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2025

2025 season · final Every snap of the 2025 season, kept as it ended.Back to 2026 →

Week 2 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · MetLife Stadium

Jets offensevsBills defense

Season numbers through Week 22: 17 games for Jets, 19 for Bills. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.

BUF offense NYJ offense

How it played out · win probability, snap by snapFinal · BUF 30 · NYJ 10

The Bills won 30–10 and were favored the whole way, never below 71%. The biggest single swing came at Q1 7:24, 8 points for the Bills.

At kickoffBUF 73%BUF by 6 on the line

BUF low point71%Q1 14:55 · tied 0⁠–⁠0

Swings past 50%0times the favorite changed

Biggest swing8 ptsBUF · Q1 7:24

NYJ wins50%BUF wins

12345BUF low 71%

Q1Q2Q3Q4

The plays that swung it

1Q1 7:24NYJJ.Fields scrambles up the middle to NYJ 20 for 1 yard (J.Bosa; M.Milano). FUMBLES (J.Bosa), RECOVERED by BUF-A.Epenesa at NYJ 24.84% → 93%+8 BUF
2Q1 12:44BUFJ.Allen scrambles up the middle pushed ob at NYJ 39 for 40 yards (T.Adams). PENALTY on NYJ-M.Carter, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 39.76% → 81%+6 BUF
3Q1 8:58BUFJ.Allen pass incomplete short right to K.Shakir (M.Carter). PENALTY on NYJ-M.Clemons, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 30 - No Play.79% → 84%+5 BUF
4Q1 9:05BUFJ.Allen pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on BUF-J.Allen, Intentional Grounding, 12 yards, enforced at NYJ 18.16% → 21%+5 NYJ
5Q1 10:25BUFA.R.Davis right tackle to NYJ 21 for 4 yards (J.Johnson; F.Mauigoa).80% → 84%+4 BUF

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.

Box score · every offensive player who touched the ballWeek 2

J.Allen led the Bills at +6.1 EPA (14 of 25 for 148). T.Taylor led the Jets at +4.8 EPA (7 of 11 for 56).

Bills

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
J.Allen87%	14/25	148			1	-2.3
M.Trubisky13%	1/2	32				+2.5

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	TD	EPA
J.Cook47%	21	49%	132	2	+5.2
R.Davis27%	9	21%	24		-0.6
J.Allen87%	6	14%	59		+8.4
M.Trubisky13%	3	7%	-3		-3.3
T.Johnson25%	2	5%	6		-0.7
E.Moore40%	2	5%	6	1	+0.7

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	EPA
D.Kincaid48%	6	24%	4	37	-0.6
D.Knox55%	5	20%	2	19	-1.8
J.Palmer51%	3	12%	2	47	+3.3
K.Coleman51%	3	12%	3	26	+1.8
K.Shakir49%	2	8%	1	12	+0.5
T.Shavers33%	2	8%	0	0	-1.7
T.Johnson25%	1	4%	0	0	-0.5
E.Moore40%	1	4%	1	31	+3.5
J.Cook47%	1	4%	1	3	-0.3
J.Hawes47%	1	4%	1	5	+0.2

Defense D.Jones 1 sack, J.Bosa 1 sack, C.Bishop 1 sack, G.Rousseau 0.5 sacks · Kicking M.Prater 3/3 FG (long 52)

Jets

Passing	C/A	Yds	TD	INT	Sk	EPA
T.Taylor38%	7/11	56	1		2	+5.4
J.Fields62%	3/11	27			2	-9.5

Rushing	Car	Share	Yds	EPA
B.Hall64%	10	48%	29	-2.8
J.Fields62%	5	24%	49	-4.3
T.Taylor38%	3	14%	21	-0.6
B.Allen19%	2	10%	11	-0.7
A.Smith47%	1	5%	-10	-1.4

Receiving	Tgt	Share	Rec	Yds	TD	EPA
G.Wilson94%	8	38%	4	50		-0.9
B.Hall64%	3	14%	2	9		-1.4
I.Davis21%	3	14%	1	6		+1.0
A.Smith47%	2	10%	1	8		+1.6
M.Taylor72%	2	10%	1	5		-0.1
T.Johnson96%	1	5%	0	0		-0.7
J.Ruckert36%	1	5%	1	5	1	+4.3
B.Allen19%	1	5%	0	0		-1.3

Defense J.Briggs 1 sack · Kicking N.Folk 1/1 FG (long 51)

Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.

Keys to the game · from the season numbers, not this game alone4 reads

Biggest edge

Ground game edge

Jets average 4.3 yards per carry (15th). Bills allow 4.9 (30th).

Opportunity

Deep middle is open

Bills are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.74 EPA per attempt. Jets send 2% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.

Watch out

Tight ends go quiet

Bills give up 27 yards a game to tight ends (1st), against a league average of 53. Jets' tight ends produce 35 (31st).

Wash

Explosive play rate

Call this one even. Jets create explosive plays on 8% of snaps (28th). Bills give them up at 11% (27th).

The series · Bills and Jets since 1999, and this season's records54 meetings

The Bills lead the series 29–25 since 1999. They have won the last 5. Jan 4, 2026, at New Era Field: the Bills won 35–8. Mitchell Trubisky started at quarterback for the Bills and Brady Cook for the Jets; Sean McDermott and Aaron Glenn coached.

Bills at home16–10the Bills' record

In New York12–15the Bills' record

Most pointsBills 45 · Jets 482021 · 2012

Biggest winBills by 35 · Jets by 312014 · 2010

The last 5

2025 · Wk 18	NYJ 8 at BUF 35
2025 · Wk 2	BUF 30 at NYJ 10
2024 · Wk 17	NYJ 14 at BUF 40
2024 · Wk 6	BUF 23 at NYJ 20
2023 · Wk 11	NYJ 6 at BUF 32

2025 records

	Bills	Jets
Overall	12–5	3–14
Division	4–2	0–6
Conference	9–3	2–10
Other conference	3–2	1–4
Home	7–2	2–7
Away	5–3	1–7
Last 5	WWWLW	LLLLL
Streak	Won 1	Lost 5
Points a game	28.3 – 21.5	17.6 – 29.6

Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Bills' side. Records are this regular season.

Head to head · NYJ offense against BUF defense

Stat	NYJ off	BUF def allows	NFL avg
Overall
EPA per play	-0.13#29	-0.01#13	+0.01
Success rate	40%#29	43%#13	44%
Yards per play	4.5#29	5.4#16	5.4
Explosive play rate	8%#28	11%#27	10%
Passing
Pass EPA per dropback	-0.19#28	-0.09#9	+0.01
Sack rate	11%#30	6%#20	7%
Running
Run EPA per carry	-0.11#28	+0.04#29	-0.05
Yards per carry	4.3#15	4.9#30	4.3
Money downs
3rd down conversion	35%#27	43%#24	40%
Red zone TD rate	44%#31	59%#19	59%
Targets by position
WR yards per game	92#31	122#7	140
TE yards per game	35#31	27#1	53
TE targets per game	6.2#20	4.6#1	7.3
RB receiving yards per game	35#12	28#9	32

Where the ball goes · EPA per throwDeep is 15+ air yds

Jets: EPA per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

-0.087% of throws

-0.542% of throws

+0.036% of throws

Short

-0.1833% of throws

+0.1116% of throws

+0.0936% of throws

Bills: EPA allowed per throw

Left

Middle

Right

Deep

+0.6337 throws

+0.7418 throws

+0.1852 throws