Giants offensevsCowboys defense

The Giants won 28–20; their low point was 38% at Q1 14:54. The Cowboys had been 61% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 0:40: J.Dart pass deep left to M.Nabers ran ob at DAL 38 for 16 yards (45% → 54%). The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:25, 13 points for the Giants.

The plays that swung it

1. 1Q2 0:25NYGJ.Dart pass short right to I.Likely for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.56% → 69%+13
2. 2Q2 9:57DALD.Prescott pass incomplete deep right to G.Pickens (G.Newsome) [B.Burns]. PENALTY on NYG-G.Newsome, Defensive Pass Interference, 38 yards,…34% → 45%+11
3. 3Q1 9:38NYGJ.Dart left end ran ob at DAL 37 for 22 yards (D.Overshown). PENALTY on DAL-D.Overshown, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 37.46% → 56%+11
4. 4Q2 0:58NYGD.Prescott pass deep right INTERCEPTED by J.Holland at NYG 45. J.Holland ran ob at NYG 45 for no gain.40% → 50%+10
5. 5Q2 2:00DALT.Tracy left end to DAL 21 for 8 yards (Q.Williams). FUMBLES (Q.Williams), RECOVERED by DAL-S.Revel at DAL 19. S.Revel to DAL 16 for -3 yards…49% → 58%+9
6. ★Q2 0:40NYGJ.Dart pass deep left to M.Nabers ran ob at DAL 38 for 16 yards.turning point45% → 54%+9

Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.