2026
Week 4 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Paycor Stadium
vs
Bengals offensevsJaguars defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Bengals, 7 for Jaguars. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Jaguars won 22–17; their low point was 36% at Q1 13:06. The Bengals had been 56% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q2 4:19: C.Little 28 yard field goal is GOOD (50% → 56%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:56, 25 points for the Jaguars.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:56CINJ.Burrow pass short middle to C.Brown to JAX 12 for 9 yards (R.Lane).73% → 98%
- 2Q4 14:16CINJ.Burrow pass short right intended for M.Tinsley INTERCEPTED by F.Oluokun at JAX 10. F.Oluokun to JAX 15 for 5 yards (M.Tinsley).53% → 77%
- 3Q2 2:00CINJ.Burrow pass short middle intended for D.Meyers INTERCEPTED by J.Lewis [J.Hines-Allen] at JAX 37. J.Lewis ran ob at CIN 18 for 45 yards (C.Brown).53% → 69%
- 4Q4 1:32CINJ.Burrow pass deep right to D.Meyers to JAX 21 for 15 yards (B.Combs).31% → 43%
- 5Q3 1:58CINJ.Burrow pass deep right to D.Meyers to CIN 49 for 29 yards (R.Lane).25% → 35%
- ★Q2 4:19JAXC.Little 28 yard field goal is GOODturning point50% → 56%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. Each play is tagged with the team that had the ball; the bar names the team it helped. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
T.Lawrence led the Jaguars at +9.6 EPA (18 of 23 for 227). J.Burrow led the Bengals at +7.9 EPA (39 of 54 for 428).
Jaguars
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Lawrence100% | 18/23 | 227 | 1 | 4 | +9.3 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Tuten59% | 17 | 63% | 73 | -0.5 | |
| C.Jr.25% | 6 | 22% | 35 | 1 | +1.2 |
| T.Lawrence100% | 3 | 11% | 0 | +0.4 | |
| P.Washington80% | 1 | 4% | 3 | -0.2 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B.Strange87% | 8 | 35% | 7 | 95 | +6.0 | |
| J.Meyers82% | 4 | 17% | 3 | 33 | +2.0 | |
| P.Washington80% | 3 | 13% | 1 | 7 | -2.1 | |
| B.Jr.62% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 17 | 1 | +2.8 |
| B.Tuten59% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 18 | +0.8 | |
| J.Cameron36% | 2 | 9% | 2 | 42 | +3.7 | |
| N.Boerkircher34% | 2 | 9% | 1 | 15 | +0.4 |
Defense J.Lewis 1 INT, F.Oluokun 1 INT, A.Armstead 1 sack, D.Striggow 1 sack · Kicking C.Little 3/3 FG, 1/1 XP, 10 pts
Bengals
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Burrow100% | 39/54 | 428 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +7.4 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Brown79% | 9 | 60% | 10 | -2.6 | |
| S.Perine36% | 3 | 20% | 7 | -2.1 | |
| J.Burrow100% | 3 | 20% | 6 | 1 | +0.6 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Higgins79% | 16 | 30% | 11 | 157 | +7.0 | |
| C.Brown79% | 11 | 21% | 11 | 71 | -0.7 | |
| D.Meyers89% | 9 | 17% | 7 | 82 | +1.0 | |
| M.Tinsley53% | 7 | 13% | 3 | 49 | -4.0 | |
| M.Gesicki62% | 5 | 9% | 3 | 40 | 1 | +3.3 |
| J.Chase20% | 3 | 6% | 3 | 27 | +5.1 | |
| S.Perine36% | 1 | 2% | 0 | 0 | -0.5 | |
| T.Hudson41% | 1 | 2% | 1 | 2 | -0.5 |
Defense D.Lawrence 1 sack, B.Mafe 1 sack, M.Murphy 1 sack, K.Jenkins 1 sack · Kicking E.McPherson 1/1 FG, 2/2 XP, 5 pts
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Jaguars give up 196 yards a game to wide receivers (31st), against a league average of 147. Bengals' wide receivers produce 211 (1st).
Deep right is open
Jaguars are worst against deep right throws, allowing +0.87 EPA per attempt. Bengals send 11% of their throws there.
Ground game stalls
Bengals average 3.7 yards per carry (26th). Jaguars allow 3.4 (4th).
EPA per play
Call this one even. Bengals average +0.12 EPA per play (5th). Jaguars allow -0.10 (4th). League average is +0.00.
The Jaguars lead the series 10–9 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 4 | JAX 22 at CIN 17 |
| 2025 · Wk 2 | JAX 27 at CIN 31 |
| 2023 · Wk 13 · OT | CIN 34 at JAX 31 |
| 2021 · Wk 4 | JAX 21 at CIN 24 |
| 2020 · Wk 4 | JAX 25 at CIN 33 |
2026 records
| Jaguars | Bengals | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5–2 | 5–2 |
| Division | 1–1 | 1–1 |
| Conference | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Other conference | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Home | 4–1 | 2–1 |
| Away | 1–1 | 3–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWLW | LLWWW |
| Streak | Won 1 | Won 3 |
| Points a game | 28.0 – 15.9 | 29.4 – 22.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Jaguars' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CIN off | Favors CIN · Favors JAX | JAX def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | +0.12#5 | -0.10#4 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 50%#2 | 42%#11 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 6.0#6 | 5.6#23 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 9%#21 | 8%#6 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.23#5 | -0.06#7 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#8 | 6%#21 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.13#22 | -0.19#1 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.7#26 | 3.4#4 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 55%#1 | 37%#9 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 68%#9 | 45%#6 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 211#1 | 196#31 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 54#17 | 32#1 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.0#21 | 6.7#9 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 37#10 | 36#23 | 32 | |
Bengals: EPA per throw
Jaguars: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.