2026
Week 6 · Thursday 8:15 PM ET · Empower Field at Mile High
vs
Broncos offensevsSeahawks defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Broncos, 8 for Seahawks. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Broncos won 17–14; their low point in regulation was 35% at Q1 11:31. The Seahawks had been 59% favorites at kickoff. Tied 14–14 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 4:57: W.Lutz 53 yard field goal is GOOD Penalty on SEA-E.Jones, Leverage, declined. The biggest single swing came at Q4 1:31, 37 points for the Broncos.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 1:31DENS.Darnold pass short left intended for T.Horton INTERCEPTED by K.Abrams-Draine at DEN 31. K.Abrams-Draine to DEN 31 for no gain (T.Horton).54% → 91%
- 2Q4 0:03SEAB.Nix kneels to DEN 34 for -1 yards.31% → 50%
- 3Q4 1:10SEAJ.Crawshaw punts 52 yards to SEA 15 R.Shaheed pushed ob at SEA 46 for 31 yards (J.Crawshaw).15% → 33%
- 4Q4 2:42SEAS.Darnold pass deep middle to J.Smith-Njigba to DEN 48 for 32 yards (B.Jones).25% → 42%
- 5Q4 4:15SEAB.Nix sacked at DEN 18 for -10 yards (N.Emmanwori).32% → 46%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
J.Smith-Njigba led the Seahawks at +11.5 EPA (12 catches for 134). R.Harvey led the Broncos at +4.4 EPA (6 carries for 25).
Seahawks
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Darnold100% | 27/51 | 278 | 2 | 5 | -6.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.Wilson32% | 14 | 54% | 52 | +0.5 | |
| G.Holani58% | 5 | 19% | 20 | 1 | +1.1 |
| V.Jr.11% | 4 | 15% | 20 | +0.3 | |
| S.Darnold100% | 2 | 8% | 19 | +1.8 | |
| R.Shaheed46% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -4.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Smith-Njigba92% | 16 | 35% | 12 | 134 | +11.5 | |
| C.Kupp85% | 10 | 22% | 5 | 50 | -0.1 | |
| R.Shaheed46% | 8 | 17% | 5 | 66 | +1.1 | |
| T.Horton46% | 5 | 11% | 1 | 13 | -3.0 | |
| A.Barner93% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 16 | -1.5 | |
| E.Saubert19% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| V.Jr.11% | 1 | 2% | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | |
| E.Wilson32% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 |
Defense E.Jones 1 sack, N.Emmanwori 1 sack · Kicking J.Myers 2/3 FG (long 55)
Broncos
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Nix100% | 17/27 | 107 | 2 | -6.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Dobbins52% | 17 | 61% | 41 | 1 | -4.8 |
| R.Harvey40% | 6 | 21% | 25 | 1 | +2.3 |
| B.Nix100% | 4 | 14% | 2 | -2.5 | |
| T.Badie7% | 1 | 4% | 6 | +2.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Waddle65% | 7 | 29% | 4 | 24 | -2.2 | |
| M.Jr.27% | 4 | 17% | 2 | 13 | -0.1 | |
| R.Harvey40% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 31 | +2.1 | |
| C.Sutton77% | 3 | 13% | 2 | 19 | +1.0 | |
| J.Dobbins52% | 3 | 13% | 3 | 5 | -1.5 | |
| E.Engram52% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 13 | +1.3 | |
| T.Franklin52% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 |
Defense J.McMillian 1 sack and 1 INT, K.Abrams-Draine 1 INT, J.Elliss 1 sack, Q.Robinson 1 sack · Kicking W.Lutz 1/1 FG (long 53)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Broncos score a touchdown on 68% of red zone trips (8th). Seahawks allow 88% (32nd).
Deep middle is open
Seahawks are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.88 EPA per attempt. Broncos send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Seahawks give up 38 yards a game to tight ends (3rd), against a league average of 55. Broncos' tight ends produce 28 (31st).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Broncos average -0.03 EPA per play (21st). Seahawks allow -0.09 (5th). League average is +0.00.
The Broncos lead the series 8–7 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 · OT | SEA 14 at DEN 17 |
| 2024 · Wk 1 | DEN 20 at SEA 26 |
| 2022 · Wk 1 | DEN 16 at SEA 17 |
| 2018 · Wk 1 | SEA 24 at DEN 27 |
| 2014 · Wk 3 · OT | DEN 20 at SEA 26 |
2026 records
| Seahawks | Broncos | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–4 | 6–2 |
| Division | 1–1 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 1–3 | 3–1 |
| Other conference | 3–1 | 3–1 |
| Home | 3–2 | 4–0 |
| Away | 1–2 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WLLWL | LWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 23.1 – 19.9 | 21.5 – 20.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Seahawks' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DEN off | Favors DEN · Favors SEA | SEA def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#21 | -0.09#5 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 38%#29 | 39%#2 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#26 | 4.2#1 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#27 | 5%#2 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.02#22 | -0.10#4 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#6 | 7%#15 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.06#15 | -0.11#10 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#25 | 3.4#3 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 31%#32 | 34%#7 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#8 | 88%#32 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 107#29 | 100#1 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 28#31 | 38#3 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 4.9#31 | 6.9#11 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 53#3 | 31#14 | 32 | |
Broncos: EPA per throw
Seahawks: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.