DOWN X DOWN › week 6 › Texans at Jaguars

Updated Nov 3, 9:16 AM ET

2026

Week 6 · Sunday 9:30 AM ET · Wembley Stadium

Jaguars offensevsTexans defense

Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Jaguars, 7 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

HOU offense JAX offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · HOU 34 · JAX 31

The Texans won 34–31; their low point was 36% at Q2 0:55. The Jaguars had been 57% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 0:20: C.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to N.Collins. PENALTY on JAX-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at JAX 18 - No Play (46% → 53%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 3:59, 22 points for the Jaguars.

At kickoffJAX 57%JAX by 2.5 on the line

HOU low point36%Q2 0:55 · down 14⁠–⁠10

Swings past 50%5times the favorite changed

Biggest swing22 ptsJAX · Q4 3:59

JAX wins50%HOU wins

12345Turning pointHOU low 36%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q4 3:59HOUB.C.Stroud pass short right intended for X.Hutchinson INTERCEPTED by T.Hunter at JAX -5. Touchback. Penalty on HOU-A.Ersery, Ineligible Downfield…12% → 34%+22 JAX
2Q4 0:03HOUK.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD82% → 100%+18 HOU
3Q4 1:04HOUC.Stroud pass short right to W.Marks pushed ob at JAX 41 for 19 yards (B.Combs).63% → 77%+14 HOU
4Q2 13:24JAXT.Lawrence pass short left intended for J.Meyers INTERCEPTED by C.Bullock at HOU -6. Touchback.57% → 70%+13 HOU
5Q2 0:48HOUC.Stroud pass deep middle to J.Noel to JAX 13 for 50 yards (Jar.Jones).39% → 50%+11 HOU
★Q2 0:20HOUC.Stroud pass incomplete deep right to N.Collins. PENALTY on JAX-T.Hunter, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at JAX 18 - No Play.turning point46% → 53%+7 HOU

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 6

C.Stroud led the Texans at +13.1 EPA (24 of 34 for 312). T.Lawrence led the Jaguars at +11.5 EPA (24 of 41 for 306).

Texans

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
C.Stroud100%	24/34	312	3	1		+13.9

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
W.Marks78%	15	60%	56		-2.4
J.Jordan22%	6	24%	43	1	+1.1
C.Stover21%	2	8%	5		+1.1
N.Collins73%	1	4%	5		+0.4
C.Stroud100%	1	4%	5		-0.8

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
D.Schultz40%	6	19%	4	33		-1.0
N.Collins73%	5	16%	3	74		+5.1
M.Jr.19%	4	13%	3	34		+2.4
J.Noel49%	4	13%	4	107	1	+9.3
K.Boutte41%	3	9%	2	16		+0.8
X.Hutchinson54%	3	9%	2	10		-5.8
W.Marks78%	3	9%	2	25		+1.4
F.Moreau62%	2	6%	2	7	2	+4.0
B.Jordan8%	1	3%	1	-1		-1.0
J.Jordan22%	1	3%	1	7		-0.1

Defense C.Bullock 1 INT · Kicking K.Fairbairn 2/2 FG, 4/4 XP, 10 pts

Jaguars

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
T.Lawrence100%	24/41	306	4	1		+11.4

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
B.Tuten58%	12	44%	39	-1.1
C.Jr.30%	11	41%	55	+3.0
T.Lawrence100%	3	11%	11	+0.1
L.Jr.11%	1	4%	1	-1.8

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
P.Washington73%	11	27%	4	64		-0.7
J.Meyers75%	10	24%	5	83		-2.0
B.Strange76%	7	17%	5	44		+0.6
T.Hunter13%	4	10%	4	59	1	+6.7
B.Tuten58%	4	10%	4	48	2	+7.4
B.Jr.21%	2	5%	0	0		-0.9
N.Boerkircher55%	2	5%	2	8	1	+1.0
C.Jr.30%	1	2%	0	0		-0.6

Defense T.Hunter 1 INT · Kicking C.Little 1/1 FG, 4/4 XP, 7 pts

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Run it at them

Jaguars' run game is 3rd in EPA per carry (+0.03). Texans allow -0.03 (25th).

Opportunity

Deep right is open

Texans are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.32 EPA per attempt. Jaguars send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Tight ends go quiet

Texans give up 6.3 targets a game to tight ends (5th), against a league average of 7.6. Jaguars' tight ends produce 6.7 (23rd).

Wash

Success rate

Call this one even. Jaguars succeed on 48% of plays (7th) against a defense that allows 41% (8th).

The series · Texans and Jaguars since 1999, and this season's records49 meetings

The Texans lead the series 33–16 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.

Texans at home17–7the Texans' record

In Jacksonville14–9the Texans' record

Most pointsTexans 43 · Jaguars 452012 · 2017

Biggest winTexans by 24 · Jaguars by 382015 · 2017

The last 5

2026 · Wk 6	HOU 34 at JAX 31
2025 · Wk 10	JAX 29 at HOU 36
2025 · Wk 3	HOU 10 at JAX 17
2024 · Wk 13	HOU 23 at JAX 20
2024 · Wk 4	JAX 20 at HOU 24

2026 records

	Texans	Jaguars
Overall	2–5	5–2
Division	2–1	1–1
Conference	2–3	4–2
Other conference	0–2	1–0
Home	0–4	4–1
Away	2–1	1–1
Last 5	LLWWL	WWWLW
Streak	Lost 1	Won 1
Points a game	23.6 – 24.3	28.0 – 15.9

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Texans' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · JAX offense against HOU defense

Stat	JAX off	HOU def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	+0.16#3	+0.03#22	+0.00
Success rate	48%#7	41%#8	44%
Yards per play	6.0#5	5.4#18	5.4
Explosive play rate	11%#4	10%#22	9%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	+0.28#1	+0.07#20	+0.03
Sack rate	6%#15	8%#6	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	+0.03#3	-0.03#25	-0.08
Yards per carry	4.4#10	3.8#12	4.1
Money downs
3rd down conversion	49%#4	42%#19	41%
Red zone TD rate	68%#7	68%#25	61%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	150#14	196#32	147
TE yards per game	62#11	46#10	55
TE targets per game	6.7#23	6.3#5	7.6
RB receiving yards per game	31#16	21#6	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Jaguars: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.8311% of throws

+1.233% of throws

+1.045% of throws

Short

+0.1934% of throws

+0.5419% of throws

+0.2930% of throws

Texans: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.5321 throws

+1.2711 throws

+1.3218 throws