5	WLLWL	WWWLW
Streak	Lost 1	Won 1
Points a game	27.4 – 26.6	21.4 – 20.5

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cowboys' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · GB offense against DAL defense

Stat	GB off	DAL def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	+0.00#17	+0.13#31	+0.00
Success rate	40%#27	46%#28	44%
Yards per play	5.5#16	6.1#31	5.4
Explosive play rate	9%#19	11%#27	9%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	+0.12#11	+0.21#30	+0.03
Sack rate	4%#7	6%#25	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.24#32	-0.01#29	-0.08
Yards per carry	3.1#32	5.1#31	4.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion	39%#23	53%#31	41%
Red zone TD rate	54%#23	70%#26	61%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	193#3	164#26	147
TE yards per game	59#15	53#17	55
TE targets per game	7.5#16	7.1#14	7.6
RB receiving yards per game	28#20	27#10	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Packers: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.357% of throws

+1.607% of throws

+0.098% of throws

Short

+0.0925% of throws

+0.2120% of throws

-0.0433% of throws

Cowboys: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.2622 throws

+1.248 throws

+0.4325 throws