2026
Week 5 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Caesars Superdome
vs
Saints offensevsVikings defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 7 games for Saints, 7 for Vikings. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Vikings won 23–13; their low point was 38% at Q2 3:05. The game turned for good at Q3 15:00: W.Reichard kicks 59 yards from MIN 35 to NO 6. J.Price to NO 29 for 23 yards (J.Golday). FUMBLES (J.Golday), RECOVERED by MIN-J.Jones at NO 37 (49% → 64%). The biggest single swing came at Q3 2:49, 32 points for the Saints.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q3 2:49NOK.Murray pass short left to M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (M.Emerson; P.Werner). FUMBLES (M.Emerson), RECOVERED by NO-J.Sanker at NO 13. J.Sanker…14% → 45%
- 2Q3 15:00MINW.Reichard kicks 59 yards from MIN 35 to NO 6. J.Price to NO 29 for 23 yards (J.Golday). FUMBLES (J.Golday), RECOVERED by MIN-J.Jones at NO 37.turning point49% → 64%
- 3Q1 0:50NOA.Jones up the middle to NO 7 for 3 yards (K.Boyd). FUMBLES (K.Boyd), RECOVERED by NO-C.Young at NO 7. C.Young to NO 34 for 27 yards (T.Felton).26% → 39%
- 4Q3 12:13MINK.Murray pass short left to J.Jefferson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.66% → 79%
- 5Q2 0:32NOK.Murray sacked at NO 47 for -8 yards (sack split by C.Young and C.Granderson).49% → 59%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
K.Murray led the Vikings at +11.1 EPA (24 of 30 for 229). C.Olave led the Saints at +3.0 EPA (4 catches for 46).
Vikings
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Murray100% | 24/30 | 229 | 1 | 2 | +8.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Jones87% | 25 | 69% | 113 | 1 | -7.8 |
| K.Murray100% | 10 | 28% | 51 | +2.2 | |
| J.Jefferson89% | 1 | 3% | -11 | -1.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Jefferson89% | 7 | 24% | 6 | 79 | 1 | +5.5 |
| G.Bartholomew62% | 6 | 21% | 5 | 33 | +1.6 | |
| M.Price20% | 4 | 14% | 3 | 20 | -9.9 | |
| A.Jones87% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 4 | -1.7 | |
| T.Felton66% | 3 | 10% | 2 | 27 | +0.8 | |
| T.Hockenson3% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 7 | +0.6 | |
| J.Jennings69% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 | |
| D.Dallas7% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 11 | +2.7 | |
| J.Jones8% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 32 | +2.1 | |
| B.Yurosek55% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 10 | +1.3 | |
| D.Claiborne6% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 6 | -0.4 |
Defense B.Murphy 2 INT, A.Ginkel 1 sack · Kicking W.Reichard 3/3 FG (long 55)
Saints
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Shough100% | 16/25 | 96 | 2 | 1 | -11.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Miller31% | 10 | 59% | 30 | 1 | -0.3 |
| C.Donaldson42% | 4 | 24% | 13 | -2.4 | |
| A.Kamara27% | 3 | 18% | 12 | -0.5 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.Olave91% | 6 | 25% | 4 | 46 | +3.0 | |
| D.Vele96% | 6 | 25% | 4 | 26 | +0.3 | |
| J.Johnson64% | 5 | 21% | 4 | 16 | -2.7 | |
| B.Lance42% | 3 | 13% | 0 | 0 | -7.0 | |
| A.Kamara27% | 2 | 8% | 2 | -6 | -2.8 | |
| N.Fant67% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.1 | |
| C.Donaldson42% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 7 | +0.1 |
Defense C.Granderson 1.5 sacks, C.Young 0.5 sacks
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Red zone touchdowns
Saints score a touchdown on 74% of red zone trips (2nd). Vikings allow 27% (1st).
Deep middle is open
Vikings are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.12 EPA per attempt. Saints send 3% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Passing lanes are closed
Saints gain +0.01 EPA per dropback (19th). Vikings allow -0.24 (1st).
Explosive play rate
Call this one even. Saints create explosive plays on 7% of snaps (30th). Vikings give them up at 9% (14th).
The Vikings lead the series 11–7 since 1999 (they first met in 2000). They have won the last 3. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 5 | MIN 23 at NO 13 |
| 2023 · Wk 10 | NO 19 at MIN 27 |
| 2022 · Wk 4 | MIN 28 at NO 25 |
| 2020 · Wk 16 | MIN 33 at NO 52 |
| 2019 · Wk 18 · OT · playoffs | MIN 26 at NO 20 |
2026 records
| Vikings | Saints | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6–1 | 2–5 |
| Division | 2–1 | 0–1 |
| Conference | 4–1 | 1–3 |
| Other conference | 2–0 | 1–2 |
| Home | 3–0 | 0–4 |
| Away | 3–1 | 2–1 |
| Last 5 | WWWWL | LLLWL |
| Streak | Lost 1 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 20.0 – 13.3 | 23.1 – 27.7 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Vikings' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | NO off | Favors NO · Favors MIN | MIN def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.04#22 | -0.17#1 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#22 | 37%#1 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 4.9#29 | 4.7#2 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 7%#30 | 9%#14 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | +0.01#19 | -0.24#1 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 5%#10 | 11%#1 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.16#26 | -0.11#9 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.2#31 | 4.5#25 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 43%#10 | 31%#2 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 74%#2 | 27%#1 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 162#9 | 123#6 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 51#20 | 39#4 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 8.3#10 | 6.3#6 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 33#13 | 18#3 | 32 | |
Saints: EPA per throw
Vikings: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.