2026
Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Reliant Stadium
vs
Giants offensevsTexans defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Giants, 7 for Texans. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Giants won 27–21 from as low as 18% (Q1 14:13, tied 0–0). The Texans had been 78% favorites at kickoff. Tied 21–21 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 7:33: D.Singletary up the middle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The biggest single swing came at Q4 9:03, 19 points for the Giants.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 9:03NYGC.Skattebo right guard for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.54% → 73%
- 2Q4 0:57HOUC.Stroud pass short right to X.Hutchinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.33% → 50%
- 3Q2 2:00HOUC.Stroud pass deep middle to T.Dell to NYG 30 for 43 yards (A.Phillips).44% → 55%
- 4Q4 0:16NYGJ.McCarthy pass short right to M.Nabers to NYG 32 for 2 yards (M.Stewart).39% → 50%
- 5Q1 4:05NYGJ.McCarthy pass short right to M.Fields to HOU 37 for 47 yards (K.Lassiter).32% → 42%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
M.Fields led the Giants at +8.1 EPA (4 catches for 83). T.Dell led the Texans at +2.5 EPA (1 catches for 43).
Giants
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McCarthy92% | 20/28 | 252 | 3 | +5.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Skattebo56% | 17 | 50% | 124 | 1 | +3.4 |
| T.Jr.15% | 6 | 18% | 15 | 1 | -0.6 |
| D.Singletary29% | 5 | 15% | 41 | 1 | +2.8 |
| J.Winston8% | 4 | 12% | 4 | 1 | +2.7 |
| D.Mooney55% | 1 | 3% | 3 | +2.8 | |
| J.McCarthy92% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Nabers73% | 9 | 33% | 7 | 111 | +4.7 | |
| M.Fields74% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 83 | +8.1 | |
| I.Likely86% | 4 | 15% | 2 | 12 | -0.4 | |
| D.Singletary29% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 14 | -0.9 | |
| D.Mooney55% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| T.Jr.15% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -0.4 | |
| T.II11% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 29 | +2.4 | |
| C.Skattebo56% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -3 | -1.3 |
Defense D.Alexander 0.5 sacks, A.Reese 0.5 sacks · Kicking D.Zvada 0/2 FG
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 17/28 | 153 | 2 | 1 | -0.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Marks89% | 19 | 76% | 66 | -5.2 | |
| X.Hutchinson56% | 2 | 8% | 12 | +0.7 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 2 | 8% | 4 | +2.8 | |
| T.Dell23% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.1 | |
| C.Stover36% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Schultz57% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 45 | +1.5 | |
| X.Hutchinson56% | 6 | 21% | 3 | 17 | 1 | -1.6 |
| N.Collins67% | 5 | 18% | 2 | 6 | -3.9 | |
| M.Jr.21% | 4 | 14% | 1 | 6 | 1 | +1.1 |
| K.Boutte31% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 25 | +1.7 | |
| J.Noel31% | 2 | 7% | 2 | -3 | -1.6 | |
| T.Dell23% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 43 | +2.7 | |
| C.Stover36% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -1 | +0.0 | |
| W.Marks89% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 15 | +1.0 |
Defense D.Hunter 1 sack, K.Lassiter 1 sack, M.Stewart 0.5 sacks, H.To'oTo'o 0.5 sacks · Kicking K.Fairbairn 2/2 FG (long 58)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Texans give up 196 yards a game to wide receivers (32nd), against a league average of 147. Giants' wide receivers produce 147 (16th).
Deep right is open
Texans are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.32 EPA per attempt. Giants send 9% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Giants take a sack on 8% of dropbacks (25th). Texans get home on 8% (6th). League average is 7%.
Yards per play
Call this one even. Giants gain 5.4 yards per play (18th). Texans give up 5.4 (18th), with the league at 5.4.
The Giants lead the series 6–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 6. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 · OT | NYG 27 at HOU 21 |
| 2022 · Wk 10 | HOU 16 at NYG 24 |
| 2018 · Wk 3 | NYG 27 at HOU 22 |
| 2014 · Wk 3 | HOU 17 at NYG 30 |
| 2010 · Wk 5 | NYG 34 at HOU 10 |
2026 records
| Giants | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–2–1 | 2–5 |
| Division | 1–0–1 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 2–2–1 | 2–3 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 0–2 |
| Home | 3–1 | 0–4 |
| Away | 1–1–1 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WWTLW | LLWWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 23.3 – 23.0 | 23.6 – 24.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Giants' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NYG off | Favors NYG · Favors HOU | HOU def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.01#16 | +0.03#22 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#20 | 41%#8 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#18 | 5.4#18 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#20 | 10%#22 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.05#17 | +0.07#20 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 8%#25 | 8%#6 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.08#17 | -0.03#25 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.0#17 | 3.8#12 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#12 | 42%#19 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 67%#11 | 68%#24 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 147#16 | 196#32 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 68#5 | 46#10 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 10.4#3 | 6.3#5 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 27#21 | 21#6 | 32 | |
Giants: EPA per throw
Texans: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.