2025
Week 8 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium
vs
Patriots offensevsBrowns defense
Season numbers through Week 22: 21 games for Patriots, 17 for Browns. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Patriots won 32–13; their low point was 45% at Q2 13:03. The game turned for good at Q2 11:26: A.Szmyt 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left (50% → 58%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 13:12, 11 points for the Browns.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 13:12CLED.Maye pass short middle intended for S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by C.Schwesinger at NE 41. C.Schwesinger to NE 34 for 7 yards (S.Diggs).44% → 55%
- 2Q1 5:52CLEM.Corley left end pushed ob at NE 18 for 31 yards (M.Jones).29% → 38%
- 3Q2 11:26NEA.Szmyt 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Leftturning point50% → 58%
- 4Q2 1:16NED.Maye pass deep right to D.Douglas to CLE 32 for 44 yards (G.Delpit).60% → 68%
- 5Q2 8:25CLED.Maye sacked at CLE 14 for -7 yards (M.Garrett).34% → 41%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Corley led the Browns at +2.6 EPA (0 catches for 0). D.Maye led the Patriots at +5.5 EPA (18 of 24 for 282).
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Gabriel100% | 21/35 | 156 | 2 | 2 | 1 | -19.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q.Judkins33% | 9 | 56% | 19 | -2.6 | |
| D.Sampson46% | 3 | 19% | 0 | -0.9 | |
| M.Corley7% | 1 | 6% | 31 | +2.6 | |
| G.Larvadain52% | 1 | 6% | 3 | -0.8 | |
| H.Jr.74% | 1 | 6% | 2 | +2.3 | |
| D.Gabriel100% | 1 | 6% | 13 | +0.8 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| H.Jr.74% | 8 | 24% | 6 | 62 | 1 | -0.4 |
| D.Sampson46% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 29 | -0.2 | |
| D.Njoku59% | 5 | 15% | 4 | 37 | 1 | -3.1 |
| I.Bond54% | 4 | 12% | 0 | 0 | -6.0 | |
| J.Thrash44% | 3 | 9% | 2 | 31 | +1.3 | |
| Q.Judkins33% | 3 | 9% | 3 | -2 | -2.8 | |
| J.Jeudy83% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -4.3 | |
| J.Ford24% | 2 | 6% | 1 | -1 | -1.5 |
Defense M.Garrett 5 sacks, C.Schwesinger 1 INT, A.Wright 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 0/1 FG
Patriots
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Maye100% | 18/24 | 282 | 3 | 1 | 6 | +6.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R.Stevenson74% | 14 | 40% | 34 | -5.4 | |
| T.Henderson21% | 10 | 29% | 75 | -0.7 | |
| D.Maye100% | 7 | 20% | 50 | -1.0 | |
| D.Douglas21% | 2 | 6% | 3 | -0.2 | |
| T.Jennings7% | 2 | 6% | 15 | +1.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Hollins72% | 7 | 30% | 7 | 89 | +5.2 | |
| S.Diggs51% | 5 | 22% | 3 | 14 | 1 | -2.8 |
| K.Boutte74% | 5 | 22% | 3 | 75 | 1 | +4.0 |
| A.Hooper57% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 38 | +2.7 | |
| R.Stevenson74% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 15 | +1.8 | |
| H.Henry76% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | 1 | +1.3 |
| D.Douglas21% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 44 | +2.9 |
Defense R.Spillane 1 INT, J.Hawkins 1 INT, A.Jennings 1 sack · Kicking A.Borregales 3/3 FG (long 42)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Patriots score a touchdown on 61% of red zone trips (11th). Browns allow 63% (22nd).
Deep middle is open
Browns are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +0.50 EPA per attempt. Patriots send 5% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Patriots take a sack on 10% of dropbacks (29th). Browns get home on 10% (3rd). League average is 7%.
EPA per play
Call this one even. Patriots average +0.09 EPA per play (5th). Browns allow -0.09 (4th). League average is +0.01.
The Patriots lead the series 11–2 since 1999. They have won the last 6. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2025 · Wk 8 | CLE 13 at NE 32 |
| 2022 · Wk 6 | NE 38 at CLE 15 |
| 2021 · Wk 10 | CLE 7 at NE 45 |
| 2019 · Wk 8 | CLE 13 at NE 27 |
| 2016 · Wk 5 | NE 33 at CLE 13 |
2025 records
| Browns | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–12 | 14–3 |
| Division | 2–4 | 5–1 |
| Conference | 4–8 | 9–3 |
| Other conference | 1–4 | 5–0 |
| Home | 3–6 | 6–3 |
| Away | 2–6 | 8–0 |
| Last 5 | LLLWW | WLWWW |
| Streak | Won 2 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 16.4 – 22.3 | 28.8 – 18.8 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Browns' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NE off | Favors NE · Favors CLE | CLE def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#5 | -0.09#4 | +0.01 | |
| Success rate | 46%#7 | 40%#4 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.1#3 | 4.9#5 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 12%#4 | 9%#13 | 10% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.17#5 | -0.13#3 | +0.01 | |
| Sack rate | 10%#29 | 10%#3 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.10#27 | -0.07#15 | -0.05 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.3#16 | 4.2#17 | 4.3 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 41%#13 | 37%#8 | 40% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 61%#11 | 63%#22 | 59% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 160#7 | 110#1 | 140 | |
| TE yards per game | 56#14 | 52#16 | 53 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.4#19 | 7.1#14 | 7.3 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 36#10 | 27#8 | 32 | |
Patriots: EPA per throw
Browns: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.