2026
Week 4 · Monday 8:15 PM ET · Caesars Superdome
vs
Falcons offensevsSaints defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Falcons, 7 for Saints. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Falcons won 45–24; their low point was 47% at Q1 15:00. The Saints had been 52% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q1 14:22: M.Penix pass short left to A.Hooper to ATL 41 for 9 yards (J.Sanker) (50% → 51%). The biggest single swing came at Q1 2:52, 12 points for the Falcons.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q1 2:52NOK.Miller left guard to NO 23 for 3 yards (L.London). Atlanta challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. K.Miller…63% → 75%
- 2Q1 13:43ATLBi.Robinson left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.51% → 60%
- 3Q1 5:08NOD.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left62% → 70%
- 4Q1 0:44NOT.Shough pass deep left to C.Olave to ATL 10 for 44 yards (X.Watts) [Y.Abdullah].24% → 30%
- 5Q1 9:19NOT.Shough pass deep right to J.Johnson pushed ob at NO 34 for 23 yards (C.Henderson) [Z.Harrison].32% → 38%
- ★Q1 14:22ATLM.Penix pass short left to A.Hooper to ATL 41 for 9 yards (J.Sanker).turning point50% → 51%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
M.Jr. led the Falcons at +10.7 EPA (15 of 20 for 223). C.Olave led the Saints at +7.2 EPA (8 catches for 116).
Falcons
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Jr.100% | 15/20 | 223 | 1 | 1 | +10.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Robinson60% | 19 | 54% | 145 | 2 | +6.4 |
| B.Robinson42% | 14 | 40% | 62 | 3 | +5.6 |
| M.Jr.100% | 2 | 6% | -2 | 0.0 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.London89% | 6 | 30% | 5 | 96 | +6.9 | |
| K.Pitts51% | 3 | 15% | 3 | 47 | +3.7 | |
| J.Dotson63% | 3 | 15% | 2 | 54 | 1 | +3.6 |
| B.Robinson60% | 2 | 10% | 1 | 2 | -0.6 | |
| Z.Branch23% | 2 | 10% | 2 | 10 | +0.3 | |
| A.Hooper23% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 9 | +0.8 | |
| O.Zaccheaus37% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.9 | |
| C.Woerner58% | 1 | 5% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| B.Robinson42% | 1 | 5% | 1 | 5 | +0.1 |
Defense S.Ebukam 1 sack, X.Watts 0.5 sacks, H.Jr. 0.5 sacks · Kicking N.Folk 1/1 FG, 6/6 XP, 9 pts
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Shough100% | 30/48 | 286 | 1 | 2 | +0.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Kamara38% | 7 | 37% | 23 | 2 | +3.1 |
| K.Miller26% | 6 | 32% | 9 | -8.2 | |
| C.Donaldson38% | 3 | 16% | 18 | +0.7 | |
| T.Shough100% | 2 | 11% | 5 | +0.0 | |
| B.Brown4% | 1 | 5% | -5 | -1.3 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave86% | 12 | 26% | 8 | 116 | +7.2 | |
| D.Vele89% | 9 | 19% | 6 | 54 | 1 | +4.0 |
| J.Johnson78% | 8 | 17% | 6 | 59 | +2.2 | |
| A.Kamara38% | 7 | 15% | 5 | 35 | -0.3 | |
| B.Lance85% | 5 | 11% | 1 | 7 | -4.8 | |
| K.Miller26% | 3 | 6% | 2 | 10 | -1.3 | |
| C.Donaldson38% | 2 | 4% | 2 | 5 | -0.4 | |
| T.Welch9% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.6 |
Defense T.Wilson 1 sack · Kicking D.Carlson 1/2 FG (52 no good), 3/3 XP, 6 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Ground game edge
Falcons average 4.7 yards per carry (5th). Saints allow 4.8 (30th).
Deep left is open
Saints are worst against deep left throws, allowing +1.21 EPA per attempt. Falcons send 7% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Pressure problem
Falcons take a sack on 7% of dropbacks (19th). Saints get home on 7% (11th). League average is 7%.
EPA per play
Call this one even. Falcons average -0.10 EPA per play (29th). Saints allow +0.08 (27th). League average is +0.00.
The Saints lead the series 32–23 since 1999. The Falcons have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | ATL 45 at NO 24 |
| 2025 · Wk 18 | NO 17 at ATL 19 |
| 2025 · Wk 12 | ATL 24 at NO 10 |
| 2024 · Wk 10 | ATL 17 at NO 20 |
| 2024 · Wk 4 | NO 24 at ATL 26 |
2026 records
| Falcons | Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3–5 | 2–5 |
| Division | 1–2 | 0–1 |
| Conference | 3–3 | 1–3 |
| Other conference | 0–2 | 1–2 |
| Home | 1–3 | 0–4 |
| Away | 2–2 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WLLWL | LLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 21.4 – 23.6 | 23.1 – 27.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Falcons' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | ATL off | Favors ATL · Favors NO | NO def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.10#29 | +0.08#27 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 43%#15 | 49%#31 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.6#13 | 6.0#28 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#16 | 11%#28 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.18#29 | +0.09#23 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 7%#19 | 7%#11 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.02#9 | +0.04#31 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 4.7#5 | 4.8#30 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 35%#29 | 51%#30 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 64%#14 | 60%#15 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 133#21 | 144#16 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 37#26 | 68#27 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 6.5#25 | 8.9#28 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 30#18 | 38#24 | 32 | |
Falcons: EPA per throw
Saints: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.