2026
Week 1 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium
vs
Steelers offensevsFalcons defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Steelers, 8 for Falcons. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Steelers won 20–13 and were favored the whole way, never below 55%. The biggest single swing came at Q4 14:16, 18 points for the Steelers.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 14:16PITC.Rush pass short right intended for Bi.Robinson INTERCEPTED by T.Watt at ATL 35. T.Watt for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.74% → 92%
- 2Q2 12:17PITC.Rush pass deep middle intended for J.Dotson INTERCEPTED by J.Brisker at ATL 41. J.Brisker pushed ob at ATL 31 for 10 yards (M.Bergeron).56% → 73%
- 3Q1 2:48ATLA.Rodgers pass short right to J.Warren to PIT 27 for no gain (M.Hughes, C.Thomas). FUMBLES (C.Thomas), RECOVERED by ATL-D.Deablo at PIT 25.25% → 36%
- 4Q1 1:19ATLC.Rush pass short right to Bi.Robinson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.32% → 43%
- 5Q2 14:24PITA.Rodgers pass incomplete deep right to R.Wilson. PENALTY on ATL-Aj.Terrell, Defensive Pass Interference, 37 yards, enforced at PIT 37 - No Play.55% → 66%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
D.London led the Falcons at +1.3 EPA (2 catches for 29). P.Freiermuth led the Steelers at +3.7 EPA (5 catches for 46).
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Rush | 12/22 | 143 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -15.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson77% | 21 | 68% | 83 | -2.1 | |
| B.Robinson25% | 9 | 29% | 31 | -1.1 | |
| D.London98% | 1 | 3% | 6 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson77% | 10 | 53% | 8 | 90 | 1 | -2.1 |
| D.London98% | 4 | 21% | 2 | 29 | +0.7 | |
| J.Dotson63% | 3 | 16% | 1 | 19 | -4.6 | |
| O.Zaccheaus30% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 5 | -0.1 | |
| K.Pitts63% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 |
Defense Z.Smith 2 sacks · Kicking N.Folk 2/4 FG (long 51)
Steelers
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Rodgers100% | 24/40 | 221 | 1 | 2 | -7.8 | |
| C.Johnston | 0/1 | 0 | -1.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Warren37% | 10 | 48% | 46 | -1.2 | |
| R.Dowdle58% | 8 | 38% | 15 | -3.3 | |
| A.Rodgers100% | 3 | 14% | -3 | -1.4 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Metcalf96% | 10 | 27% | 4 | 40 | -5.4 | |
| J.Warren37% | 6 | 16% | 5 | 27 | -5.0 | |
| R.Wilson55% | 6 | 16% | 3 | 26 | -1.1 | |
| R.Dowdle58% | 5 | 14% | 2 | 6 | -3.3 | |
| P.Freiermuth73% | 5 | 14% | 5 | 46 | 1 | +3.7 |
| M.Pittman88% | 3 | 8% | 3 | 58 | +3.5 | |
| D.Washington64% | 2 | 5% | 2 | 18 | +0.6 |
Defense T.Watt 2 sacks and 1 INT, A.Highsmith 2 sacks, J.Brisker 1 INT · Kicking C.Boswell 2/3 FG (long 43)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Steelers average 5.2 yards per carry (2nd). Falcons allow 4.6 (26th).
Deep left is open
Falcons are worst against deep left throws, allowing +0.17 EPA per attempt. Steelers send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Steelers gain -0.11 EPA per dropback (26th). Falcons allow +0.00 (14th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Steelers succeed on 42% of plays (19th) against a defense that allows 44% (18th).
The Steelers lead the series 7–1–1 since 1999. They have won the last 6. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 1 | ATL 13 at PIT 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 1 | PIT 18 at ATL 10 |
| 2022 · Wk 13 | PIT 19 at ATL 16 |
| 2018 · Wk 5 | ATL 17 at PIT 41 |
| 2014 · Wk 15 | PIT 27 at ATL 20 |
2026 records
| Falcons | Steelers | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 6–2 |
| Division | 1–2 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 3–3 | 3–2 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 3–0 |
| Home | 1–3 | 4–0 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WLLWL | LWWWW |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Won 4 |
| Points a game | 21.4 – 23.6 | 22.5 – 18.0 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Falcons' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | PIT off | Favors PIT · Favors ATL | ATL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.03#20 | -0.04#11 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#19 | 44%#18 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#19 | 5.3#13 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#13 | 9%#13 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.11#26 | +0.00#14 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#21 | 6%#20 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | +0.11#1 | -0.08#14 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 5.2#2 | 4.6#26 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 39%#20 | 42%#18 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 50%#28 | 63%#17 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 126#25 | 150#20 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 61#12 | 55#17 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.0#11 | 7.6#16 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 47#6 | 33#17 | 32 | |
Steelers: EPA per throw
Falcons: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.