2026
Week 2 · Sunday 4:25 PM ET · AT&T Stadium
vs
Cowboys offensevsCommanders defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Cowboys, 7 for Commanders. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Cowboys won 37–20 and were favored the whole way, never below 60%. The biggest single swing came at Q2 0:03, 16 points for the Cowboys.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q2 0:03WASJ.Daniels pass incomplete short right [J.Bullard]. WAS-J.Daniels was injured during the play.62% → 78%
- 2Q3 7:15WASM.Mariota pass short left to D.Brown to WAS 18 for -6 yards (J.Barham). FUMBLES (J.Barham), RECOVERED by DAL-D.Winters at WAS 18. D.Winters ran ob…81% → 90%
- 3Q3 14:27WASM.Mariota pass short right to T.McLaurin to DAL 30 for 26 yards (J.Thompson; J.Barham).23% → 29%
- 4Q1 2:24WASJ.Daniels pass deep right to T.McLaurin to WAS 46 for 24 yards (M.Bell).17% → 23%
- 5Q2 9:59DALD.Prescott pass short middle to J.Ferguson for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.85% → 91%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Mariota led the Commanders at +6.7 EPA (11 of 16 for 111). D.Prescott led the Cowboys at +17.0 EPA (26 of 31 for 279).
Commanders
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Daniels55% | 11/17 | 96 | 1 | +0.2 | ||
| M.Mariota45% | 11/16 | 111 | 1 | +6.7 | ||
| D.Brown55% | 1/1 | 0 | -0.5 | |||
| A.Williams49% | 0/1 | 0 | -0.6 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Croskey-Merritt37% | 12 | 38% | 43 | -1.4 | |
| R.White52% | 7 | 22% | 43 | +3.6 | |
| J.Daniels55% | 7 | 22% | 69 | +3.4 | |
| K.Allen8% | 5 | 16% | 24 | -2.1 | |
| M.Mariota45% | 1 | 3% | 3 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.McLaurin70% | 9 | 26% | 2 | 50 | +1.9 | |
| S.Diggs51% | 6 | 18% | 5 | 47 | 2 | +5.6 |
| D.Brown55% | 6 | 18% | 4 | 21 | -5.6 | |
| R.White52% | 6 | 18% | 6 | 40 | +0.9 | |
| A.Williams49% | 3 | 9% | 3 | 24 | +1.7 | |
| T.Burks30% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| C.Yankoff30% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 14 | +0.8 | |
| B.Sinnott68% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | +0.3 | |
| J.Croskey-Merritt37% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 5 | 0.0 |
Defense J.Kinlaw 1 sack, K.Chaisson 1 sack · Kicking D.Stevens 2/3 FG (51 no good), 2/2 XP, 8 pts
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 26/31 | 279 | 4 | 2 | +15.1 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams80% | 12 | 57% | 30 | -3.7 | |
| D.Prescott100% | 4 | 19% | 26 | +1.9 | |
| E.Demercado16% | 3 | 14% | 8 | -0.8 | |
| K.Turpin9% | 1 | 5% | 1 | -0.5 | |
| H.Luepke18% | 1 | 5% | 1 | +0.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Lamb75% | 9 | 29% | 8 | 153 | 2 | +11.4 |
| G.Pickens76% | 8 | 26% | 6 | 40 | +0.5 | |
| R.Flournoy76% | 6 | 19% | 5 | 23 | +0.2 | |
| J.Williams80% | 4 | 13% | 3 | 20 | +0.2 | |
| J.Ferguson60% | 4 | 13% | 4 | 43 | 2 | +6.5 |
Defense no sacks or interceptions · Kicking B.Aubrey 3/3 FG, 4/4 XP, 13 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Third downs favor Cowboys
Cowboys convert 50% of third downs (3rd). Commanders allow 44% (26th).
Deep right is open
Commanders are worst against deep right throws, allowing +1.19 EPA per attempt. Cowboys send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Ground game stalls
Cowboys average 3.7 yards per carry (24th). Commanders allow 3.5 (5th).
Yards per play
Call this one even. Cowboys gain 5.4 yards per play (19th). Commanders give up 5.4 (17th), with the league at 5.4.
The Cowboys lead the series 39–16 since 1999. They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 2 | WAS 20 at DAL 37 |
| 2025 · Wk 17 | DAL 30 at WAS 23 |
| 2025 · Wk 7 | WAS 22 at DAL 44 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | WAS 23 at DAL 19 |
| 2024 · Wk 12 | DAL 34 at WAS 26 |
2026 records
| Commanders | Cowboys | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2–4–1 | 3–5 |
| Division | 1–2–1 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 2–3–1 | 2–4 |
| Other conference | 0–1 | 1–1 |
| Home | 2–1–1 | 1–3 |
| Away | 0–3 | 2–2 |
| Last 5 | WLTLW | WLLWL |
| Streak | Won 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 22.7 – 26.0 | 27.4 – 26.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Commanders' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | DAL off | Favors DAL · Favors WAS | WAS def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.09#7 | +0.03#21 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 47%#9 | 46%#27 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.4#19 | 5.4#17 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#29 | 8%#8 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.15#7 | +0.02#17 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 4%#2 | 6%#19 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.02#10 | -0.08#16 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#24 | 3.5#5 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 50%#3 | 44%#26 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#10 | 79%#29 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 207#2 | 149#18 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 32#28 | 75#30 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 5.8#26 | 8.0#22 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 17#30 | 36#22 | 32 | |
Cowboys: EPA per throw
Commanders: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.