2026
Week 8 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium
vs
Dolphins offensevsPatriots defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Dolphins, 8 for Patriots. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 24–19; their low point was 28% at Q3 12:59. The game turned for good at Q3 9:30: D.Maye pass incomplete deep right to K.Williams (M.Taaffe). New England challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. D.Maye… (39% → 53%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 9:30NED.Maye pass incomplete deep right to K.Williams (M.Taaffe). New England challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. D.Maye…turning point39% → 53%
- 2Q2 2:24MIAA.Borregales 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right30% → 44%
- 3Q1 5:59MIAD.Maye pass short left to E.Chism to NE 18 for 4 yards (J.Rodriguez; K.Louis). FUMBLES (J.Rodriguez), RECOVERED by MIA-J.Brents at NE 19.16% → 29%
- 4Q4 12:50NED.Maye pass deep right to D.Douglas for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.84% → 94%
- 5Q3 1:02NEC.D.Maye right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.69% → 78%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.Maye led the Patriots at +8.5 EPA (16 of 20 for 199). K.Jr. led the Dolphins at +6.0 EPA (3 catches for 46).
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 16/20 | 199 | 2 | 3 | +8.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson77% | 19 | 53% | 82 | +1.3 | |
| D.Maye100% | 8 | 22% | 5 | 1 | -0.2 |
| C.Kiner18% | 7 | 19% | 38 | -0.9 | |
| L.Larison8% | 2 | 6% | 6 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E.III88% | 5 | 26% | 5 | 37 | +0.1 | |
| E.Raridon92% | 4 | 21% | 1 | 5 | -2.8 | |
| H.Henry13% | 3 | 16% | 3 | 30 | +1.4 | |
| R.Stevenson77% | 3 | 16% | 3 | 8 | -0.3 | |
| D.Douglas65% | 3 | 16% | 3 | 76 | 1 | +8.0 |
| K.Williams83% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 43 | 1 | +3.7 |
Defense K.Byard 1 INT, C.Durden 1.5 sacks, G.Jacas 1.5 sacks, C.Elliss 0.5 sacks · Kicking A.Borregales 1/2 FG (long 34)
Dolphins
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Willis100% | 21/32 | 211 | 2 | 1 | 5 | +3.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O.II82% | 19 | 83% | 69 | -5.5 | |
| J.Wright12% | 2 | 9% | 5 | -1.1 | |
| M.Willis100% | 1 | 4% | 2 | +0.5 | |
| C.Bell69% | 1 | 4% | -2 | -0.9 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Dulcich69% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 43 | +0.4 | |
| M.Washington74% | 6 | 20% | 5 | 40 | 1 | +5.8 |
| C.Douglas86% | 6 | 20% | 4 | 43 | -0.2 | |
| C.Bell69% | 5 | 17% | 4 | 31 | -0.5 | |
| K.Jr.26% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 46 | 1 | +6.0 |
| J.Tolbert9% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 8 | +2.0 | |
| J.Wright12% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.0 | |
| O.II82% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.4 | |
| W.Kacmarek31% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -1.5 |
Defense C.Robinson 2 sacks, J.Uche 1 sack · Kicking Z.Gonzalez 2/3 FG (long 52)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Dolphins
Dolphins convert 44% of third downs (8th). Patriots allow 38% (10th).
Deep left is open
Patriots are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.96 EPA per attempt. Dolphins send 8% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Dolphins take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (31st). Patriots get home on 8% (5th). League average is 7%.
EPA per play
Call this one even. Dolphins average -0.05 EPA per play (24th). Patriots allow +0.01 (18th). League average is +0.00.
The Patriots lead the series 30–25 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 8 | NE 24 at MIA 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | MIA 10 at NE 38 |
| 2025 · Wk 2 | NE 33 at MIA 27 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 | NE 15 at MIA 34 |
| 2024 · Wk 5 | MIA 15 at NE 10 |
2026 records
| Patriots | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–3 | 1–6 |
| Division | 3–0 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 5–1 | 1–4 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 0–2 |
| Home | 3–0 | 0–3 |
| Away | 2–3 | 1–3 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LLLWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 23.0 – 20.3 | 16.7 – 25.9 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Patriots' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | MIA off | Favors MIA · Favors NE | NE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.05#24 | +0.01#18 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 40%#28 | 44%#16 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#22 | 5.3#12 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 11%#6 | 9%#16 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.09#25 | +0.08#22 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#31 | 8%#5 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.12#20 | -0.09#13 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.9#19 | 3.8#11 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 44%#8 | 38%#10 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 59%#17 | 57%#12 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 130#22 | 152#23 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 40#24 | 52#14 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.1#30 | 7.9#20 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 12#32 | 31#14 | 32 | |
Dolphins: EPA per throw
Patriots: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.