2026
Week 6 · Sunday 1:00 PM ET · Huntington Bank Field
vs
Browns offensevsRavens defense
Season numbers through Week 8: 8 games for Browns, 8 for Ravens. Ranks are out of 32; #1 is the best offense or the stingiest defense.
The Browns won 13–10 from as low as 10% (Q2 1:19, down 10–0). The Ravens had been 61% favorites at kickoff. The game turned for good at Q4 2:08: (Run formation) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 46 - No Play (47% → 50%). The biggest single swing came at Q4 0:42, 24 points for the Browns.
The plays that swung it
- 1Q4 0:42CLED.Watson pass deep middle to J.Jeudy to BAL 29 for 33 yards (M.Starks).58% → 82%
- 2Q4 5:09CLED.Watson pass short middle to J.Jeudy to BAL 31 for 13 yards (M.Starks) [C.Campbell].53% → 66%
- 3Q4 2:08CLER.Eckley punts 59 yards to end zone, Touchback.50% → 60%
- 4Q4 3:44BALA.Szmyt 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left52% → 63%
- 5Q4 8:37CLEA.Estime right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.30% → 40%
- ★Q4 2:08CLE(Run formation) PENALTY on BAL, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 46 - No Play.turning point47% → 50%
Win probability is nflverse's model, which starts from the betting line and updates before every snap with the score, the clock, down, distance, field position and timeouts. A swing is the change in one team's chance across a play, in percentage points. The turning point is the play after which the winner never fell to 50% again.
J.Cuevas led the Ravens at +6.5 EPA (4 catches for 44). J.Jeudy led the Browns at +5.9 EPA (4 catches for 69).
Ravens
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Huntley100% | 19/31 | 165 | 1 | 3 | +4.7 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Henry58% | 17 | 74% | 58 | -8.9 | |
| T.Huntley100% | 5 | 22% | 28 | -0.4 | |
| Z.Flowers88% | 1 | 4% | 1 | -0.7 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z.Flowers88% | 11 | 35% | 6 | 66 | +0.7 | |
| J.Lane54% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 40 | +5.7 | |
| J.Cuevas40% | 5 | 16% | 4 | 44 | 1 | +6.5 |
| M.Andrews72% | 3 | 10% | 1 | 4 | -1.9 | |
| J.Hill42% | 3 | 10% | 3 | 9 | -1.3 | |
| D.Walker65% | 2 | 6% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| D.Henry58% | 1 | 3% | 1 | 2 | -0.4 | |
| R.Bateman30% | 1 | 3% | 0 | 0 | -0.7 |
Defense C.Campbell 1 sack, T.Hendrickson 1 sack, R.Smith 1 sack, K.Martin 1 sack · Kicking T.Loop 1/2 FG (long 34)
Browns
| Passing | C/A | Yds | TD | INT | Sk | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.Watson100% | 16/26 | 164 | 5 | -6.9 |
| Rushing | Car | Share | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.McLaughlin62% | 9 | 31% | 41 | -0.2 | |
| A.Estimé30% | 9 | 31% | 19 | 1 | -1.1 |
| D.Watson100% | 8 | 28% | 29 | +0.2 | |
| K.Concepcion81% | 2 | 7% | 2 | -1.2 | |
| M.Burton16% | 1 | 3% | 2 | +2.1 |
| Receiving | Tgt | Share | Rec | Yds | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Concepcion81% | 6 | 24% | 4 | 37 | +0.6 | |
| D.Boston92% | 5 | 20% | 1 | 15 | -2.0 | |
| J.Jeudy62% | 4 | 16% | 4 | 69 | +5.9 | |
| J.McLaughlin62% | 4 | 16% | 4 | 14 | -0.9 | |
| H.Jr.89% | 3 | 12% | 1 | 9 | -3.0 | |
| M.Burton16% | 1 | 4% | 0 | 0 | -0.8 | |
| T.Wallace16% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 12 | +0.7 | |
| B.Whiteheart27% | 1 | 4% | 1 | 8 | +0.6 |
Defense M.Collins 1 sack, Q.Williams 1 sack, I.McGuire 1 sack · Kicking A.Szmyt 2/3 FG (long 48)
Each player's line for this game from nflverse's weekly stats; the percentage beside his name is his share of the offense's snaps. Share is his part of the team's carries or targets in this game. Defense lists sacks and interceptions; kicking lists field goals.
Wideouts feast
Ravens give up 178 yards a game to wide receivers (28th), against a league average of 147. Browns' wide receivers produce 129 (23rd).
Deep middle is open
Ravens are worst against deep middle throws, allowing +1.08 EPA per attempt. Browns send 4% of their throws there. That is a small part of their offense so far.
Tight ends go quiet
Ravens give up 6.0 targets a game to tight ends (2nd), against a league average of 7.6. Browns' tight ends produce 7.0 (20th).
Success rate
Call this one even. Browns succeed on 42% of plays (18th) against a defense that allows 44% (21st).
The Ravens lead the series 39–16 since 1999. This game is the latest meeting.
The last 5
| 2026 · Wk 6 | BAL 10 at CLE 13 |
| 2025 · Wk 11 | BAL 23 at CLE 16 |
| 2025 · Wk 2 | CLE 17 at BAL 41 |
| 2024 · Wk 18 | CLE 10 at BAL 35 |
| 2024 · Wk 8 | BAL 24 at CLE 29 |
2026 records
| Ravens | Browns | |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4–4 | 5–3 |
| Division | 0–2 | 2–1 |
| Conference | 2–3 | 3–3 |
| Other conference | 2–1 | 2–0 |
| Home | 1–2 | 3–0 |
| Away | 3–2 | 2–3 |
| Last 5 | WWLLL | WLWWL |
| Streak | Lost 3 | Lost 1 |
| Points a game | 22.4 – 25.4 | 17.4 – 21.6 |
Every meeting since 1999, regular season and playoffs, from nflverse's game list, which starts in 1999; the all-time series goes back further. Franchises that moved count as one team (the Raiders, Chargers and Rams). Home and away are from the Ravens' side. Records are this regular season.
| Stat | CLE off | Favors CLE · Favors BAL | BAL def allows | NFL avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | ||||
| EPA per play | -0.08#25 | +0.01#17 | +0.00 | |
| Success rate | 42%#18 | 44%#21 | 44% | |
| Yards per play | 5.1#23 | 5.4#14 | 5.4 | |
| Explosive play rate | 8%#24 | 8%#10 | 9% | |
| Passing | ||||
| Pass EPA per dropback | -0.06#23 | +0.07#21 | +0.03 | |
| Sack rate | 12%#32 | 6%#18 | 7% | |
| Running | ||||
| Run EPA per carry | -0.19#27 | -0.06#22 | -0.08 | |
| Yards per carry | 3.6#27 | 3.6#10 | 4.1 | |
| Money downs | ||||
| 3rd down conversion | 32%#30 | 40%#12 | 41% | |
| Red zone TD rate | 47%#31 | 68%#22 | 61% | |
| Targets by position | ||||
| WR yards per game | 129#23 | 178#28 | 147 | |
| TE yards per game | 57#16 | 47#11 | 55 | |
| TE targets per game | 7.0#20 | 6.0#2 | 7.6 | |
| RB receiving yards per game | 40#9 | 18#2 | 32 | |
Browns: EPA per throw
Ravens: EPA allowed per throw
Green gains more than expected, red loses value. Cells with fewer than 5 throws are grayed out.