2026
Week 7 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Reliant Stadium
vs
Texans offensevsGiants defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Texans, 7 for Giants. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Giants won 27–21 from as low as 18% (Q1 14:13, tied 0–0). The Texans had been 78% favorites at kickoff. Tied 21–21 after regulation, they won it in overtime at OT 7:33: D.Singletary up the middle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The biggest single swing came at Q4 9:03, 19 points for the Giants.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 9:03NYGC.Skattebo right guard for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.54% → 73%
- 2Q4 0:57HOUC.Stroud pass short right to X.Hutchinson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.33% → 50%
- 3Q2 2:00HOUC.Stroud pass deep middle to T.Dell to NYG 30 for 43 yards (A.Phillips).44% → 55%
- 4Q4 0:16NYGJ.McCarthy pass short right to M.Nabers to NYG 32 for 2 yards (M.Stewart).39% → 50%
- 5Q1 4:05NYGJ.McCarthy pass short right to M.Fields to HOU 37 for 47 yards (K.Lassiter).32% → 42%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again. The model does not hold together under the current overtime rules, so the chart covers regulation and overtime shows its scoring plays.
M.Fields led the Giants at +8.1 EPA (4 catches for 83). T.Dell led the Texans at +2.5 EPA (1 catches for 43).
Giants
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McCarthy92% | 20/28 | 252 | 3 | +5.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Skattebo56% | 17 | 50% | 124 | 1 | +3.4 |
| T.Jr.15% | 6 | 18% | 15 | 1 | -0.6 |
| D.Singletary29% | 5 | 15% | 41 | 1 | +2.8 |
| J.Winston8% | 4 | 12% | 4 | 1 | +2.7 |
| D.Mooney55% | 1 | 3% | 3 | +2.8 | |
| J.McCarthy92% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Nabers73% | 9 | 33% | 7 | 111 | +4.7 | |
| M.Fields74% | 5 | 19% | 4 | 83 | +8.1 | |
| I.Likely86% | 4 | 15% | 2 | 12 | -0.4 | |
| D.Singletary29% | 3 | 11% | 3 | 14 | -0.9 | |
| D.Mooney55% | 3 | 11% | 1 | 4 | -1.4 | |
| T.Jr.15% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 2 | -0.4 | |
| T.II11% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 29 | +2.4 | |
| C.Skattebo56% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -3 | -1.3 |
Defense D.Alexander 0.5 sacks, A.Reese 0.5 sacks · Kicking D.Zvada 0/2 FG (56 no good, 44 no good), 3/3 XP, 3 pts
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 17/28 | 153 | 2 | 1 | -0.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W.Marks89% | 19 | 76% | 66 | -5.2 | |
| X.Hutchinson56% | 2 | 8% | 12 | +0.7 | |
| C.Stroud100% | 2 | 8% | 4 | +2.8 | |
| T.Dell23% | 1 | 4% | 2 | -0.1 | |
| C.Stover36% | 1 | 4% | 0 | -1.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Schultz57% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 45 | +1.5 | |
| X.Hutchinson56% | 6 | 21% | 3 | 17 | 1 | -1.6 |
| N.Collins67% | 5 | 18% | 2 | 6 | -3.9 | |
| M.Jr.21% | 4 | 14% | 1 | 6 | 1 | +1.1 |
| K.Boutte31% | 2 | 7% | 1 | 25 | +1.7 | |
| J.Noel31% | 2 | 7% | 2 | -3 | -1.6 | |
| T.Dell23% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 43 | +2.7 | |
| C.Stover36% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -1 | +0.0 | |
| W.Marks89% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 15 | +1.0 |
Defense D.Hunter 1 sack, K.Lassiter 1 sack, M.Stewart 0.5 sacks, H.To'oTo'o 0.5 sacks · Kicking K.Fairbairn 2/2 FG, 1/1 XP, 7 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Clean pockets
Texans take a sack on 6% of dropbacks (11th). Giants get home on 4% (30th). League average is 7%.
Short middle is open
Giants are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.46 EPA per attempt. Texans send 23% of their throws there.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Giants give up 21 yards a game to running backs (5th), against a league average of 32. Texans' running backs produce 21 (26th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Texans average +0.02 EPA per play (13th). Giants allow +0.01 (16th). League average is +0.00.
The Giants lead the series 6–1 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). They have won the last 6. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 7 · OT | NYG 27 at HOU 21 |
| 2022 · Wk 10 | HOU 16 at NYG 24 |
| 2018 · Wk 3 | NYG 27 at HOU 22 |
| 2014 · Wk 3 | HOU 17 at NYG 30 |
| 2010 · Wk 5 | NYG 34 at HOU 10 |
2026 records
| Giants | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–2–1 | 2–5 |
| Division | 1–0–1 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 2–2–1 | 2–3 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 0–2 |
| Home | 3–1 | 0–4 |
| Away | 1–1–1 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WWTLW | LLWWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 23.3 – 23.0 | 23.6 – 24.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Giants' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | HOU off | Favors HOU · Favors NYG | NYG def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.02#13 | +0.01#16 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#17 | 43%#12 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#10 | 5.4#15 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#12 | 10%#18 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.11#13 | -0.01#14 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#11 | 4%#30 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.15#25 | -0.07#21 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.4#29 | 4.5#24 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#24 | 40%#13 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#20 | 83%#31 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 180#6 | 127#7 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 65#8 | 45#8 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.0#5 | 8.1#24 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#26 | 21#5 | 32 | |
Texans: EPA per throw
Giants: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.