2026
Week 4 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Reliant Stadium
vs
Texans offensevsCowboys defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Texans, 8 for Cowboys. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Cowboys won 34–30 from as low as 14% (Q3 10:50, down 23–13). The Texans had been 60% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 0:58: D.Prescott pass short left to C.Lamb to HOU 34 for 8 yards (K.Lassiter) (40% → 57%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 2:34, 23 points for the Texans.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 2:34HOUC.Stroud pass short right to D.Schultz to DAL 25 for 2 yards. Lateral to D.Montgomery pushed ob at DAL 6 for 19 yards (D.Winters; A.Speed).39% → 62%
- 2Q4 0:58DALD.Prescott pass short left to C.Lamb to HOU 34 for 8 yards (K.Lassiter).turning point40% → 57%
- 3Q4 0:52DALD.Prescott pass deep left to G.Pickens pushed ob at HOU 12 for 22 yards (R.Blankenship).57% → 73%
- 4Q4 4:11HOUC.Stroud pass deep right to J.Noel to DAL 23 for 22 yards (C.Downs).39% → 54%
- 5Q4 0:43DALD.Prescott pass short middle to C.Lamb for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN.71% → 87%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
C.Lamb led the Cowboys at +12.3 EPA (17 catches for 189). C.Stroud led the Texans at +16.1 EPA (21 of 31 for 347).
Cowboys
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Prescott100% | 32/45 | 335 | 1 | 3 | +9.8 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Williams74% | 19 | 76% | 62 | 3 | +2.8 |
| T.Goodson21% | 3 | 12% | 12 | +0.4 | |
| D.Prescott100% | 2 | 8% | 7 | -1.3 | |
| C.Lamb86% | 1 | 4% | -6 | -1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Lamb86% | 21 | 49% | 17 | 189 | 1 | +13.6 |
| J.Williams74% | 5 | 12% | 5 | 21 | -1.8 | |
| R.Flournoy74% | 5 | 12% | 4 | 37 | +3.7 | |
| J.Ferguson71% | 4 | 9% | 3 | 11 | -0.1 | |
| G.Pickens86% | 3 | 7% | 2 | 75 | +3.9 | |
| J.Mingo18% | 2 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -1.7 | |
| T.Goodson21% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| H.Luepke12% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 2 | -1.2 | |
| B.Spann-Ford40% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense R.Gary 1 sack, Q.Williams 1 sack · Kicking B.Aubrey 2/4 FG (long 50)
Texans
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Stroud100% | 21/31 | 347 | 2 | 2 | +15.2 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Montgomery56% | 10 | 53% | 24 | -3.6 | |
| W.Marks44% | 6 | 32% | 22 | 1 | -0.3 |
| C.Stroud100% | 2 | 11% | 12 | +0.9 | |
| J.Noel62% | 1 | 5% | 4 | -0.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N.Collins69% | 8 | 31% | 7 | 118 | 2 | +9.4 |
| X.Hutchinson31% | 5 | 19% | 3 | 46 | +2.2 | |
| K.Boutte62% | 4 | 15% | 3 | 36 | +1.8 | |
| J.Noel62% | 3 | 12% | 3 | 85 | +4.7 | |
| D.Schultz64% | 2 | 8% | 2 | 9 | +3.1 | |
| F.Moreau36% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 1 | -0.5 | |
| B.Jordan9% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 13 | +1.3 | |
| C.Stover24% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 20 | +1.3 | |
| W.Marks44% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense J.Hansen 1 sack, J.Clowney 0.5 sacks, D.Hunter 0.5 sacks, W.Jr. 0.5 sacks · Kicking K.Fairbairn 3/3 FG (long 54)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Cowboys give up 164 yards a game to wide receivers (26th), against a league average of 147. Texans' wide receivers produce 180 (6th).
Short middle is open
Cowboys are worst against short middle throws, allowing +0.59 EPA per attempt. Texans send 23% of their throws there.
Checkdowns go nowhere
Cowboys give up 27 yards a game to running backs (10th), against a league average of 32. Texans' running backs produce 21 (26th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Texans succeed on 42% of plays (17th) against a defense that allows 46% (28th).
The Cowboys lead the series 5–3 since 1999 (they first met in 2002). This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | DAL 34 at HOU 30 |
| 2024 · Wk 11 | HOU 34 at DAL 10 |
| 2022 · Wk 14 | HOU 23 at DAL 27 |
| 2018 · Wk 5 · OT | DAL 16 at HOU 19 |
| 2014 · Wk 5 · OT | HOU 17 at DAL 20 |
2026 records
| Cowboys | Texans | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Division | 2–1 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 2–4 | 2–3 |
| Other conference | 1–1 | 0–2 |
| Home | 1–3 | 0–4 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WLLWL | LLWWL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 27.4 – 26.6 | 23.6 – 24.3 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Cowboys' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | HOU off | Favors HOU · Favors DAL | DAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.02#13 | +0.13#31 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#17 | 46%#28 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#10 | 6.1#30 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 10%#12 | 11%#27 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.11#13 | +0.21#30 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 6%#11 | 6%#25 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.15#25 | -0.01#29 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.4#29 | 5.1#31 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 38%#25 | 53%#31 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 58%#19 | 70%#26 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 180#6 | 164#26 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 65#8 | 53#16 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 9.0#5 | 7.1#14 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 21#26 | 27#10 | 32 | |
Texans: EPA per throw
Cowboys: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.