2025
Week 4 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
vs
Patriots offensevsPanthers defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 21 games for Patriots, 18 for Panthers. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 42–13; their low point was 46% at Q1 7:33. The game turned for good at Q1 5:55: S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13 M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-C.Woods was injured during the play (50% → 68%).
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 5:55CARS.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13 M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-C.Woods was injured during the play.turning point50% → 68%
- 2Q1 12:19CARB.Young pass short left to M.Evans to NE 23 for 16 yards (C.Elliss).35% → 41%
- 3Q1 11:36CARB.Young pass short left to T.McMillan to NE 7 for 16 yards (C.Gonzalez).41% → 46%
- 4Q1 4:19CARR.Dowdle left end pushed ob at NE 40 for 10 yards (J.Gibbens). CAR-C.Zavala was injured during the play.33% → 38%
- 5Q1 3:05CARS.Martin punts 41 yards to end zone, Touchback. ** Injury Update: NE-C.Woods has returned to the game.68% → 72%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
A.Dalton led the Panthers at +9.9 EPA (5 of 6 for 58). D.Maye led the Patriots at +20.3 EPA (14 of 17 for 203).
Panthers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Young81% | 18/30 | 150 | 1 | 1 | -8.9 | |
| A.Dalton19% | 5/6 | 58 | 1 | +9.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Hubbard51% | 10 | 36% | 49 | +1.6 | |
| R.Dowdle39% | 9 | 32% | 32 | -2.7 | |
| T.Etienne16% | 7 | 25% | 33 | -3.1 | |
| D.Moore1% | 1 | 4% | 12 | +1.0 | |
| B.Young81% | 1 | 4% | 3 | +0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Tremble75% | 8 | 25% | 5 | 42 | 1 | +1.1 |
| T.McMillan94% | 8 | 25% | 4 | 62 | -0.6 | |
| B.Tremayne81% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 36 | +2.2 | |
| M.Evans54% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 23 | 1 | +4.4 |
| C.Hubbard51% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 20 | +0.6 | |
| H.Renfrow49% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 10 | +1.0 | |
| J.Mitchell25% | 2 | 6% | 2 | 17 | +1.4 | |
| R.Dowdle39% | 1 | 3% | 1 | -2 | -1.7 |
Defense T.Wharton 1 sack · Kicking R.Fitzgerald 0/1 FG
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye88% | 14/17 | 203 | 2 | 1 | +19.3 | |
| J.Dobbs12% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson57% | 9 | 31% | 38 | -2.4 | |
| T.Henderson31% | 7 | 24% | 32 | 1 | -0.1 |
| A.Gibson18% | 6 | 21% | 27 | 1 | +1.3 |
| J.Dobbs12% | 3 | 10% | -2 | 0.0 | |
| D.Maye88% | 3 | 10% | 11 | 1 | +1.0 |
| K.Williams29% | 1 | 3% | -2 | -0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Diggs63% | 7 | 41% | 6 | 101 | +9.9 | |
| K.Boutte69% | 3 | 18% | 1 | 18 | -1.2 | |
| H.Henry76% | 2 | 12% | 2 | 39 | 1 | +5.6 |
| T.Henderson31% | 2 | 12% | 2 | 14 | +2.7 | |
| A.Hooper65% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 24 | +1.7 | |
| M.Hollins49% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 4 | 1 | +2.5 |
| R.Stevenson57% | 1 | 6% | 1 | 3 | -1.2 |
Defense K.Chaisson 1 sack
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Throw it
Patriots gain +0.17 EPA per dropback (5th). Panthers allow +0.11 (24th).
Deep left is open
Panthers are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.57 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 10% of their throws there.
Tight ends go quiet
Panthers give up 6.7 targets a game to tight ends (11th), against a league average of 7.3. Patriots' tight ends produce 6.4 (19th).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Patriots create explosive plays on 12% of snaps (4th). Panthers give them up at 9% (10th).
The Patriots lead the series 5–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2001). They have won the last 2. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 4 | CAR 13 at NE 42 |
| 2021 · Wk 9 | NE 24 at CAR 6 |
| 2017 · Wk 4 | CAR 33 at NE 30 |
| 2013 · Wk 11 | NE 20 at CAR 24 |
| 2009 · Wk 14 | CAR 10 at NE 20 |
2025 records
| Panthers | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8–9 | 14–3 |
| Division | 3–3 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 6–6 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 2–3 | 5–0 |
| Home | 5–3 | 6–3 |
| Away | 3–6 | 8–0 |
| Last 5 | WLWLL | WLWWW |
| Streak | Lost 2 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 18.3 – 22.4 | 28.8 – 18.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Panthers' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors CAR | CAR def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#5 | +0.07#23 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#7 | 45%#19 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#3 | 5.6#20 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#4 | 9%#10 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#5 | +0.11#24 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 5%#27 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.10#27 | +0.01#27 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#16 | 4.4#21 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#13 | 47%#30 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#11 | 57%#14 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#7 | 130#13 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#14 | 61#25 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.4#19 | 6.7#11 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#10 | 29#13 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Panthers: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.