2026
Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium
vs
Colts offensevsTitans defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Colts, 8 for Titans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Titans won 26–20 from as low as 3% (Q3 14:56, down 13–0). The Colts had been 75% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 5:26: C.Ward pass incomplete deep left to C.Tate (C.Taylor-Britt). ** Injury Update: IND-A.Haulcy has returned to the game. PENALTY on… (48% → 57%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 10:25, 29 points for the Titans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 10:25INDR.Sanchez punt is BLOCKED by J.Chestnut, RECOVERED by TEN-O.Oladejo at IND 14. O.Oladejo for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-R.Sanchez was injured during…45% → 74%
- 2Q4 13:04TENC.Ward pass short left to C.Tate for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN.20% → 37%
- 3Q4 1:07INDD.Jones pass incomplete deep middle to L.Treadwell (A.Hill).79% → 95%
- 4Q4 1:45INDD.Jones sacked at IND 31 for -7 yards (J.Johnson).67% → 79%
- 5Q4 2:12TENC.Ward pass incomplete deep right to C.Tate.36% → 47%
- ★Q4 5:26TENC.Ward pass incomplete deep left to C.Tate (C.Taylor-Britt). ** Injury Update: IND-A.Haulcy has returned to the game. PENALTY on…turning point48% → 57%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Tate led the Titans at +5.8 EPA (6 catches for 70). K.Allen led the Colts at +4.9 EPA (8 catches for 82).
Titans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Ward100% | 11/22 | 102 | 1 | 1 | -3.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Pollard76% | 19 | 83% | 76 | -1.8 | |
| C.Ward100% | 3 | 13% | 7 | -0.6 | |
| T.Spears24% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Robinson59% | 7 | 32% | 3 | 22 | -5.9 | |
| C.Tate74% | 7 | 32% | 6 | 70 | 1 | +5.8 |
| C.Ridley61% | 2 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -1.6 | |
| D.Bellinger48% | 2 | 9% | 0 | 0 | -1.2 | |
| E.Ayomanor61% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 3 | -1.7 | |
| T.Pollard76% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 | |
| T.Spears24% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 7 | +1.6 |
Defense J.Simmons 2 sacks, J.II 2 sacks, A.Hooker 1 INT, C.Flott 1 INT · Kicking J.Slye 4/4 FG, 2/2 XP, 14 pts
Colts
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Jones100% | 22/42 | 269 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -4.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Taylor78% | 21 | 70% | 94 | 1 | -4.8 |
| S.McGowan23% | 4 | 13% | 27 | +0.3 | |
| D.Jones100% | 3 | 10% | 30 | -0.7 | |
| J.Downs86% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +0.8 | |
| D.Burks18% | 1 | 3% | 7 | +0.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Allen71% | 11 | 29% | 8 | 82 | +4.9 | |
| J.Downs86% | 8 | 21% | 4 | 40 | +0.5 | |
| W.Mallory52% | 6 | 16% | 2 | 20 | -5.2 | |
| L.Treadwell93% | 5 | 13% | 2 | 21 | -2.9 | |
| J.Taylor78% | 4 | 11% | 2 | 57 | +3.2 | |
| D.Burks18% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 41 | +4.4 | |
| M.Alie-Cox37% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 1 | 1 | +0.7 |
| P.Brown5% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.9 |
Defense C.Bynum 1 INT · Kicking S.Shrader 2/2 FG, 2/2 XP, 8 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Run it at them
Colts' run game is 5th in EPA per carry (+0.02). Titans allow -0.07 (20th).
Deep left is open
Titans are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.65 EPA per attempt. Colts send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Titans give up 43 yards a game to tight ends (6th), against a league average of 55. Colts' tight ends produce 38 (25th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Colts average -0.12 EPA per play (30th). Titans allow +0.07 (25th). League average is +0.00.
The Colts lead the series 34–16 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | TEN 26 at IND 20 |
| 2025 · Wk 8 | TEN 14 at IND 38 |
| 2025 · Wk 3 | IND 41 at TEN 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 16 | TEN 30 at IND 38 |
| 2024 · Wk 6 | IND 20 at TEN 17 |
2026 records
| Titans | Colts | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 1–7 | 2–6 |
| Division | 1–1 | 1–2 |
| Conference | 1–5 | 1–5 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 1–1 |
| Home | 0–4 | 1–2 |
| Away | 1–3 | 1–4 |
| Last 5 | LLWLL | WLLLL |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Lost 4 |
| Points a game | 18.0 – 24.9 | 20.1 – 27.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Titans' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | IND off | Favors IND · Favors TEN | TEN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.12#30 | +0.07#25 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#21 | 47%#29 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.5#31 | 5.9#26 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#22 | 10%#25 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.22#30 | +0.18#28 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#23 | 7%#14 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.02#5 | -0.07#20 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.2#15 | 4.1#17 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 40%#17 | 44%#24 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#13 | 67%#22 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#24 | 195#30 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 38#25 | 43#6 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.4#9 | 7.0#13 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#22 | 35#21 | 32 | |
Colts: EPA per throw
Titans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.